Austin housing bubble (days on market, movers, how much)

[ScoPro]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

And we ALL know what an excellent measure of the market $6.5 million houses represent. Not to mention the $9 million ones!!!

Are they talking about those midcentury cracker boxes in Crestview?

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

Yeah. Prices are not going to drop short of a massive economic disaster. Level off is more realistic.

Well, I think they might. A small, but larger than before percentage of recent real estate purchases have been investors, especially in Austin. Many of them have seen significant appreciation. When the returns start to get flat, or considering their other investments, they may try to immediately cash out at the same time. Lot of equity out there.

This could start a ball rolling, with some regular owners thinking the same, and it could be enough of an increase in supply that would necessitate a reduction in prices.

Hope I’m wrong though.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Well, I think they might. A small, but larger than before percentage of recent real estate purchases have been investors, especially in Austin. Many of them have seen significant appreciation. When the returns start to get flat, or considering their other investments, they may try to immediately cash out at the same time. Lot of equity out there.

This could start a ball rolling, with some regular owners thinking the same, and it could be enough of an increase in supply that would necessitate a reduction in prices.

Hope I’m wrong though.

Eh, it's easy to try and make investors the scapegoat for high prices but ultimately it's about lack of supply. There aren't that many investors to make the type of impact you claim with the current trend on population. There simply needs to be more houses built. And with supply side issues being what they are, builders still have a lot of catching up to do.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

Eh, it's easy to try and make investors the scapegoat for high prices but ultimately it's about lack of supply. There aren't that many investors to make the type of impact you claim with the current trend on population. There simply needs to be more houses built. And with supply side issues being what they are, builders still have a lot of catching up to do.

Well, hopefully you are right. But I just think when there is some fear injected to a market with so much unrealized equity, you can get the situation where a whole lot of people try to cash out. Then the whole supply side grows very quickly.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by atxcio

Well, hopefully you are right. But I just think when there is some fear injected to a market with so much unrealized equity, you can get the situation where a whole lot of people try to cash out. Then the whole supply side grows very quickly.

I'd focus more on the 3%-4% population growth per year.

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/c...Dyear%20period.

[Need4Camaro]

I kinda doubt they will jump ship so easily. Probably they will just hold on to their existing properties and hault on buying new ones… Austin has been consistently providing ROI and has had a reliable appreciation rate for a long time (although now it’s on steroids) … add on to the fact that it’s still consistently attracting high wage tech jobs … but even if they did release that inventory back into the market the slight dip in prices would only be re-met with new demand from potential buyers who were previously priced out of buying… including those who were considering moving here and held off on it until they could find a better deal which will push inventory down and raise housing prices back to a stable high.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

Eh, it's easy to try and make investors the scapegoat for high prices but ultimately it's about lack of supply. There aren't that many investors to make the type of impact you claim with the current trend on population. There simply needs to be more houses built. And with supply side issues being what they are, builders still have a lot of catching up to do.

There was a good story on nbc nightly news about this and they shared a bit on both sides. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/embedde...vo142286405805

[Need4Camaro]

No empathy on my side. Consumers are not 'victim's' of property that was never theirs to begin with. You always have a choice to either buy before an area becomes unaffordable or move to an area where you can comfortably afford. Don't jump over someone elses possessions only because you feel you should be entitled to housing that was never funded by yourself in terms of its purchasing fees, agreements, construction, maintenances, taxes, and so forth. Their are legal and fair processes to obtain housing, and investors have just as much right to housing and usage thereof as consumers do. stop looking at what someone else has and focus on what you can do to get what you want.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

There was a good story on nbc nightly news about this and they shared a bit on both sides. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/embedde...vo142286405805

A little too fluffy for me and hard for me to empathize with the father also. I think a bit too much is made of this 'American Dream' nonsense. Who says it's the America Dream? I know many of my son's friends that don't care about home ownership whatsoever. And then the comment about how does one save when they're paying $2200 a month in rent made me chuckle (depends on your perspective but that's not that expensive to me). Home ownership sometimes requires sacrifices that many people aren't willing to make because as Camaro put it....too many people feel entitled and think it's their God given right to own a house.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

A little too fluffy for me and hard for me to empathize with the father also. I think a bit too much is made of this 'American Dream' nonsense. Who says it's the America Dream? I know many of my son's friends that don't care about home ownership whatsoever. And then the comment about how does one save when they're paying $2200 a month in rent made me chuckle (depends on your perspective but that's not that expensive to me). Home ownership sometimes requires sacrifices that many people aren't willing to make because as Camaro put it....too many people feel entitled and think it's their God given right to own a house.

I have some empathy. But I agree with you about the sacrifices. I’m not willing to sacrifice my nice car, living in a nice place, being able to go out with friends, pay for running activities, etc. But, for those who were sacrificing and investors are bidding things up and offering cash, that’s when it frustrates me. Like my family, who has been saving for YEARS to find the right spot…to get outbid by cash when they’ve been trying to find something for as long as they have, it hurts. But I think that’s where I and many members of the Austin forum differ, I have some emotion when it comes to this stuff. Others have none.