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Looking to purchase home in Southwest Austin Texas area, Western Oaks, Legend Oaks, prices increasing or decreasing, lack of or too much inventory, outlook for the next year
Love to hear some thoughts from people with knowledge of real estate values in the above specifice areas. There seems to be some level of inventory, but are prices increasing, decreasing, or remaining flat? What do you think the next year will bring?
We would like to buy in this area but are in NO HURRY. Based on an MSNBC report today, home equity -nationwide - has receded to the lowest levels since WWII and is expected to continue to decrease. This makes us very nervous to buy at this time.
We would love to get settled and have found a home we really like, but we made a promise to take the emotion out of the equation when buying a home.
I'm a regular person-- not a realtor -- who sold a house last month in the Villages of Western Oaks, after having it on the market about a week. It had appreciated quite a bit since we purchased it several years ago. Then I bought another house, that we love, in the New Villages of Western Oaks, that had been on the market for 15 days or so.
I cannot stress enough how harmful and damaging I think the media is. First of all, you cannot get a clear, objective view of things by watching the national news. Writing about doom and gloom in the housing market, right now, sells. This is what editors and producers want. Apocalyptic, end of the world as we know it stories keep people watching and listening to them. Is it all a big media conspiracy? Of course not. In the last several years, many pockets of people/ cities bought into an unsustainable lifestyle. Mostly these people were in California, Nevada, etc. Compound this with the loss of jobs in Michigan, and that state is also hit hard. But that is not reality everywhere. The national news attempts to create a narrative and then find many, many stories that fit into that narrative. Once that narrative is exhausted they'll move on, and find another one.
I'm sure you've heard this before. I am not saying there's a huge conspiracy to make the housing market collapse, I am saying that we all need to live our lives independently of what the current national "narrative" is on the news. I can name several narratives that were preached in times past, that never came to be. In the meantime they influenced a lot of people. My financial planner had this poster in his office he showed me. It contained Time Magazine covers for the last 40 years. Major, shocking cover stories like "THE END OF CAPITALISM?" from 1970. Or "THE POST AMERICAN WORLD" in 1979. And then various stories about the imminent total crash of the stock market throughout the early 1980s.
It's good to be cautious, but if a major housing crash and loss of home values happens, it will be 10 percent because of legitimate reasons, and 90 percent because of people --- not trying to offend here -- like you, who change the patterns of your life out of fear. Fear that is a side effect of a narrative, which temporarily infuses the media with more money and power.
Oh and to answer your question, when we decided to sell our house and buy, it was because houses in Villages of Western Oaks and in Legend Oaks had been increasing for 8 years and interest rates were low. I expect that things might be static for awhile, due to people like yourselves waiting on the sidelines. I also think it's highly possible that if the democrats win the general election and get their policies in place, we could see interest rates skyrocket, taxes go up, private enterprise reigned in, and protectionist economics strangling our economy. In short.... it might be an even worse time to buy a house later.
I'd say that if you want to get a house to live in and build equity in for awhile, do it. If you're looking to flip this house and make a lot of money on a quick investment, now might not be a good time for that.
Based on an MSNBC report today, home equity -nationwide - has receded to the lowest levels since WWII and is expected to continue to decrease. This makes us very nervous to buy at this time.
Not sure how to say this without coming across as a "typical Realtor", but I can't think of a worse source upon which to base a home purchase decision than the media.
Provided you are pre-qualified and living within your means, I can't think of any reason whatsoever that a ready and able buyer would "wait and see" in SW Austin. You've zeroed in on one of the best areas in Austin but you're blowing it by using MSNBC as your adviser.
Turn off the TV, put down the newspaper and talk to your accountant or financial adviser and see what they tell you. Then find a good quality Realtor (there are many who focus on SW Austin) and get some data and market information. Then make your pros and cons list, decide how long you know you'll stay, and make a decision that gives ZERO credibility to anything you read or hear from the news media.
The fact is, there are very few 5 year spans during which anyone has ever lost money on real estate, anywhere in the US, ever. Yes, there are geographically specific examples that prove me wrong, but very very few if you study the history and facts.
That means all these people who are waiting think that something extremely unusual and extraordinary is about to happen over the next 3 to 5 years in Austin's economy. And most could not tell you the unemployment rate in Austin, growth projections for Austin Metro, retail activity, migration statistics, etc. but instead base everything on the news.
If you know what data to study and which metrics to look at, there is absolutely no reason to be halting a purchase decision because of what MSNBC says.
(Sorry, I'm probably coming across as abrasive, but it's frustrating to hear this sort of thing constantly and to know how uneducated most buyers choose to remain)
Okay, not a realtor here, but I am a resident of SW Austin. Our little microcosm of 'now' from the 'across the street' perspective. So far this year, four houses on our street sold in <45 days, some much less, and the only two I know anything about sold for very close to their asking price, which was more (per sq. ft.) than what the houses were selling for last year. There are two other houses on the market, one of which has been on the market for longer than 45 (not sure how much) and they have recently changed real estate agencies. I have no idea what they are asking, since I don't know them well and they don't have a 'flyer box' to peek inside to see what they are asking. The other house is fairly new to the market.
Anyway, so far this year, house prices have at least crept up a little (no decline that I can tell yet). Will that carry into the future? Who knows...but there are several reasons that SW Austin is an excellent suburb type neighborhood, especially compared to other similar neighborhoods, so I expect at the very worst the are will do relatively well.
I sold a house in Circle C last June for $5K under a higher asking price in less than one day. My realtor there has also sold many houses in Circle C in well under a week in the past year and few months. Moderator cut: advertising
Last edited by Trainwreck20; 06-06-2008 at 09:22 AM..
Can't comment on the specific subdivisions you mentioned, but we have been watching the market in SW Austin for several months, have perused a lot of threads on this site going back to early 2007, and I'll share my impressions.
Some houses that have made our "favorites" list have gone pending in a very short timeframe. Others have had no apparently movement in months. And others have reduced their price, in many cases more than once, and are still on the market.
What I am starting to believe is that there are many sellers who are testing the market and are in no apparent hurry to sell, and who are priced above what the market will bear. On the other hand, there are many buyers who are hesitant to buy due to the uncertainty in the current environment. These two factors have slowed down the market, but have not resulted in across-the-board price decreases.
As you mentioned, the national media is full of bad news, which may not be as applicable to Austin as other more visible places. I also see a lot of RE agents saying that there is no downturn, that there is no downside in buying now, and that if you don't buy today you will only face higher prices tomorrow. In other words, doing their best to keep those transactions churning.
Just for balance, I'll offer this. As much as any media reports may serve to scare buyers into waiting, the influence of agents may be artificially supporting the market, which, if true, would not benefit anyone other than agents, current sellers and those who wait until the true economics of the market outweigh the artificial support. This makes it much more important (and at the same time more difficult) to ensure that any particular home is priced right.
Best Cities For Home Sellers - Forbes.com
If you can stand another "Top Ten" list that Austin graces, see the above article. Forbes considers Austin one of the best markets for home sellers right now. The article is less than two months old.
I have been watching the SW neighborhood and houses are moving faster there than they are in other Austin Suburbs. I think it may have to do with proximity to downtown and the amenities/schools. I agree with Austin Willy, many of those houses are sitting though. When down there in April, we looked at a house that is still on the market and in my opinion overpriced at 319K, yet the seller's have not brought it down. Even if they did take it down, I don't think I would purchase it because of the lot configuration.
That said, there were houses that I asked to see while I was down there that had gone on the market two weeks prior to my visit that were under contract by the time I got there. So some things move very quickly. I think the houses that are overpriced are sitting a while and those that are priced right are moving very fast.
Just for balance, I'll offer this. As much as any media reports may serve to scare buyers into waiting, the influence of agents may be artificially supporting the market, which, if true, would not benefit anyone other than agents, current sellers and those who wait until the true economics of the market outweigh the artificial support. This makes it much more important (and at the same time more difficult) to ensure that any particular home is priced right.
Believe me, agents do not out-influence the media. The media creates a headwind of misinformation and doom that is difficult to cut through. Funny, it only works on the buyers though. Sellers still think everything is great. Interesting.
And it's true that some agents think only of themselves, as they are going broke and dropping like flies from the business. We call these the "pretenders" because they only "pretend" to be valuable and can only survive in seller's markets. As soon as a market shifts, they are done and gone.
The quality and honesty of advice one receives from an agent is only as good as the quality of the effort that goes into choosing an agent. If a buyer gets misdirected or poorly instructed, it's a result of a poor agent selection process. There are plenty of us out there who give straight, unvarnished pros and cons relative to the client's specific wants and needs.
The overarching question is, can the typical buyer or seller effectively "time" a market? That is, can one watch the news, read the papers and gain knowledge that tells them to buy or not buy? In most cases, I don't think so.
When I was looking at houses in SW Austin I noticed that houses which had fresh paint and designer colors, granite, nice yards and a clean and open interior (i.e. the ones that I liked right when I walked in) sold very quickly. But, the houses that were dated, dark, had bad colors or some other decor problem sat on the market for a long time. I am thinking in particular of two houses in New Villages, and one in Circle C, that were in need of a fair amount of upgrading, and they sat on the market. However-- all the houses I saw that I really loved, sold (out from under me) almost immediately! Finally when we found a house we really liked (which btw was needed no updating), we pounced.
The overarching question is, can the typical buyer or seller effectively "time" a market? That is, can one watch the news, read the papers and gain knowledge that tells them to buy or not buy? In most cases, I don't think so.
That was not the question. The question was where prices are going, inventory, economy etc. Not whether you think someone is able to interpret the tea leaves.
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