Recession hitting Austin full-force this year - American Statesman (Houston: transplants, sales)

[Jennibc]

Yes, I read the article, including this part:

"While the short-term Texas outlook is weak, longer term prospects remain healthy," the report said. "Job growth, low business and living costs and a young, fast-growing labor force remain positives that will help in recovery."

Quit panicking.

Also read this:
"So far," the report said, "the state's economic losses have been moderate compared with the rest of the country's, which means Texas is still faring better than the nation as a whole."

[inthecut]

All the other sunbelt states are trending long-term growth as well........and will all bounce back along with Texas.....unfortunately, the only thing that concerns people is what is happening right NOW to the job market.....saying that Texas and Austin is trending long-term growth is little solace to someone snakebit right NOW in the job market......I just frankly think it unfair to give relocatees the impression that Austin is currently experiencing a hot job market, or at least one hot enough to chuck it all and make a move out there for the same......they could very well just be jumping from one frying pan to another.......Austin is going to have a VERY tight job market this year.....schools are refraining from hiring teachers, going the sub route, and getting swamped with apps even for the same.......the public sector is frozen across the board....tech is laying off liberally, and most firms are frozen in place as well.......relos should simply know what they are getting into when they chuck it all and make the move down here(Austin)...

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by Jennibc

Yes, I read the article, including this part:

"While the short-term Texas outlook is weak, longer term prospects remain healthy," the report said. "Job growth, low business and living costs and a young, fast-growing labor force remain positives that will help in recovery."

Quit panicking.

Also read this:
"So far," the report said, "the state's economic losses have been moderate compared with the rest of the country's, which means Texas is still faring better than the nation as a whole."

I heard on KUT this morning that Austin was ranked number 2 on another one of those ratings for strongest national economy, behind the Carolina Tech traingle (Charlotte? I don't remember).

It's all relative. Those of us who were around here in the mid 1980s can attest that if this is "full force", it's about like being punched in the arm "full force" by your 4 year old nephew. Meanwhile, other states are taking it on the nose full force from George Foreman.

And yes, we have some slippage yet to happen, but it won't be a melt down.

Steve

[austin-steve]

Woops, the news report said Austin 2nd fastest growing metro area:

Sixty of Michigan’s 83 counties lost population.

Raleigh-Cary, N.C., and Austin-Round Rock, Texas, were the fastest-growing metro areas with growth rates of 4.3 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.

The five metros with the biggest numerical gains were Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta and Los Angeles.

New Orleans’ population grew 2 percent to 1.1 million, still less than its pre-Hurricane Katrina population of 1.3 million.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Woops, the news report said Austin 2nd fastest growing metro area:

Regardless, Austin will grow long term.......too many talented and creative minds there....and trust me, there are few places with a pool of intelligence such as Austin has....that being said, it could be very challenging AT THE MOMENT for a relocatee to land a decent job, even in teaching and other fields that are usually looking for people.....the city of Austin is cutting back a lot on services, including library hours and purchasing......and a blanket hiring freeze......it would be very wise to wait a year or so, till things get better, if you already have a decent job somewhere else.......if you have nothing, are desperate, or have a decent nest egg, than come on down..if not, think about it hard before you move...

[llkltk]

Library hours are not being cut back, they decided against that. Why is everyone doom and gloom. If you want to move, move now, interest rates are low, everyone in Austin is still spending. I don't know what town you people live in but it's not bad at all.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by llkltk

Library hours are not being cut back, they decided against that. Why is everyone doom and gloom. If you want to move, move now, interest rates are low, everyone in Austin is still spending. I don't know what town you people live in but it's not bad at all.

I wasn't aware they decided against the library cuts. I'm very happy to hear that!.......and looking at things realistically isn't gloom and doom....
rose colored glasses is no way of looking at things either.....Austin is realistically just going through a very tough year, and they obviously will come out of it fine.........this simply might not be the best time for someone out-of-area to come here without a job......not much fun to be standing under a Mopac viaduct with a "Will work for food" sign either! Keep in mind that Austinites WITH a job are still spending......those here looking for employment,and those who have lost their jobs most assuredly are not or SHOULD not.......
Again, things WILL pick up again, but times are hard hiring-wise, and anyone who would disagree with that isn't in touch with the macro local economy, let alone the national financial and job markets.

[Trainwreck20]

everyone in Austin is still spending.

Somewhat true.....but both my wife and I have received the equivalent of a temporary 10% paycut. We are not living hand-to-mouth, so I suppose our spending has not gone down by an identical 10%, but we are paying a little more attention to what we do spend on.

[austin-steve]

it could be very challenging AT THE MOMENT for a relocatee to land a decent job

Says who? Depends on their mindset..

{start rant}
This would branch off into a whole 'nother topic, but I find the mindset you espouse that of low achiever "victims". People who think like that will of course achive less in life than those of us who ignore bad news and just go out and make things happen. But they get to choose the outcome.

I'm frankly sick and tired of all the hand wringing weenies who sit around complaining about how bad things are. I see this in the real estate business every day, agents complaining about how bad it is. My wife and I had a better year in 2008 than in 2007, and haven't had an expired or withdrawn listing in over 2 years, despite this "bad market". Other agents say "how are you doing so well in this bad market?" and I say "what bad market? This is a great market! I don't know what you're talking about".

And really, I don't know what they're talking about. I don't have time to sit around thinking like that. Like some helpless victim. My life is great, my business is great, I live in Austin Texas, I have great kids, a great wife, a profitable business, no debt, good health, etc. And it's not because I'm "lucky".

I know for a fact that anyone can do well in any environment, any economy, anywhere, period, provided they are willing to let go of limiting beliefs and go make it happen. Smart business people know that a down economy is one in which the rules are changed and the chairs reshuffled. Wealth changes hands, paradigms shift. It's the down cycles where market share changes. Some businesses and individuals make enormous strides, while others are destroyed. Some survive the shift and get stronger, others are destroyed.

Anyone can pick which outcome they want and make it happen. It's 85% mindset and action. My inlaw was laid off and found a new job in less than a week in Austin. What would you have said to him the day he got laid off? New job is less money, yes. Budget/lifestyle changes, yes. Opportunity for bigger things ahead, yes. Opportunity. Opportunity. Opportunity.

Read the book "Who Moved my Cheese". "Who Moved My Cheese?" It explains it all. It explains my mindset and why I think it's so sad that people allow negative blather to influence their success in life. It's why I don't even subscribe to cable TV or the newspaper. There is literally money laying in the streets of Austin and incredible opportunity abound for those willing to go out and gather it up instead of sitting on a pity pot moaning and groaning about what the world is doing to them.

So stop telling us how bad things are and how hard it would be to find a job in Austin. OK?

{end rant}

Steve (hoping I don't get another infraction penalty)

[ILikeSmartHippies]

Hey kids, as one of the recent re-locatee's myself, keep in mind that californians are moving from neighborhoods where we WERE paying $2 - $5 per square foot for real estate. I almost bought a condo for $650K last year in CA before deciding it was too much & picking Austin. And I'm living in what I consider an AWESOME apartment by CA standards... all for less than $1 per square foot (in SW austin FYI). So I got plenty of cash to live on. Job? Hell, this rent is so cheap I could live for years without working. (I was paying $2300 per month rent previously in CA, for a lower quality place! Only thing I have to worry about in Austin is paying a bit more for A/C!)


What I don't see is the central austin real estate holding up. It's simple math: Take an Austinite's yearly wage and multiply by 2.5 or 3. That's the maximum housing price on average, that will be snapped back to over the long term. Since people tell me wages are lower here, it stands up to simple logic that normal (i.e. non-waterfront) home (or high rise condo) prices should never exceed $300K except in a bubble. Otherwise the math doesn't work (too much LEVERAGE!).

Cheers!