The coming hi-rise condo crash in Austin

[twange]

Originally Posted by Kaira sells casas

Here's an interesting article regarding the Austin condo market:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/austi...sh-austin.html'

I'm not sure what you were trying to link to but that just took me back to the original post of this thread It's not an article but someone's observation while visiting...

As for a crash, well we are in the midst of a fairly significant downturn, so I suppose anything can happen but I posted a link comparing Austin's condo market with Miami's (a bit farther back in this thread), that I think is worth a look. The numbers suggest that Austin is nowhere close to overbuilding - most of the current projects are still selling and there aren't too many more starting in the near future.

[Jennibc]

Originally Posted by inthecut

Good points.....many feel Austin has an inferiority complex for whatever reason, and is simply trying to be a Miami, Houston, Dallas lite.....completely forgetting its Raison de Existence.....to me, its simply like bulldozing over an Artist Colony........and letting the artists that are left run away and fend for themselves....

Who are these many that feel that way?

[verybadgnome]

Charles Heimsath of Capital Market Research is a well-respected real estate researcher and is pretty optimistic about downtown residential development:

http://www.revolutionriverside.com/d...h%20buster.pdf

My only disappointment is the fact is that of these downtown dwellers only 30% work downtown.

[austin-steve]

My only disappointment is the fact is that of these downtown dwellers only 30% work downtown.

Maybe you're thinking of this backward. Once home at night, maybe the 70% who live but don't work downtown nevertheless stay downtown to eat and go out, versus the suburban dweller who gets in a car to go out for the night, perhaps to downtown, as my wife and I do occassionally.

To really know if your disappointment is justified, you'd have to know the former commuting habits of the dt dwellers, and evaluate the net change. And living downtown puts most people closer to whatever non-downtown work location they might commute to than they would be if driving from Circle C or Steiner.

I'm just thinking that if I personally lived downtown, I'd be 6 miles from office instead of 8.5 from Oak Hill, and I probably wouldn't drive again once home at night (thinking future empty nester lifestyle).

Steve

[austinite45]

Originally Posted by TexanInNYC

When we visited last December, my wife and I were struck by the number of large hi-rise projects being built in Austin, asking top dollar. Few seemed completed, meaning I'd assume that the "sales" at this point are just deposits. Also consider that, in a declining market, lots of people with deposits on condos will walk away rather than close with negative equity (at least that's what is happening in NYC). In other recent news, banks (at least here in NYC) are unwilling to underwrite a mortgage on any condo property that is less than 75% sold, under the theory that an empty building leads to unsustainably high common charges, and either the sponsor will default, or individual mortgagees will be unable to pay their pro rata increased share of the common charges. This policy limits the qualified buyers to, essentially, cash buyers. All of this puts the uncompleted condo projects on the fast lane to bankruptcy, and there's a fair number of people betting that whole projects are going to end up bank owned. Alternatively, developers are trying to make "block sales" of multiple units, at a significant discount. So here's the proposition: the Austin luxury condo segment is going to get destroyed, with ultimate sales at <50% of current prices. Discuss.

If the poor quality of construction is taken into account, I'd discount those condos by 70% of their current price levels.

If the poor quality of the neighborhood (high crime rate, loud noise, etc) is taken into account, I'd take 80% off.