Recession truly hitting Austin hard now....

[hoffdano]

Originally Posted by jobert

this had to be a typo, because the slideshow link shows an entirely different set of cities that are projected to fall filled with the usual suspects: LA, Orlando, Miami, etc.

I don't understand your list above at all.

The article cited shows cities, mostly in Florida, with falling prices.

Austin is not on that list at all.

[cls88]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

I don't understand your list above at all.

The article cited shows cities, mostly in Florida, with falling prices.

Austin is not on that list at all.

Go down to close to the end of the article, you will see the list. The poster here only copied the list.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by cls88

Go down to close to the end of the article, you will see the list. The poster here only copied the list.

Scroll down a bit further and you'll find the link to the actual 10 worst; and Austin isn't on them (they start at 23% down and go to like 50%). I think the article writer must have meant the top 5 "least worst" markets, which is why the NC and Texas cities are in the top 5. But so is Phoenix, while it is also in the worst 10 link!

Anyway, very sloppy job by the writer.

EDIT: They just fixed the link! Now the correct "worst 5" are at the bottom of the article, with Austin no longer mentioned... did someone email them or something?

[jobert]

Originally Posted by jobert

I don't quite understand, these don't show "falling prices" but rises last year, with no data to back up the premis that prices will fall:

Top 5 Places With Fast-Falling Home Prices

1. Raleigh, N.C.
(Raleigh-Cary metro area)
2008 Population: 1,088,765
2007-2008 Change: 4.29%
2. Austin, Texas
(Austin-Round Rock metro area)
2008 Population: 1,652,602
2007-2008 Change: 3.77%
3. Charlotte, N.C.
(Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C., metro area)
2008 Population: 1,701,799
2007-2008 Change: 3.36%
4. Phoenix, Ariz.
(Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro area)
2008 Population: 4,281,899
2007-2008 Change: 2.78%
5. Dallas, Texas
(Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area)
2008 Population: 6,300,006
2007-2008 Change: 2.38%

Whomever was in charge of this page must have been asleep, because the page was updated with the following revised list:
Top 5 Places With Fast-Falling Home Prices

1. Orlando, Fla.
(Orlando-Kissimmee metro area)
Price correction necessary: 48%
Median income: $36,330
Median home price: $175,200
Unemployment rate: 9.7%
Projected bottom: June 2011
2. Miami, Fla.
(Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach metro area)
Price correction necessary: 53%
Median income: $39,350
Median home price: $234,200
Unemployment rate: 8.2%
Projected bottom: June 2011
3. Jacksonville, Fla.
(Jacksonville metro area)
Price correction necessary: 39%
Median income: $37,690
Median home price: $160,700
Unemployment rate: 9.2%
Projected bottom: June 2011
4. Tampa, Fla.
(Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area)
Price correction necessary: 36%
Median income: $37,530
Median home price: $151,500
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Projected bottom: December 2010
5. Los Angeles, Calif.
(Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metro area)
Price correction necessary: 29%
Median income: $45,390
Median home price: $354,300
Unemployment rate: 10.2%
Projected bottom: March 2010
Click here for the full list of How Low Will Real Estate

[atxcio]

Looks like the original top 5 list at the bottom (the one placed there in error that included Austin) was a fastest-growing population list. The %s were population increases, nothing to do with housing market. Mystery solved!

[cls88]

Didn't know those FL cities' median incomes were that low. Does it have something to do with more retirees who have less "w2" income live there? What are Austin's median income and home price? I hope it is not that disproportional.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by AustinSpartan

We're actually looking for a home in the Austin area right now, and the rose colored glasses that these realtors would love you to wear is just off base. Housing prices in Austin cannot continue to be as strong due to the downturn in other parts of the country.

I think prices will have some slippage in Austin this year (3% to 5% is my personal prediction, though not in the sub-$200k range which is still strong), but as a buyer out looking, have you written any offers or tried to score a smokin' hot deal yet? Something 10% or more below market to allow for some built in price slippage?

It's actually not as easy as one might think, especially for owner-occupants who tend to narrow their options a lot more than investors, to score "great" deals in Austin right now. We consistently have to write 3 to 6 offers for our investors before we find a truly motivated seller.

So, buyers waiting around thinking a better deal will be had later this year may find instead that prices stay about the same, interest rates go up, and after December, 1st time buyers don't get the free $8,000 tax credit anymore.

I just closed a buyer last week who got 4.62% interest and will also get $8,000 back in tax credit, all on top of a really great price that was $10K below appraisal. Why should that buyer have not bought? Job insecurity would be the only reason I can think of. And they are very secure in job and savings, so it wasn't an issue.

steve

Steve

[AustinGuy]

Yes! Austin wins another top 10 list!

Forbes just ranked Austin the best city for job-seekers to ride out the recession:

Austin tops Forbes list of best cities for jobs; Pervasive Software' s Q1 revenue rises 21 percent