Austin area home prices (Round Rock, Cedar Park: loft, houses, neighborhood)

[kingugly]

I urge any potential buyer out there to do your own research. I am not a real estate agent nor do I have any financial incentive in what you ultimately decide to do with regards to buying a home.

Here are some facts from Moderator cut: realtor link
"Between January 1st and August 23rd of 2009 there were 5,213 single-family homes sold within the Austin city limits with a median sold price of $117.20 per square foot ($235,000), which is a 2.5% reduction in the median sold price compared to 2008, and averaging 70 days on the market. During the same time period in 2008 there were 6,091 homes sold (16.8% more than 2009) with a median sold price of $122.44 per square foot ($241,000), and averaging 57 days on the market."

[TexasHorseLady]

OP, if you'd like something seriously professional on this, you might want to check out the TAMU Real Estate Center. Lots of useful information there.

Kingugly, you just posted a site by a real estate broker who gets his information from the same place that the rest of us do and who simply runs the same stats the rest of us do in pretty much the same way (there's a formula). In fact, the language that was used in the blog is very familiar - I get reports like that all the time from ABOR. So what makes him more reliable than the Austin Board of Realtors from which he gets the data?

[kingugly]

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

OP, if you'd like something seriously professional on this, you might want to check out the TAMU Real Estate Center. Lots of useful information there.

Kingugly, you just posted a site by a real estate broker who gets his information from the same place that the rest of us do and who simply runs the same stats the rest of us do in pretty much the same way (there's a formula). In fact, the language that was used in the blog is very familiar - I get reports like that all the time from ABOR. So what makes him more reliable than the Austin Board of Realtors from which he gets the data?

He credits ABOR with his data. I didn't say he was more reliable than the Austin Board of Realtors. I'm just posting statistics and giving credit where it is due. You think my opinion is invalid so I'm posting stats.

[BobosCurse]

I just noticed my typo in the thread topic. Doh.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by calel

As someone currently looking for a house, I watched three small starter houses in one particular neighborhood go from listing to pending in less than a week a piece. Whereas another neighborhood I'm considering with a larger variety of houses seems to be moving much slower. So I gotta agree with THL's assessment on the current market: it really depends on the price and location.

As a former realtor, I can tell you that the less expensive will sell far faster than more expensive in our and every major metro market...the market has, and always has been, jump-started at the bottom...the bottom is moving slightly per the special tax credit and low rates, but the entire rest of the market above starter is coagulated(stuck).......and the luxury market is dead in the water, per the entire food chain of sales being operative before the top chain sale takes place.......
It's all about pricing....if its starter it moves, the more you stray away from starter, the harder it gets, as the chain grows....

[BobosCurse]

Well if they'd lower the luxury homes to $250k, they would sell faster. Simple.

Actually, we've already dropped our price by $65k. Painful. But if we can make it up buying in another down market, it's a wash. It's just psychologically difficult to see that number drop by so much.

When we first considered staying in this area, we watched our favorite home (far western Chicago burbs) go from $400k and close at $260k. No contingencies.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by BobosCurse

Well if they'd lower the luxury homes to $250k, they would sell faster. Simple.

Actually, we've already dropped our price by $65k. Painful. But if we can make it up buying in another down market, it's a wash. It's just psychologically difficult to see that number drop by so much.

When we first considered staying in this area, we watched our favorite home (far western Chicago burbs) go from $400k and close at $260k. No contingencies.

Was it in naperville/aurora area, bobo?

[austin-steve]

It's still a buyer's market.

Uh, try finding something under $200K in south Austin and you'll start whistlin' a different tune. We just put one on the market in 78745 and had an offer over list price in less than 8 hours, and a second offer the next morning. The buyers had, according to the agent, missed out on several houses in succession and were now not messing around.

When I run a search for 3 bedroom houses in 78745, there are at present 25 Active listings and 34 Pending listings.

That, my friends, is a SMOKIN HOT market when you have more Pendings than Actives. It means the supply is falling way short of demand. In a balanced market, we might see 3-5 Actives for every 1 Pending listing. in 78745 for 3/2/2s under $200K, there are 0.73 Actives for each Pending. Wow! It's an inverted demand ratio.

Average prices in Austin are down 3% for houses this year, but a big portion of that can be attributed to price drops in the $400K+ ranges. Stuff at $200K and below, closer in, is a completely different market. Don't believe what you read in the paper. It's a market of sub-markets and the only thing that really matters is your neighborhood and price range. The macro picture doesn't necessarily reflect your local neighborhood (though it could by coincidence if you're an "average" neighborhood)

As far as Austin poised for a 15% bump in prices, that ain't gonna happen either. Maybe in select pockets, but it can't be reliably predicted. In 2-3 years we will have a shortage and should see some good appreciation by then though. But I never count on or expect more than 4% to 5% when crunching my numbers.

Steve

[gpurcell]

So austin-steve, is this a time to cash out a "starter house" (a 2/1 in 78705 with a $150K mortgage) and move up the housing market?

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Uh, try finding something under $200K in south Austin and you'll start whistlin' a different tune. We just put one on the market in 78745 and had an offer over list price in less than 8 hours, and a second offer the next morning. The buyers had, according to the agent, missed out on several houses in succession and were now not messing around.

When I run a search for 3 bedroom houses in 78745, there are at present 25 Active listings and 34 Pending listings.

That, my friends, is a SMOKIN HOT market when you have more Pendings than Actives. It means the supply is falling way short of demand. In a balanced market, we might see 3-5 Actives for every 1 Pending listing. in 78745 for 3/2/2s under $200K, there are 0.73 Actives for each Pending. Wow! It's an inverted demand ratio.

Average prices in Austin are down 3% for houses this year, but a big portion of that can be attributed to price drops in the $400K+ ranges. Stuff at $200K and below, closer in, is a completely different market. Don't believe what you read in the paper. It's a market of sub-markets and the only thing that really matters is your neighborhood and price range. The macro picture doesn't necessarily reflect your local neighborhood (though it could by coincidence if you're an "average" neighborhood)

As far as Austin poised for a 15% bump in prices, that ain't gonna happen either. Maybe in select pockets, but it can't be reliably predicted. In 2-3 years we will have a shortage and should see some good appreciation by then though. But I never count on or expect more than 4% to 5% when crunching my numbers.

Steve

As I said....all of it is driven from/at the bottom, but coagulates as you go higher, and more the higher you get, up to luxury, which is dead in the water........There is not much in Austin under 200K, so I would imagine many buyers would whistle and dance a jig if they found anything decent in that range, which isn't likely unless you are looking for a very small starter, or a place in the boondocks........