Austin growth will absolutely overwhelm roads and highways starting in 2011 - new study (Houston: apartments, homes)

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

I live central, can walk to work and my spouse usually telecommutes, so I guess we are set!

Congestion will force people to take other routes, telecommute, move, etc.

Open roads encourage driving. Texas 130 hasn't done a thing for I-35 congestion, all it is has done is given a boost to development on the far east side. More roads aren't a perfect solution either.

Only planning that incorporates Smart Growth, and can tell the developers to get bit. is the answer.....so far, developers and growth at all costs advocates have gotten Carte Blanche in Austin....that is the reason that building more roads without a grand plan is fruitless...only a great master plan, AND proper infrastructure, with emphasis on mass transit, can make it happen......otherwise, building new roads is the equivalent of pushing the dirt around while washing the floor to another place......you have to get rid of the dirt before you mop, not after.......we need to "wring out" this entire infrastructure......

[artsyguy]

Pseudo-democracy is a good word.

Originally Posted by austinite45

well said. but don't expect it to change ... America is going down IMO precisely because of this so-called "American democracy" (more precisely, adulterated democracy or pseudo-democracy) at work.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by twange

Well, many people in Austin are not happy with the "road it's on" and wish the city would make a quick U-turn. Unfortunately, that would bring about an economic drop that would really hurt the region. All those over-priced houses in the Central core would drop back down to what they are actually worth and the folks counting on cashing in for their retirement would be screwed. Ever been to Detroit? That's what a major city's mass exodus looks like

The problem as I see it, is that people will come here regardless of whether the city improves the roads/transportation. And if the city doesn't adjust - and there are plenty enough smart people here to figure things out - then Austin will be like L.A. or Houston And I don't think too many people want that to happen.

Great posts and ideas, folks....my addition to twange's post here is that Q of L issues have been a huge driver of Austin's growth the last 20 or so years....if the area gets a "jumped the shark" rep as a stinky, overcrowded, miasmic mess, I would imagine the cultural meme of Austin would suffer greatly...there would be a lag for a year or two, but soon enough the luster would be lost......

The saddest thing isn't that people would stop coming in such numbers....the sad thing is that all that growth would ruin the experience/Quality of Life for those already here, and permanently at that.........

[gpurcell]

Originally Posted by BentBow

I'd say that article is way behind times.

We have not been able to keep up, since the mid to late 80's.
Always a day late and a dollar short.
This misdesigned the upper deck of I-35 in the 70's and it has been a cluster ever since and will always be a parking lot at rush hour.

I've been of the opinion for some time that the 130 and 45 toll roads are part of TxDOTs long term plan to deal with the I-35 mess. Now that they are in place it is at least possible to route traffic around any long-term construction downtown that will be undertaken.

The current set up cannot last forever.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by jacksonian

Austin is lucky it is just now facing this dilemma, as many cities across the country are neck deep in it, with some making good choices for the overall health of the core while others have regretted moving everything out to the burbs. As nice as the new burbs seem to people at first, they are way more expensive to maintain due to all the new infrastructure that is required and the amount of area that has to be maintained. Incentives do not last forever, and that is what is becoming reality in many suburban areas - so what do they do then? Move out further of course! It's a never ending cycle and will lead to even worse traffic congestion, unless a dramatic change occurs where people stick to the core or nearby (nearby is less than 10 miles).

NYC has a population density of 27,575 people per square mile. Austin has just 3,012 people per square mile. If more people lived within the city proper, fewer roads would need to be maintained and even fewer new roads would have to be built, thus more money could go towards fewer projects which is always good. Looking at NYC's density, I don't think it's unrealistic for Austin to achieve 10-15,000 people per square mile. Like others have said, efficient public transit is essential for this to work, but with the money saved from not constructing new highways/freeways, there is money available. You will find that it is much cheaper to move a 175 person than it is to move a 3500 lb vehicle. Who would have thought?

Jacksonian........... sprawl, and the ever-present movement radiating outwards and even "less dense" developments, are a result of people acting SINGLY, rather than COLLECTIVELY......in Game Theory, they simply are trying to get as much as they can for themselves(land, quiet, more house for buck, etc.)...the end result is they collectively make things worse, and then go back to acting SINGLY again, the same process going on AD INFINITUM...

What you are seeing NOW in Austin, and far more in the next few years, is the individual maximization of "happiness" by hundreds of thousands, who ended up eating all the grass of the collective commons.....per the old story of each person allowing his sheep to graze the public commons, till there was no grass or commons left........

A mass of collective individual actions adds up collectively to greed, gridlock, and lockdown, regardless of how noble or ignoble each individual act is/was.........

And they keep coming and coming and coming...........

[10scoachrick]

I'm sure many of us are waiting for you 'experts' on the subject of growth to offer some concrete(irony of a sort, I suppose) numbers as to the magic rate at which Austin(or any other city) should grow. Better yet, cite an example of this so-called 'smart growth' in practice in any US city of similar size. It's easy to speak of 'rapid transit', city centers, people movers, 'proper' growth, light rail, live-work-play development, density vs sprawl, yada-yada-yada.

Anybody out there got a plan? Let's hear it!

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

I'm sure many of us are waiting for you 'experts' on the subject of growth to offer some concrete(irony of a sort, I suppose) numbers as to the magic rate at which Austin(or any other city) should grow. Better yet, cite an example of this so-called 'smart growth' in practice in any US city of similar size. It's easy to speak of 'rapid transit', city centers, people movers, 'proper' growth, light rail, live-work-play development, density vs sprawl, yada-yada-yada.

Anybody out there got a plan? Let's hear it!

Same as the Health Care debate, ANY plan/solution is better than the mess we are in now....there is a price to pay for rapid growth...no free lunch there....and growth in a closed environment can end up consuming the host......nature has no grand plan, simply getting rid of species that overshoot habitats.....Austin's "planless" growth falls into this category...
even planning can be fruitless, per California's problems.....

Sometimes too many people too fast is THE problem.....every process has its own natural absorption rate, after which it reaches equilibrium.....I strongly feel that the overwhelming growth of Austin IS the problem, regardless of plans or no plans.....

I remember a really bad experiment we had in 7th grade, where we had way too many mice in a aquarium container......after a certain point, they started biting and eating each other to death.....no planning would have helped there either....

Austin has simply had far too many people overwhelm its infrastructure, and lack of planning exacerbated what would have been a huge prob regardless.......

[joejitsu]

Originally Posted by austinite45

well said. but don't expect it to change ... America is going down IMO precisely because of this so-called "American democracy" (more precisely, adulterated democracy or pseudo-democracy) at work.

Once again complete nonsense from you.

[pbnj07]

I suspect we'll see some new, larger businesses move in, but more on the outskirts of Austin in the burbs. Redirecting congestion west/north/east is inevitable. All along I-130 toll road is just begging for corporate development. South Austin too.

Back in NJ, there are corporate offices and manufacturing plants popping up 60-90 minutes away from NYC just to get away from the high leasing costs.

[twange]

Originally Posted by AK123

In what way would it be like L.A. or Houston... metros that are much, much larger?

As it pertains to my point, size is irrelevant. And relative. L.A. and Houston are cities that developed in every direction, mostly unchecked without any real sense of city core. No feeling of "downtown". In this way, L.A. is like a typical auto-era suburb, just on a giant scale.

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

I'm sure many of us are waiting for you 'experts' on the subject of growth to offer some concrete(irony of a sort, I suppose) numbers as to the magic rate at which Austin(or any other city) should grow. Better yet, cite an example of this so-called 'smart growth' in practice in any US city of similar size. It's easy to speak of 'rapid transit', city centers, people movers, 'proper' growth, light rail, live-work-play development, density vs sprawl, yada-yada-yada.

Anybody out there got a plan? Let's hear it!

I'm not sure what hasn't been made clear here or qualifies as "yada"

Were talking about the possible directions that Austin can go as it grows: either

A.) a well-planned, mobile denser core with options for people who want that type of lifestyle, balanced with a much less dense outer region, retaining much of its original character and rural qualities OR
B.) a less focused downtown primarily car-based surrounded by a serious of "urban villages" connected by congested roads.

No one is suggesting or conjuring "magic" of any sort. That's just you being cynical and sarcastic. Hardly helpful.