Austin residential real estate market struggling....home sales fell 10% and home values fell 4%..... (Houston: foreclosures, to rent)

[CptnRn]

Many people don't have any extra money to invest in stocks. Stocks are also historically far more risky.

You have to live some where and pay to do so. That payment is typically the largest expense for most households. The ability to invest in your home and have that home keep up with inflation and actually increase in value over time has been the only path available for many americans to increase their worth. Home prices going down may seem positive for the moment to a buyer, but once that buyer owns a home seeing the prices continue to go drop is disastrous for the homeowner.

[riaelise]

Originally Posted by woodinvilleguy

I've noticed that in my neighborhood houses are selling pretty quickly in the last 2 months. Not sure why, they are around 500k. Some under, some over. Maybe just an anomaly.

They're probably new homes.

[riaelise]

Not sure if inthecut is a troll. Perhaps he should balance out the gloom with positive posts. However, I do say that some of the things he posts about are true..even if they are negative. I, for one, get tired of people thinking that this region is largely immune from the problems that are occuring in other parts of the country - like unemployment and real estate. My friend was laid off and is yet to find a job. Another guy was warned of his layoff and had to look at Dallas and Houston for work because this place is still a close-knit "small town" when it comes to hiring now. I know first hand (through my job, which handles foreclosures) and my neighborhood, the grasp that this economy has had..there are tons of homes for sale in both Austin and outerlying areas at bargain basement prices because people can't sell them. Not all of us are fortunate enough to buy into a hot neighborhood when it wasn't outrageously priced, or can afford to live in Central Austin. My remedy to that is that I look at my home as the place where I live, not an investment which will reap me financial rewards. I think the only time I would experience that kind of stratespheric increase in income was during the height of the RE boom when I sold my NYC condo.

[Paulmmm]

Originally Posted by inthecut

Well, the bearers of bad news have never been welcomed...they were killed back in the middle ages...I certainly don't expect a brass band welcome.....

Fact is, this website is set up default for positive PR as a relocation venue, with real estate agents "trolling" themselves all over these boards, with
REAL ESTATE AGENT blazoned over their name.......this isn't a place for the reality of what's actually happening in Austin......and surely never will be......

I guess it's interesting what people see the purpose of this board being. I use it to get information and opinions about things related to Austin. I've received great info about rain barrels, where to give blood, driving directions, restaurant and mechanic recommendations, etc. I also offer some of the same when I can. I've never seen it as a blindly postive PR site. In fact, it seems to me that over the last 6 months or so that it's becoming more and more over-the-top negative, which I realize those posters would say is just being realistic. But if all of someone's posts are negative about Austin, it does make me wonder why they're still here. Or if all of their posts are negative and they don't live here, I wonder why they're obsessing over those who do.

My take on what I think the best use of the board is isn't right, of course; it's just right for me. To each, their own.

[woodinvilleguy]

Originally Posted by riaelise

They're probably new homes.

both actually, but none are over a couple of years old.

[FueledByBlueBell]

I can tell you that homes seem to be moving pretty well in my neighborhood where the prices range from $350k-$600k (both new and resale).

[austin-steve]

As usual, it all depends on where you are and what you're selling or trying to buy. Austin is a market of markets. No one sound bite or phrase can aptly characterize it.

I can report real life 3 day old news from the trenches ...

- Just closed Friday on a listing we sold in 8 hours for over list price in South Austin.
- Just had a buyer miss out on a house in South Austin in the same neighborhood because in less than 12 hours after hitting the market, the seller had multiple offers and would not wait for ours to be sent in the next day.

These were both houses in 78745, priced less than $200K. The market down south in Cherry Creek and the older 1960s/1970s neighborhoods is on fire. The Pending to Active ratio is hotter than is was in the 2006 fenzy. Only now, these are local buyers purchasing something to live in, trying to beat the $8,000 tax credit deadline.

Circle C in Southwest Austin is also doing very well. I just completed a comparison between Circle C and Avery Ranch, two subdivisions often in the same consideration pool for relocation buyers. From the stats, you'd think these two neighborhoods were in different cities altogether...

Number of Sales:
Number of sales for the entire Austin MLS is down 17% YTD for 2009, through August. Sales volume in Circle C is down 8.38%, much less than the area average. Avery Ranch number of sales are down 37% for 2009 compared to 2008, more than double the area average. Avery Ranch is suffering disproportionately to the rest of the market during this slowdown, while Circle C remains stable and is holding up in sales volume better than the Austin market as a whole.

Average Sold Values:
Values in the Austin market overall for Jan-Aug 2009 are down 3.25%. Circle C is down 3.68%, slightly worse than the Austin MLS average, but not bad considering the average sales price is is in the $300Ks, which has been a slower selling price range. Avery Ranch, even though it enjoys a lower average sales price of $267K, is down 8.17% so far this year, doing much worse than the market overall or Circle C.

Median Sold Values:
Median values are similar to the average sold prices. Avery is doing far worse than Circle C with a 6.4% decline in median values compared to a 2.27% decline for Circle C. The overall median decline for all of Austin is -0.72% for Jan-Aug 2009.

Sold/List Price Ratio:
Homes in Circle C are selling for 97.02% of final list price. Homes in Avery Ranch are selling for 96.55% of list value. Almost close enough to call a tie, but Circle C still wins. Austin overall is selling for 95.67% of list price, so both Avery Ranch and Circle C are doing better than the overall market in this category.

Average Price per sqft:
At $112.20 average sold price per square foot, Circle C has declined 5.78% on this measure compared to the same time period in 2008. At $102.39 psf, Avery Ranch has declined 6.74% on this measure. The Austin market overall is down 5.28%, so both neighborhoods did slightly worse than the overall market on this measure. This may be because in both neighborhoods the average home size is much larger than Austin as a whole, and the larger homes have taken the biggest price hits in the past two years.

Days on Market:
Circle C homes sell in 73 days on average, 46 days median, slightly better than the citywide average. Avery Ranch homes sell in 80 days average, 55 days median, worse then the citywide average of 76 avg and 48 median. Circle C takes this category as well.

Not Solds:
For 2009 in Austin overall, 43% of the listings departing the MLS are doing so as failed sales efforts (expired or withdrawn). For Circle C, the rate of failure for sales listings is 31%, well below the city average. For Avery Ranch, the “not solds” are 42%, slightly better than the citywide average but much worse than Circle C.

This is just an example to the vast differences one can find in the Austin Metro markets. If we were to look at starter neighborhoods on the far eastern edges of Austin, such as Austins Colony, prices have really fallen a lot out there and sales are difficult, even though these are homes that would be perfect for 1st time buyers. But the long commuting distance and lousy Del Valle Schools kill the demand.

All that matters is the house you need to buy or sell, and what the market is doing in the neighborhood and size/price range. And you won't get any useful information about that from the newspaper.

Steve

Special PS for inthecut ...

I do believe this, and the stats and historic data support it; the stretch of time we are presently in, up until December 1 when the $8K tax credit ends, will be looked back on as one of the best times in history to have purchased a home in America, and particular in Texas, and specifically in Austin TX. And the people who could have but didn't will be remembered as the crowd who missed the boat. $8,000 rebate, interest rates below 5%, and plenty of homes to choose from. It doesn't get any better than this and it won't happen again in my lifetime.

Steve

[HappyTexan]

Unless of course they extend it to next year, up the figure to $15K and not limit it to first time buyers or buyers not having owned a home for the past three years.

That's being bantered about in Congress by Senator Johnny Isakson (R-Georgia).

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

Circle C in Southwest Austin is also doing very well. I just completed a comparison between Circle C and Avery Ranch, two subdivisions often in the same consideration pool for relocation buyers. From the stats, you'd think these two neighborhoods were in different cities altogether...

Number of Sales:
Number of sales for the entire Austin MLS is down 17% YTD for 2009, through August. Sales volume in Circle C is down 8.38%, much less than the area average. Avery Ranch number of sales are down 37% for 2009 compared to 2008, more than double the area average. Avery Ranch is suffering disproportionately to the rest of the market during this slowdown, while Circle C remains stable and is holding up in sales volume better than the Austin market as a whole.

Average Sold Values:
Values in the Austin market overall for Jan-Aug 2009 are down 3.25%. Circle C is down 3.68%, slightly worse than the Austin MLS average, but not bad considering the average sales price is is in the $300Ks, which has been a slower selling price range. Avery Ranch, even though it enjoys a lower average sales price of $267K, is down 8.17% so far this year, doing much worse than the market overall or Circle C.

Median Sold Values:
Median values are similar to the average sold prices. Avery is doing far worse than Circle C with a 6.4% decline in median values compared to a 2.27% decline for Circle C. The overall median decline for all of Austin is -0.72% for Jan-Aug 2009.

Sold/List Price Ratio:
Homes in Circle C are selling for 97.02% of final list price. Homes in Avery Ranch are selling for 96.55% of list value. Almost close enough to call a tie, but Circle C still wins. Austin overall is selling for 95.67% of list price, so both Avery Ranch and Circle C are doing better than the overall market in this category.

Average Price per sqft:
At $112.20 average sold price per square foot, Circle C has declined 5.78% on this measure compared to the same time period in 2008. At $102.39 psf, Avery Ranch has declined 6.74% on this measure. The Austin market overall is down 5.28%, so both neighborhoods did slightly worse than the overall market on this measure. This may be because in both neighborhoods the average home size is much larger than Austin as a whole, and the larger homes have taken the biggest price hits in the past two years.

Days on Market:
Circle C homes sell in 73 days on average, 46 days median, slightly better than the citywide average. Avery Ranch homes sell in 80 days average, 55 days median, worse then the citywide average of 76 avg and 48 median. Circle C takes this category as well.

Not Solds:
For 2009 in Austin overall, 43% of the listings departing the MLS are doing so as failed sales efforts (expired or withdrawn). For Circle C, the rate of failure for sales listings is 31%, well below the city average. For Avery Ranch, the “not solds” are 42%, slightly better than the citywide average but much worse than Circle C.

Steve

Dang, Steve, you're like an older brother...just when I start to get along with you, you go and say stuff like this!^^^^^

As I sit here in my Avery Ranch home, on a street with NO HOUSES FOR SALE(ok, one empty lot that has tree issues--might never be developed), I must remind folks that Avery Ranch is practically a small TOWN...over 3000 homes--headed toward 4000...townhomes for $140K, golf course homes well over $500k. Can't lump us all into the same vat of statistics! House two doors down sold in about a month...newest home on the street(right on AR Blvd...by-pass and drive-thru traffic-yuck!) sold before they could put the sod down. Dang! If only they had read the statistics!

THEN, big brother, you offer the clearest and most direct collection of words I've seen on this forum in a while:


All that matters is the house you need to buy or sell, and what the market is doing in the neighborhood and size/price range. And you won't get any useful information about that from the newspaper.
Steve


And I'll bet along with you on this one...
Special PS for inthecut ...

I do believe this, and the stats and historic data support it; the stretch of time we are presently in, up until December 1 when the $8K tax credit ends, will be looked back on as one of the best times in history to have purchased a home in America, and particular in Texas, and specifically in Austin TX. And the people who could have but didn't will be remembered as the crowd who missed the boat. $8,000 rebate, interest rates below 5%, and plenty of homes to choose from. It doesn't get any better than this and it won't happen again in my lifetime.(Steve)

Also, not a bad time to re-fi(REALLY didn't expect to see 4.3 and change!)

As a wise man once said, "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics!".

Carry on...

[woodinvilleguy]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

Dang, Steve, you're like an older brother...just when I start to get along with you, you go and say stuff like this!^^^^^

As I sit here in my Avery Ranch home, on a street with NO HOUSES FOR SALE(ok, one empty lot that has tree issues--might never be developed), I must remind folks that Avery Ranch is practically a small TOWN...over 3000 homes--headed toward 4000...townhomes for $140K, golf course homes well over $500k. Can't lump us all into the same vat of statistics! House two doors down sold in about a month...newest home on the street(right on AR Blvd...by-pass and drive-thru traffic-yuck!) sold before they could put the sod down. Dang! If only they had read the statistics!

I have a property that I rent out in the highlands neighborhood of Avery and every other house is up for sale. So a lot depends on the price range and neighborhood of Avery.