Austin's transformation - the next 10 to 15 years (Mart: construction, places)

[+ or -]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

Looking out 10-15 years, I don't worry about downtown or close-in Austin. I do worry about aging tract homes in outlying areas losing value and becoming run down, creating pockets of suburban slums that are very hard for small municipalities without strong tax bases to help. And I worry about water shortages and other environmental challenges. I also worry (a lot) about growing numbers of high school drop outs. Without an educated work force, companies won't move or develop here and the economic engine that has pulled people to Austin over the past 15 years could reverse and start pushing them away.

Interesting observation. Not to offend anyone that lives there, but the slum factor has already infiltrated areas of far north Austin, such as Wells Branch.

At the present time, Wells Branch is a neighborhood in transition. Master planned in the late 70's and early 80's, initially it was white-flight from central Austin, but as more and more solidly middle class familes have moved out, they have been replaced with lower income people.

I call the phenomenon ghettoification. The problem with ghettoification is that when lower income people start moving into an area in large numbers, they bring down the property values, and often times, the trend is irreversible. People don't want to move there because of low property values, but the property values are low because people (high income ones) won't move there.

I don't think many neighborhoods in central Austin will be affected by this because property values and demand are too high, but I can see how this can happen to far flung areas.

[artsyguy]

European Hispanics are also brown. They also have Hispanic facial features. I can tell Ricky Martin and Enrique Iglesias are Latino even though they aren't Mexican. Let's be real dude.

Originally Posted by + or -

We're splitting hairs here. When I make references to the Hispanic population of Austin, I'm talking about what is mostly represented here - people of Mexican descent. These are not "white" Hispanics, because they are not from Europe.

[TexasHorseLady]

So, "lower income" equal "slum"? Interesting perspective. Not accurate, but interesting.

[+ or -]

No, lower income does not equal slum. There just tends to be a positive correlation between lower income people moving into areas, and the quality of life in an area going down (the schools, the local establishments, the condition and value of properties, and obviously median incomes).

[atxcio]

I really like your assessment... a couple of small points:

Originally Posted by + or -

We're splitting hairs here. When I make references to the Hispanic population of Austin, I'm talking about what is mostly represented here - people of Mexican descent. These are not "white" Hispanics, because they are not from Europe.

They aren't? Who colonized Mexico? The point Mimimomx3 is making is a valid one, most hispanics here in Austin are caucasian. They are descendants (some more than others) of Europeans, and practice a European religion. Hispanic is an ethnic, not racial, term.

Originally Posted by + or -

At the present time, Wells Branch is a neighborhood in transition. Master planned in the late 70's and early 80's, initially it was white-flight from central Austin, but as more and more solidly middle class familes have moved out, they have been replaced with lower income people.

Actually, if you look closely, you'll notice that Austin never experienced white flight from the central neighborhoods. In some cases, the exact opposite occurred (see far NE Austin and Pflugerville). That may be part of the reason Austin comes across as lacking diversity. Places like Wells Branch were built for affordable housing as the city grew. Not really for people moving out of the central neighborhoods. The initial niceness of these areas, like pretty much all new development, has a shelf life... people start moving up, and first time homeowners get lured farther out for that new home.

Now, where do I see Austin in 10-15 years? Well, I think we are still in the early stages of downtown becoming truly vibrant and urban. I don't think we'll see too many new residential towers, but we're extremely lucky that we have the ones we do. As they fill out, downtown retail, restaurants, and general amenities will grow. When the new Austin City Limits venue at the base of the W is open, it will be an attractive 2500 seat venue for concerts downtown. Hopefully all this will lure more companies there, like HomeAway: HomeAway Celebrates Opening Of New 'Green' World Headquarters. As all this happens over the next 10 years, it will help solidify Austin as having the most vibrant, walkable and liveable downtown in Texas. Perhaps even regionally -- not very many adjacent states have something like that. Maybe LA with New Orleans.

I see Austin getting more diverse over the next decade... but it will be slow. Believe it or not, Austin is much more diverse than it was last decade. So I think that trend will continue with the incoming population.

I think the "funkiness" or "weirdness" of Austin will move around, but not go away. I suspect that the economy slowing will allow more affordable options around the central area, possibly re-injecting it with some real artists and musicians who would otherwise be priced out. We need the occasional "bust" for that.

Bottom line, the old Austin was great (pick whatever decade you want)... but what worked 20 years ago doesn't work now -- having just 2 entertainment strips (the Drag and 6th street) would be completely diluted with today's population. That's why the conversion of all of downtown, and places like SoCo and now East Austin into vibrant Austin-like areas was absolutely vital to maintaining some of the city's character as it grows. Hopefully that trend will continue.

[austinite45]

Originally Posted by + or -

We're splitting hairs here. When I make references to the Hispanic population of Austin, I'm talking about what is mostly represented here - people of Mexican descent. These are not "white" Hispanics, because they are not from Europe.

You are correct. So is Artsyguy. Hispanics in Austin are mostly of Mexican descent - "brown"

I don't know why some posters here have difficulty recognizing or acknowledging such simple, obvious truths. Perhaps they are trying hard to advertise themselves as "colorblind" by calling these "brown" Hispanics "white"

[austinite45]

Originally Posted by artsyguy

The last time I checked most Hispanics were brown. The majority of Hispanics will agree with me.

Correct.

In fact, you are right even if the majority don't agree with you.

[austinite45]

Originally Posted by atxcio

They aren't? Who colonized Mexico?

are you suggesting that the day Spain colonized Mexico, all the native Mexicans experienced a sudden change of skin color? (I'd like to note that the population of native Mexicans far outnumbered the colonizers at the time. Same for South America.)

The point Mimimomx3 is making is a valid one, most hispanics here in Austin are caucasian.

False. (1) most Hispanics in Austin are brown (non-Caucasian). (2) Caucasians are listed as white no matter what language they speak (i.e. Spaniard, French, Swede ... are all "white" if they are Caucasian).

[mimimomx3]

Race and ethnicity in the United States Census - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I'm sorry for those who aren't educated enough to understand the difference between race and ethnicity...but back to the topic at hand.

I think that the majority of future growth will occur in the burbs- we'll see the change in places like Round Rock and Pflugerville. San Antonio and Austin will continue to grow towards each other, incorporating Kyle, New Braunfels and Buda. I don't think that central Austin will change much.

[austinite45]

Originally Posted by mimimomx3

"Hispanics" come in all colors. Most Hispanics would agree with this.

shooting blanks there.

the majority of Hispanics are brown, here in Austin, there in Mexico and South America.

are you disputing that?