Austin's transformation - the next 10 to 15 years (Houston, Dallas: condos, house)

[+ or -]

I was walking in downtown Austin last weekend and really amazed at how dense, urban, and walkable it is. It has the feel of a semi-vibrant downtown at night and the Austonian, among other high-rises, have really transformed the skyline.

Clearly, Austin's central business district, along with Austin itself, has grown vastly over the last several years, and I don't see the momentum stopping anytime soon. Here are some things I think will occur in Austin over the next ten to fifteen years:

1. Technology growth:

Austin is already home to hundreds of technology firms, many of which were home grown start-ups, several of which have become medium-sized entities very important in their sectors. I see this trend continuing, with a greater influx of technology firms moving here, particularly from California.

2. More Fortune 500 companies:

Despite having a plethora of small-to-medium sized tech firms in its city limits, Austin only has two F500-ranking companies - Whole Foods and Dell. In the next ten to fifteen years, I see this number tripling, again, with companies choosing to relocate here because of its educated work force and status as a burgeoning tech hub.

There has been a mass exodus of corporate relos to the Dallas/Ft. Worth area in the last ten years, and I see Austin being the next big thing in Texas in the future.

3. High-rises downtown:

I see greater building, gentrification, and density in downtown Austin. Most of these newly built structures will be mid-rise and house businesses, residences, and serve as mixed use developments.

4. East side gentrification:

The east side, historically, the ghetto, is undergoing a tremendous amount of gentrification, and I don't see this slowing. In ten to fifteen years time, east Austin will be a mix of bohemian, upscale, and urban.

5. Diversity:

Lastly, I hope with all of the new people coming to Austin, that a larger percentage make up non-white or Hispanic ethnicities so the city is more diverse. A city cannot be truly cosmopolitan unless it fosters a variety of ethnic backgrounds.

Where do you see Austin in the next ten to fifteen years?

[mimimomx3]

Originally Posted by + or -

5. Diversity:

Lastly, I hope with all of the new people coming to Austin, that a larger percentage make up non-white or Hispanic ethnicities so the city is more diverse. A city cannot be truly cosmopolitan unless it fosters a variety of ethnic backgrounds.

Where do you see Austin in the next ten to fifteen years?

I think that most of this new growth will happen ouside of Austin- RR, PF, etc.

Also, many Hispanics ARE white. Some are black, some Asian, some Native American. Just FYI- a pet peeve of mine.

[LibertysFate]

Originally Posted by mimimomx3

Also, many Hispanics ARE white. Some are black, some Asian, some Native American. Just FYI- a pet peeve of mine.

Okay, you lost me at "some are black, some Asian..."
Are you talking about multiracial?

I don't think the poster was talking about actual skin color.

Anyway, I hope Austin become ethnically more diverse as well. I'm happy there's finally a Chinatown but still, it's nothing like Houston.

[TexasHorseLady]

Well, if it follows your prescription, I see there being no "Austin" per se in the next 10 to 15 years, just a replication of huge cities where some would prefer to live rather than the lovely, non-cosmopolitan (Austin never claimed or wanted to be "cosmopolitan"), down to earth small city that it's been and that's been what drew people here. That will be destroyed in the quest by newcomers and those who never knew the beauties of Austin as Austin, not mini-Dallas/San Francisco/Houston/NYC to make it something it was never meant to be (it was actually where people went to escape those cities, especially Dallas and Houston). And the world will be a poorer place for it, just as you can drive from one end of I35 to the other and see the exact same chain restaurants and businesses and malls and never know where you are without looking at a map, because every place is just the same as every other.

Understand, I don't mind growth, and I don't mind change. I just mind growth and change that strives to make every place the same as every other place, and that's what I'm seeing being pursued.

[austin-steve]

All I know is that in 20 to 30 years, people will be griping and saying how great Austin was back in the 2000s before "everything changed".

Just as those of us who have been here 25+ years complain that things were better back in the 1980s or 1970s, when we still had only 1 freeway (IH35) and 183 and Ben White were traffic signal boulevards, and you could drive from any point A to any point B in 10-20 minutes.

So, we're living in the best of times right now, today, as will be recounted by old times 20-30 years from now, so let's make sure we enjoy and appreciate all that Austin had to offer.

Steve

[artsyguy]

The last time I checked most Hispanics were brown. The majority of Hispanics will agree with me.

Originally Posted by mimimomx3

I think that most of this new growth will happen ouside of Austin- RR, PF, etc.

Also, many Hispanics ARE white. Some are black, some Asian, some Native American. Just FYI- a pet peeve of mine.

[mimimomx3]

Originally Posted by artsyguy

The last time I checked most Hispanics were brown. The majority of Hispanics will agree with me.

You are completely and utterly incorrect. Alberto Fujimori, ex president of Peru...is not 'brown'. He happens to be of Japanese descent. Celia Cruz, the famous singer from Cuba, is African American. David Ortiz, famous Dominican baseball player, is African American. Cristina Aguilera is a 'white' hispanic...she's not 'brown'.

"Hispanic" is an ethinic term, not a racial term.

"Hispanics" come in all colors. Most Hispanics would agree with this.

[artsyguy]

I said the majority of Hispanics are brown. Ughhhhh.

[+ or -]

We're splitting hairs here. When I make references to the Hispanic population of Austin, I'm talking about what is mostly represented here - people of Mexican descent. These are not "white" Hispanics, because they are not from Europe.

[centralaustinite]

+or-, back to your original post, it is a fairly starry-eyed view of Austin's future.

Tech growth in Austin was fueled by semiconductor fabs and equipment manufacturers and that segment is declining in Austin. Tech will remain important but with many smaller companies employing 1-500 people, not the huge employers of the past. Dallas and Houston will see more Fortune 500 headquarters, Austin might gain one or two (hopefully homegrown) but I don't see any big gains. Our air service is too limited for that and Houston offers everything Austin does and more (ports, air hubs, warehouse space, larger workforce, more diversity, etc).

I do not see many more high rise condos for the next decade. We already have several projects that have been slowed/delayed due to financing. We will absorb the new units just fine (no empty condo towers like Miami) and perhaps one or two of the planned but delayed projects will come on board, but not much more.

The east is changing already, I think it will slow down for a while which is better for the long-term.

Looking out 10-15 years, I don't worry about downtown or close-in Austin. I do worry about aging tract homes in outlying areas losing value and becoming run down, creating pockets of suburban slums that are very hard for small municipalities without strong tax bases to help. And I worry about water shortages and other environmental challenges. I also worry (a lot) about growing numbers of high school drop outs. Without an educated work force, companies won't move or develop here and the economic engine that has pulled people to Austin over the past 15 years could reverse and start pushing them away.

But you paint a nice picture -- you should work in PR!