What is the "carrying capacity" of Austin? (Houston: crime rates, how much)

[inthecut]

If you could imagine such a thing...

My definition would be the point where population starts eating away at Quality of Life issues....some would say that time has already passed, some say just as it is now, while some might feel the Austin metro could comfortably fit 2-3 million, maybe more....

So, at what point would we be simply be squeezing too many people into too small a space? .....

At what point do we lose the Q of L that separates us from Houston and Dallas, per livable size?

At what point does traffic become so much of a hassle that relos finally stop coming in droves, self-fulfilling the "traffic is bad" meme with their sheer numbers?

At what point did Phoenix, LA, Houston, and some of the Florida cities (Orlando in particular) "Jump the Shark", with sheer retail and pop growth pressing down hard on whatever ambience still embered on from the past?

Again, how much is "too much"?

BTW, I expect the replies to follow the typical responces from questions like this over the years, in which most people say they like it best just like it was when they moved in, which would mean that the longer you have been in Austin, the smaller you ideally would want it.....but I could be wrong....perhaps Austin would be quite bearable if we doubled the metro population with mostly the same living space(growing up and out, like other, bigger cities)....

What do YOU think?

[inthecut]

I couldn't resist my own opinion on growth itself.....

City growth itself is not an unalloyed good.....sometimes it can be quite toxic, literally, re China's east coast, from Shanghai to Beijing and all points in-between.....not to mention the massive slummery that is Mumbai and Calcutta......Sub Saharan Africa has a wonderful growth rate, and has for some time now. Try walking one mile in Lagos, Nigeria, and see how long your body remains in working order/one piece......Take a stroll through the Shantys of Rio and Sao Paulo, and see how long you last before some local holds a knive to your head, along with many other places.....

So no, growth is not an unalloyed good, and in most cases has quite a bit of baggage to carry.....
Just the logistics are overwhelming.....each batch of 10K new vehicles or more added each year to Austin's metro belches that much more plumes of toxic waste(CO and many other carcinogins), and the human waste must be gotten rid of as well(dirty water, body waste, garbage).....Each year, more and more cookie-cutter self-same planned obsolescence housing gets built and rips open more ground, more pavement laid, more sewer, electrical, cable, blah, blah blah infrastructure......
More retail strips and big-boxes subjugate the overall ethos of Austin's metro more and more into generica, pulling farther away from the livable, eclectic ville it once was....

And crime increases eightfold.....


Just my personal opinion.......

[nomore07]

Originally Posted by inthecut

More retail strips and big-boxes subjugate the overall ethos of Austin's metro more and more into generica, pulling farther away from the livable, eclectic ville it once was....

And crime increases eightfold..... Just my personal opinion.......

Planned subdivisions and strip malls are fast, cheap, and profitable to plop down. Good to keep costs down, bad for originality. There are a few new stores that are regional or local chains though, so not all is lost to megalo-marts.

A couple of new health stores caught my eye. They are both regional chains (not national) but still somewhat unique. I still frequent local stores... what's not available at one place can be found at another.

What I'm curious about is the source of jobs for all the newcomers? Is everyone working in retail now?

[oldtoiletsmkgdflrpots]

Originally Posted by inthecut

I couldn't resist my own opinion on growth itself.....
...
and the human waste must be gotten rid of as well(dirty water, body waste, garbage).....Each year, more and more cookie-cutter self-same planned obsolescence housing gets built and rips open more ground, more pavement laid, more sewer, electrical, cable, blah, blah blah infrastructure......
More retail strips and big-boxes subjugate the overall ethos of Austin's metro more and more into generica, pulling farther away from the livable, eclectic ville it once was....
And crime increases eightfold.....
Just my personal opinion.......

My opinion is we're humans, we live, we have waste. Please expound on the "livable, eclectic ville". Are you talking about Austin? Please talk about "how it was". On a personal note I grow weary of yet another "it was better then" thread.

When they didn't have sewers they had waste seeping up from the ground and flowing into the waterways, driveways, and walkways. I suppose those who built up on the hills were ok because, like always,"caca" rolls downhill where some poor ******* has to deal with it.

The other thing is which part of the population has control over what kind of housing they live in? Seriously. Again, not to be redundant, but money talks. I'm fairly certain if we ALL had a choice of how to live, where to live, and what kind of structure provided us shelter, we would choose wisely. But alas, I suppose the majority of us are lazy bums or we would be choosing.

Lastly, when looking for a home I would have loved to purchase one of those "obsolescent" homes but they were waaay overpriced.

I'm sure most of us are aware of the problems. Let's talk about jobs that provide a living wage, affordable housing, affordable health care. Let's get the food, clothing, shelter thing down first. But when that happens it turns to the same "caca" that runs downhill where once again that same poor ******* is having to deal with it.

[hoffdano]

I'll agree that growth by itself is not necessarily good. It is a sign of vitality but of course it creates challenges.

But one thing the OP has completely wrong is the crime issue. Austin has more than doubled in size in the last twenty years. Crime by and large has remained low, especially violent crime. Unless a socioeconomic disaster occurs - it is highly improbable that crime in Austin will ever deteriorate to what happens in New Orleans or Detroit.

[Paulmmm]

Originally Posted by inthecut

I couldn't resist my own opinion on growth itself.....

City growth itself is not an unalloyed good.....sometimes it can be quite toxic, literally, re China's east coast, from Shanghai to Beijing and all points in-between.....not to mention the massive slummery that is Mumbai and Calcutta......Sub Saharan Africa has a wonderful growth rate, and has for some time now. Try walking one mile in Lagos, Nigeria, and see how long your body remains in working order/one piece......Take a stroll through the Shantys of Rio and Sao Paulo, and see how long you last before some local holds a knive to your head, along with many other places.....

So no, growth is not an unalloyed good, and in most cases has quite a bit of baggage to carry.....
Just the logistics are overwhelming.....each batch of 10K new vehicles or more added each year to Austin's metro belches that much more plumes of toxic waste(CO and many other carcinogins), and the human waste must be gotten rid of as well(dirty water, body waste, garbage).....Each year, more and more cookie-cutter self-same planned obsolescence housing gets built and rips open more ground, more pavement laid, more sewer, electrical, cable, blah, blah blah infrastructure......
More retail strips and big-boxes subjugate the overall ethos of Austin's metro more and more into generica, pulling farther away from the livable, eclectic ville it once was....

And crime increases eightfold.....


Just my personal opinion.......

Wow, does crime in Austin really increase eightfold every year?! I'd never heard that before. Is that in all categories (violent, personal property, etc.), or just one specific category? Or is it eightfold over many, many years? And just curious - how does crime increasing eightfold in Austin compare to similar-sized cities?

[Paulmmm]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

I'll agree that growth by itself is not necessarily good. It is a sign of vitality but of course it creates challenges.

But one thing the OP has completely wrong is the crime issue. Austin has more than doubled in size in the last twenty years. Crime by and large has remained low, especially violent crime. Unless a socioeconomic disaster occurs - it is highly improbable that crime in Austin will ever deteriorate to what happens in New Orleans or Detroit.

Okay, never mind about my "has crime in Austin really increased eightfold?" question above then. I assumed that it was true based on the earlier posting, but now I guess not.

[hoffdano]

Originally Posted by Paulmmm

Okay, never mind about my "has crime in Austin really increased eightfold?" question above then. I assumed that it was true based on the earlier posting, but now I guess not.

Crime rates in Austin have changed little over the years.

[inthecut]

Originally Posted by nomore07

Planned subdivisions and strip malls are fast, cheap, and profitable to plop down. Good to keep costs down, bad for originality. There are a few new stores that are regional or local chains though, so not all is lost to megalo-marts.

A couple of new health stores caught my eye. They are both regional chains (not national) but still somewhat unique. I still frequent local stores... what's not available at one place can be found at another.

What I'm curious about is the source of jobs for all the newcomers? Is everyone working in retail now?

Good points....It took me awhile to realize that fast and large metro growth can only take place with a large generic component....sort of like a turn-key franchise, generic growth has everything you need to build out fast....not unlike the methodology of Long Island's original Levittown....
keep things simple and keep things similar....don't spend a lot of time planning...keep things moving....don't accessorize, that can be done later......keep a tight relationship with the local zoning board and political power structure, so paperwork and cumbersome regs can be minimized....
keep as few basic options as possible(one size fits all)....

There is absolutely no way to establish an eclectic neighborhood quickly....that can only happen slowly, letting things take course after many years....to build out fast and large today means that the retail and residential development must be nondescript and blueprints simple, similar, and easy to build out....

Simply, that's the reason the eclectic areas in Austin are without fail all older, long-established communities....and, because of Austin's huge growth spurt last 15 years or so, the metro is approx 80-85% generica and 15-20% eclectic at best......

Question....do people really CARE if the area they live in is generica ?
What are they comparing it to, BTW? Probably the same generica they moved away from in California, Arizona, Florida, and all parts in-between.
In that case, if they have no experiential awareness of living in a truly unique environment, why would they NOT be satisfied in generica, even one falsely sold as unique and metro-wide eclectic such as Austin?

Put another way, can any metro pull an "Austin", and put their PR machine in overdrive, selling a mostly generica metro as eclectic/weird? Probably so.

Per the saying "In the land of the blind, one-eyed men are kings", in a mostly generica america, where most people live in suburban areas, it's like shooting fish in a barrel to convince a large number of people that a mostly nondescipt metro is "Cool - Weird - Eclectic - Utopia"
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In response to the query about everyone seemingly only having retail jobs as options, this is certainly the case in newer areas. Frankly, its amazing that so many people can be found willing to work for substandard wages in so many retail establishments.......That's a entirely seperate issue, and that situation exists in all large US metros....

[love roses]

Speaking of bad things that come with growth....along with noise complaints about Shady Grove and then The Nutty Brown Cafe, the "no noise" gang strikes again, this time trying to put a hiatus on the noise from boaters on Lake Austin (in the newspaper today). I'm going to venture a guess that with all the "no noise" in my backyard people that pretty soon the so called eclectic, unique areas of Austin will be just as generic and boring as some say Suburbia is. I mean, really, how is ANYONE going to be able to take a boat out on Lake Austin without making any noise?