Another high school comparison: Akins vs. Bowie (Austin, West: new house, buyers)

[jobert]

Originally Posted by austin-steve

The real question is whether or not Akins will ever become a school sought and requested by buyers. At present, it is not. We only hear buyers for whom schools matter ask about Bowie in the SW areas.

Let's suppose that Akins does start posting impressive numbers, the next shoe to drop would have to be the consumer (home purchasers) acknowledging that by requesting to see homes that feed into Akins. I haven't had any instances of that happening, ever. Maybe it will change in the future.

But more important than the high school stats are the stats of the elementary and middle schools that feed into Akins. High school quality is usually a forward-looking question for parents of elementary and middle school kids, and so the high school is a secondary concern, but they are thinking ahead. We don't get many people with a 10th and 11th grader looking for a new house. At that point in life, people tend to stay put and not move. But parents of elementary/middle schoolers always ask about high school as well.

I find it difficult to believe that Akins can outscore the schools that feed into it. What are the stats of the middle schools feeding into Akins (Bedichek, Bailey, Paredes)? How do those stats compare to the middle schools feeding into Bowie (Covington, Baily, Gorzycki)? Bailey splits to Akins/Bowie. The others feed exclusively to their respective high schools.


Steve

You're assuming that the elementary school aged children that will be attending Akins are only the children that currently live here. The people currently moving and continuing to move the area tend to be more educated, more anglo (if that matters), and more affluent. Considering the 4x projected growth rate of the area, you can argue that half the elementary school kids that will attend Akins in 10 years haven't even moved here yet. I am willing to bet that the average first grader in this area will graduate high school with less than 10% of his/her original first grade class. This happened with my wife when she was young. She grew up in Allen, Tx and enrolled in elementary school when the town only had about 20K residents, and had ballooned to 60K when she graduated high school. During the graduation ceremony, the speaker asked the kids who had gone to Allen ISD since first grade to stand up, and only about 10% of the graduating senior class stood. This area (far south) is poised for radical growth, and may look completely different in 10 or even 5 years. As for the status of the elementary schools that track to Paredes/Akins, they tend to be 'recognized' on average as of 2009 per TAS. There will always be a demand for new housing, good schools, and amenities that this area provides, as it's the only place south of the river that meets all those criteria.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by jread

The Manchaca area is kind of neat: it's a small community that was once way outside Austin proper but will soon be annexed (if most of it hasn't already). It still retains its own identity in a way, and there are many local businesses in the area (some existing for a very long time, and some which are brand new).

Austin-Steve, what are your feelings about that area of Manchacha rd?
(zip code 78748 - area attends Paredes Middle School and Akins High School)

Would you buy property there?

[JERiv]

Not to be rude, but I have no idea how you can compare Akins and Bowie.

Greatschools.org
Akins - Rating of 4/10
Bowie - Rating of 9/10

Schoolmatters.com
Akins - Schoolwide Reading Proficiency: 79.4%; Schoolwide Math Proficiency: 54.4%
Bowie - Schoolwide Reading Proficiency: 93.3%; Schoolwide Math Proficiency: 85.1%

That's what people like me see when they look for houses. It's not even in the realm of being equal. Which is why the realtors like austin-steve aren't even getting inquiries about houses that feed to Akins.

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by jobert

Austin-Steve, what are your feelings about that area of Manchacha rd?
(zip code 78748 - area attends Paredes Middle School and Akins High School)

Would you buy property there?

I'm bullish long term on 78748.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by JERiv

Schoolmatters.com
Akins - Schoolwide Reading Proficiency: 79.4%; Schoolwide Math Proficiency: 54.4%
Bowie - Schoolwide Reading Proficiency: 93.3%; Schoolwide Math Proficiency: 85.1%

That's what people like me see when they look for houses.

True stats, yet Bowie dropped from 'Recognized' to 'Acceptable' (same as Akins) the following year - 2009. No one is arguing that Bowie's stats as of 2008 are better than Akins. The point I am making is where these schools have been heading since 2000. Akins was on the opposite end of the spectrum from Bowie in 2000, while Bowie was rated 'exemplary', and the closest thing to a private school as you could find in AISD. Unfortunately, we don't live in the year 2000 anymore, and elementary aged kids today won't attend these high schools until 2020. Extrapolate the academic paths of these two high schools over the last ten years and you will get a good idea of what kind of school your kid will be attending 10 years from now, they'll be practically identical. I'm not saying that Bowie is going downhill at a fast clip, I'm saying that Bowie is leveling off, and eventually these two will meet. When? who knows. There are just too many people moving to Austin, and they all can't fit in 78749. They are spilling over. 78749 is a great area and always will be, I just see far South Austin (78748) being the next logical progression. I do think 78739 will get more expensive, but the lack of infrastructure and development limitations from the aquifer will dampen it's growth.

[jread]

Originally Posted by jobert

It really is. I like that 1626 is still a rural road that takes you to 969 and the hill country - I take them to the vineyards whenever I go, and it's a smooth trip. The businesses in Manchacha are majority local it appears, such as the red double-decker british bus at Frate Barker - I think it's a business, like a food vendor maybe? I also want to try that place that looks like a saloon: Giddy Ups- it looks like a fresh experience, and reminds me of the Broken Spoke. There is also 'Going Bananas' for the kids, and a small coffee shop along with assorted other businesses popping up which is good timing as they are also widening Manchacha Rd currently. There is also a Templar development going in further north at Ravencroft as well that looks as if it will make O.H. more pedestrian friendly if useful and/or more local businesses take up leases. The only drawback I see is that the area could lose charm if they make Manchacha a major thouroughfare for Hays-to-Austin traffic as a result of the widening.

The place with the double-decker bus (incredible frozen custard): Likkity's Frozen Custard - Home

Giddy Ups (good place to have a beer, listen to some music and play some shuffle board): Giddy Ups - Our Home

The "coffee shop" (great coffee, and even better sandwiches/pastries): Austin Deli, Coffee House | Chuck's Deli and Coffee House

Also, don't forget about Cafe 1626, which has great food (pizza buffet anyone) and fast delivery: Cafe 1626

Originally Posted by jobert

Austin-Steve, what are your feelings about that area of Manchacha rd?
(zip code 78748 - area attends Paredes Middle School and Akins High School)

Would you buy property there?

Just wanted to say that it depends on which side of Manchaca you're on. For instance, the kids in Olympic Heights attend Baranoff Elementary and Bailey Middle School (with the Bowie kids), but we are still with Akins at the high school level unfortunately.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by jread

Just wanted to say that it depends on which side of Manchaca you're on. For instance, the kids in Olympic Heights attend Baranoff Elementary and Bailey Middle School (with the Bowie kids), but we are still with Akins at the high school level unfortunately.

Yet the houses accross Frate Barker in Rancho Alto attend Menchacha/Paredes/Akins, and sell for more than houses in Olympic Heights, even though the O.H. children would go to school with "Bowie" kids from kindergarten to 8th grade. I find that interesting.

Jread, do you have high school aged children?

[jread]

Originally Posted by jobert

Jread, do you have high school aged children?

Nope, not for a long time (my daughter is only 2-months-old), but I will eventually so I'm trying to stay up to date on the school situation around here.

[jobert]

Originally Posted by jread

Nope, not for a long time (my daughter is only 2-months-old), but I will eventually so I'm trying to stay up to date on the school situation around here.

So high school attendance for your child is at least 14 years away.

How is your current zoning situation unfortunate?

[achtungpv]

Originally Posted by jobert

Yet the houses accross Frate Barker in Rancho Alto attend Menchacha/Paredes/Akins, and sell for more than houses in Olympic Heights, even though the O.H. children would go to school with "Bowie" kids from kindergarten to 8th grade. I find that interesting.

I've heard, from someone more likely than not to be in the know, that the next gerrymandering session, without taking a new HS into account AISD will put everything south of Frate Barker in Akins. If the new HS happens before then, then who knows.