Australian mining minister declares boom 'over' (2013, house prices, buy)

[theunbrainwashed]

Originally Posted by the troubadour

Taxes had nothing to do with it. An international slowdown is creating the need for less resources. Also cheaper sources coming on top in Mongolia for example.....

"Is further going" does not mean the taxes are solely to blame for the slump. The carbon tax came long after signs of Australia's boom coming to an end. IMO, the boom ended long before the carbon tax was enacted, it just took this long to admit it. What is meant by "is further going" is that the carbon tax is not going to help a battered industry. If Australia doesn't diversify away from commodities, especially mining resources, it's going to become another New Zealand economy. Australia's long distance to Asia, compared to Russia and Mongolia, is already a huge disadvantage.

[BCC_1]

Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed

"Is further going" does not mean the taxes are solely to blame for the slump. The carbon tax came long after signs of Australia's boom coming to an end. IMO, the boom ended long before the carbon tax was enacted, it just took this long to admit it. What is meant by "is further going" is that the carbon tax is not going to help a battered industry. If Australia doesn't diversify away from commodities, especially mining resources, it's going to become another New Zealand economy. Australia's long distance to Asia, compared to Russia and Mongolia, is already a huge disadvantage.

The boom has ended, the capex has. There were some pretty dubious projects being started, predicated on the price of iron ore remaining high. Roy Hill, for example, needs an average price over $100/tonne, to put that in perspective, the price of iron ore between 1980 and 2003 was $15/tonne. Mining is a labour intensive industry during the ramp-up phase but then requires significantly less labour once the mine is built. This reduction in capex should hopefully flow through to lower wage inflation, which should hopefully flow through to lower cost of living increases.

Well overdue, IMO.

[Ttad]

Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed

Good luck! I don't see a bright future for Australia, especially since their economy is dependent on China, who is dependent on the US and EU. The housing situation seems especially perilous in Australia, with so many jobs dependent on the housing sector, if we were to go by the British expat forums (seems like a lot of British tradies upped sticks to Australia). It sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, but the commodities boom fueled Australia, and fueled construction which provided a lot of jobs and the commdities are coming to an end, and houses are already seriously overpriced. You can't tell me that a house in Sydney is worth much more than a house in Los Angeles. The two cities aren't even in the same league. Something is seriously wrong Down Under.

Housing/construction is also because of high levels of immigration and relaxed restrictions on foreign investment.

[danielsa1775]

Originally Posted by Ttad

Housing/construction is also because of high levels of immigration and relaxed restrictions on foreign investment.

Its not even high by historic levels, here is a graph going back to 1983 showing the number of new dwellling approvals in Australia, in 2012 it is slghly below the trend line.



This is what a construction boom looks like, hear is ireland

[danielsa1775]

Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed

Good luck! I don't see a bright future for Australia, especially since their economy is dependent on China, who is dependent on the US and EU. The housing situation seems especially perilous in Australia, with so many jobs dependent on the housing sector, if we were to go by the British expat forums (seems like a lot of British tradies upped sticks to Australia). It sounds like a lot of doom and gloom, but the commodities boom fueled Australia, and fueled construction which provided a lot of jobs and the commdities are coming to an end, and houses are already seriously overpriced. You can't tell me that a house in Sydney is worth much more than a house in Los Angeles. The two cities aren't even in the same league. Something is seriously wrong Down Under.


HOWEVER, if you have a job lined up already in a field not tied to mining or construction, then maybe it won't be much of a problem. But, I'm not the local here, so maybe a local can chime in

That’s right, and everything is just rosy in the USA isn't it. You have cheap houses after all, what more could the people need?

Seriously you need to realise the reason why a house in Sydney is worth as much as one in LA, is as much the USA's fault as it is ours.

[theunbrainwashed]

Originally Posted by danielsa1775

That’s right, and everything is just rosy in the USA isn't it. You have cheap houses after all, what more could the people need?

Seriously you need to realise the reason why a house in Sydney is worth as much as one in LA, is as much the USA's fault as it is ours.

I don't know why you're being sarcastic with me, I'm not putting down Australia arbitrarily. I don't put down a country because it's not the US, I criticize a country with an informed opinion. I think you're mistaking my posts as one that puts down Australia because it's not the US. Well, I'm not that kind of American. I give equal opportunity to any country that I criticize, even my own, so chill. I'm not jumping up and down with joy that Australia is going to crash and burn, that's gonna be worse off for the world.

[Joe90]

The world economy is going through a readjustment, and will continue to do so for a while. Australia's economy isn't one dimensional as some would imply. Wealth will be eroded for some and grow for others, but won't evaporate completely. The boom times will come again.

[Battleneter]

Personally I still don't know what "Mining Boom" means, the media have failed to define it. I don't believe reaching a predictable plateau is a large threat to the Australian economy.

What is a threat, Australia is loosing he currency war and needs to strategically print $$ to counter the US and the likes of the UK. Other exporters are reeling.

The mainstream Australian media have been celebrating the high $AUD like the prise is at the top not understanding the race is about devaluation

The housing market here will probably see a Japan style crash over the next 10 years, not really a soft landing but not a Ireland style crash either.

[BCC_1]

Originally Posted by Battleneter

What is a threat, Australia is loosing he currency war and needs to strategically print $$ to counter the US and the likes of the UK. Other exporters are reeling.

It's a bit of myth that the US is printing money. Our dollar is strong because we have a historically high terms of trade. We'll find out soon enough about my old friend mean reversion.

[Derek40]

I don't see the coal industry severely affected at this stage, as it is the life-blood of Newcastle and the Hunter Region.
Newcastle Port is still the largest coal export terminal in the world, and unlikely to change.
Places like Maitland in western Newcastle suburbia is the fastest growing regional area in the state.
Even Singleton continues to power ahead with new dwellings, as well as real estate and rental values, along with Muswellbrook etc, which also rely heavily on the Power Stations along with Coal Mining.
Things couldn't look brighter here (despite initial doom and gloom at Julia Gillard's tax reforms).