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Old 02-09-2019, 12:26 PM
 
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I'm half way around the world. But I'm seeing signs the RE in Australia is having what was our (US) 2008 type collapse. Is this true?

Also, as history has shown, 2008 in the US while it created huge problems, also created huge opportunities. And the opportunities presented at the height of the collapse. Is it time to start looking for those down there?
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Old 02-09-2019, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Australia
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It is not on the scale of 2008 and not caused by the same factors. What we are seeing in Sydney is a move back to the prices of a couple of years ago before the last boom. Generally in Sydney prices boom, settle and then are stable for a few years. No one really knows what is ahead but I do not think that circumstances are dictating a complete tanking of the market.
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Old 02-09-2019, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Brisbane
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
I'm half way around the world. But I'm seeing signs the RE in Australia is having what was our (US) 2008 type collapse. Is this true?

Also, as history has shown, 2008 in the US while it created huge problems, also created huge opportunities. And the opportunities presented at the height of the collapse. Is it time to start looking for those down there?
They have been saying its going to happen since 2008. At the moment prices seem to be falling mostly as a result of banks tightening lending standards and reduced immigration into Australia, rather than mortgage defaults.

Last edited by danielsa1775; 02-09-2019 at 05:06 PM..
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Old 02-10-2019, 03:51 AM
 
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Australia has among the most over inflated real estate in the world. Its people carry one of the highest personal debts, largely as a consequence. Hence how could Australia, possibly be a good buy, in fact no one knows how much further it will fall.


Houses are simply too expensive in Australia. Yes the necessary tightening of loans from banks, along with mortgage brokers dishing out loans, in places where it really should not have done so, as lead to increasing housing stress, a drop in spending across the board, as Australians slowly awake to the potential dangers of getting over their necks in falling assets.


I would definitely say to hold off and wait how this plays out. It would be about fifty/ fifty at the moment just how ugly this will get.
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Old 02-10-2019, 05:08 AM
 
Location: Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
Australia has among the most over inflated real estate in the world. Its people carry one of the highest personal debts, largely as a consequence. Hence how could Australia, possibly be a good buy, in fact no one knows how much further it will fall.


Houses are simply too expensive in Australia. Yes the necessary tightening of loans from banks, along with mortgage brokers dishing out loans, in places where it really should not have done so, as lead to increasing housing stress, a drop in spending across the board, as Australians slowly awake to the potential dangers of getting over their necks in falling assets.


I would definitely say to hold off and wait how this plays out. It would be about fifty/ fifty at the moment just how ugly this will get.
A family member is looking at houses at the moment in Sydney and is reporting about sixty groups are inspecting many properties. Near us, most properties are still selling, though more slowly. The elections here in NSW as well as the federal one are a bit of an unknown quantity for the market. But I do not believe the market will keep falling for too long. Many people do not have to sell, there will only sell if they get a reasonable price. However it is all a bit like predicting the share market, fairly unpredictable.
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Old 02-10-2019, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Washington State
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
Australia has among the most over inflated real estate in the world. Its people carry one of the highest personal debts, largely as a consequence. Hence how could Australia, possibly be a good buy, in fact no one knows how much further it will fall.


Houses are simply too expensive in Australia. Yes the necessary tightening of loans from banks, along with mortgage brokers dishing out loans, in places where it really should not have done so, as lead to increasing housing stress, a drop in spending across the board, as Australians slowly awake to the potential dangers of getting over their necks in falling assets.


I would definitely say to hold off and wait how this plays out. It would be about fifty/ fifty at the moment just how ugly this will get.
I used to think that and maybe they do but when you convert that million dollar Aussie house to US dollars, it's only around $700K US....still pricey but not far from desirable US cities prices.

I've been thinking for some time that they could have a US style 2007-2010 real estate crash but it hasn't happened. Maybe you'll just get a soft crash.

One thing I'll say, Australia is still a desirable country for many around the world and I don't see that changing any time soon.
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Old 02-10-2019, 12:20 PM
 
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So local groups are already doing what I'm talking about, which makes sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarisaMay View Post
A family member is looking at houses at the moment in Sydney and is reporting about sixty groups are inspecting many properties. Near us, most properties are still selling, though more slowly. The elections here in NSW as well as the federal one are a bit of an unknown quantity for the market. But I do not believe the market will keep falling for too long. Many people do not have to sell, there will only sell if they get a reasonable price. However it is all a bit like predicting the share market, fairly unpredictable.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Australia
605 posts, read 211,618 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BBMW View Post
So local groups are already doing what I'm talking about, which makes sense.
The people I know who are looking to sell are people in their thirties and forties who are wanting to upsize because of having young families. And retirees who want to downsize. But possibly unlike in the US the retirees are not planning to leave Sydney, just wanting something with lower maintenance. Most people will hang out for a reasonable price and many of the sellers are mortgage free anyway. So I do not see that we have the conditions for a catastrophic crash. Remember we did not go into recession in 2008 and are unlikely to do so any time soon.
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Old 02-10-2019, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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let's see a 50% drop just for the banter
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Old 02-10-2019, 06:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarisaMay View Post
A family member is looking at houses at the moment in Sydney and is reporting about sixty groups are inspecting many properties. Near us, most properties are still selling, though more slowly. The elections here in NSW as well as the federal one are a bit of an unknown quantity for the market. But I do not believe the market will keep falling for too long. Many people do not have to sell, there will only sell if they get a reasonable price. However it is all a bit like predicting the share market, fairly unpredictable.
Well is unpredictable with state intervention. If real value was the marker, sans all the enticements, we would have been in a far healthier position. A problem is of course, older folk cheering on the inflated market, while an ever growing crop of younger or missed the boat previously, desperately want a return to value. (meaning a decline in prices)


It's not merely selling of course. It is those that speculated on the altar, of ever rising house prices, now witnessing drops in asset value and rents in some cases. That and increasing interest rates regardless of what RBA does, and finally some banking responsibility in loans. (although for how long time will tell)


The housing market should never have bee allowed to become a casino play. Housing being an essential ingredient not a chip, nor akin to stock market players.


Former Coalition government has a lot of blame for the state we find ourselves in , by kicking it off.
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