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Old 08-02-2015, 10:50 PM
 
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Few are really point racing now really. They all want a win that is what the system encourages like it or not.
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Old 08-02-2015, 11:18 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,368 posts, read 15,806,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Few are really point racing now really. They all want a win that is what the system encourages like it or not.
That's all well and good but what happens if Kyle tries to win and get in (the 30th spot in points) and can stick in at 4th and he's fine with a small chance that he can run out of gas compared to racing for the checkers and he is looking at a very likely possibility of running out of gas and being say 6 points out.
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Old 08-03-2015, 06:17 AM
PDD
 
Location: The Sand Hills of NC
8,774 posts, read 14,883,407 times
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Too many "what if's" in the crew chiefs head.

What if we stay out a couple more laps to refuel so we have enough gas to finish and the yellow comes out? We lose track position.

What if we pit and nobody comes in with us.

What if we change 4 and the other guys change only 2?

Logano didn't need a good finish so his CC gambled and didn't get the win.
Bush needed a good finish and his CC gambled and he lost.

If you're running for points then fuel and a good finish is more important than a win.

The good thing about being a CD CC you get to make all the right calls Monday morning.
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Old 08-03-2015, 07:18 AM
 
32,492 posts, read 26,373,528 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PDD View Post
Too many "what if's" in the crew chiefs head.

What if we stay out a couple more laps to refuel so we have enough gas to finish and the yellow comes out? We lose track position.

What if we pit and nobody comes in with us.

What if we change 4 and the other guys change only 2?

Logano didn't need a good finish so his CC gambled and didn't get the win.
Bush needed a good finish and his CC gambled and he lost.

If you're running for points then fuel and a good finish is more important than a win.

The good thing about being a CD CC you get to make all the right calls Monday morning.
well said. sitting in your arm chair watching the race with no skin in the game, you can make decisions based on what you think should happen. the teams on the other hand have to walk a fine line of being too conservative and getting points, or being too aggressive and going for the win. personally i like the going for the win. all the teams were close on fuel, and it was a matter of who could run the fastest and still save enough to get to the end. matt kenseth was the best that day.

you can bet there were a lot of calculator batteries that were used up in that last run.
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Old 08-03-2015, 01:42 PM
 
9,426 posts, read 7,105,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
That's all well and good but what happens if Kyle tries to win and get in (the 30th spot in points) and can stick in at 4th and he's fine with a small chance that he can run out of gas compared to racing for the checkers and he is looking at a very likely possibility of running out of gas and being say 6 points out.
There's 5 more races to go.. 13 points, which is 13 positions better than Cole Whitt and David Gilliland (They're tied for 30th, so, technically, Kyle is still 32nd in points)

It was a worthwhile gamble to be one of the handful of drivers to win 4 races in a row, and have a possibility, especially with The Glen coming up.. Of being the first in.. 30+ years to win 5 in a row?

Now.. Had this been Richmond.. The cutoff race, vs the 6th to last race.. All things being equal? I'll bet you alot of money that they would have pulled him in to refuel at some point in that last run.

The odds are.. He's back in the top 30 next week.
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Old 08-04-2015, 04:43 AM
 
Location: Upstate
5,803 posts, read 6,584,716 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
There's 5 more races to go.. 13 points, which is 13 positions better than Cole Whitt and David Gilliland (They're tied for 30th, so, technically, Kyle is still 32nd in points)

It was a worthwhile gamble to be one of the handful of drivers to win 4 races in a row, and have a possibility, especially with The Glen coming up.. Of being the first in.. 30+ years to win 5 in a row?

Now.. Had this been Richmond.. The cutoff race, vs the 6th to last race.. All things being equal? I'll bet you alot of money that they would have pulled him in to refuel at some point in that last run.

The odds are.. He's back in the top 30 next week.
Certainly Joe Gibbs or NASCAR could find some incentive/penalty on these two lower-tier drivers to ensure Kyle can make the top 30. Or maybe one of JGR's drivers can pull a "Bowyer" in Richmond and take out Whitt and/or Gilland.

One way or another, the 18 will be in the Chase. It would be promoted as THE comeback story of all times. Great for ratings!
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Old 08-04-2015, 12:17 PM
 
32,492 posts, read 26,373,528 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USNRET04 View Post
Certainly Joe Gibbs or NASCAR could find some incentive/penalty on these two lower-tier drivers to ensure Kyle can make the top 30. Or maybe one of JGR's drivers can pull a "Bowyer" in Richmond and take out Whitt and/or Gilland.

One way or another, the 18 will be in the Chase. It would be promoted as THE comeback story of all times. Great for ratings!
none of the other JGR drivers will pull a "bowyer" because the penalties would be far too harsh.

and i doubt that nascar will pull a penalty out of the hat just to get busch in.
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Old 08-04-2015, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
27,368 posts, read 15,806,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
There's 5 more races to go.. 13 points, which is 13 positions better than Cole Whitt and David Gilliland (They're tied for 30th, so, technically, Kyle is still 32nd in points)

It was a worthwhile gamble to be one of the handful of drivers to win 4 races in a row, and have a possibility, especially with The Glen coming up.. Of being the first in.. 30+ years to win 5 in a row?

Now.. Had this been Richmond.. The cutoff race, vs the 6th to last race.. All things being equal? I'll bet you alot of money that they would have pulled him in to refuel at some point in that last run.

The odds are.. He's back in the top 30 next week.
The Glen is still tricky with fuel mileage and how hard people race, especially with Chase scenarios at stake. If I were Kyle, I'd points race The Glen. No need to go for the W. So you don't get another win of bonus points, he wins a chase race in each segment, he moves on anyway. Go for the sure thing.
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Old 08-06-2015, 08:51 AM
 
Location: NY
9,071 posts, read 15,053,563 times
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I do not think KB was worried about making it into the top 30 in time last week, and I doubt he is too worried about it now. Plenty of races to go, and 13 points on 30th position really is not much at all considering there is a very low chance the drivers around 30th will be finishing high too often.
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Old 08-10-2015, 11:21 AM
 
9,426 posts, read 7,105,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
The Glen is still tricky with fuel mileage and how hard people race, especially with Chase scenarios at stake. If I were Kyle, I'd points race The Glen. No need to go for the W. So you don't get another win of bonus points, he wins a chase race in each segment, he moves on anyway. Go for the sure thing.
There was a point there (It's still a point, but the race you're referencing has ended, so..).. Because last car on the lead lap at the Glen is quite often well down in the 30's. Last car yesterday was Michael Annette in 31st and that was actually higher than normal. Usually it's 35 to 36 cars still on the lead lap.

Whitt actually had something of a surprising run. While it was pit strategy that had him near the front.. He was in front, and got a pretty decent 21st place finish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Checkered24 View Post
I do not think KB was worried about making it into the top 30 in time last week, and I doubt he is too worried about it now. Plenty of races to go, and 13 points on 30th position really is not much at all considering there is a very low chance the drivers around 30th will be finishing high too often.
Look at the upcoming races.. Michigan, Bristol, Darlington and Richmond.

At three of those, you have to consider Busch a favorite to win. With Michigan being a possibility, but not likely.

You don't see Whitt or Gilliland having a prayer of sniffing a top 15, or really, even a top 20 finish at 2 of them, Michigan and Darlington.. Bristol and Richmond are possibilities, Bristol moreso.

Of course, there's the possibility that Busch has a 43rd place finish like he did earlier at Michigan(?).. But, that happens, he generally loses about 10 points to Whittiland. He finishes 5th.. He gains about 30 points on them.

I figure it will be settled that he's in before Richmond.. Meaning, that he'll have a > 47 point lead on 31st in the points. And, he's only a point behind Allgaier, so, that's another buffer position.
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