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I don't thni tehy will, I think we will see otehr alternative make electric non-iisue.But I doubt any of us will see them out numbers gasoline powered.
There are 200 million registered vehicles in the US alone. Even if all manufacturers switched TODAY to an all electric sales, it would take 30 years to replace all the cars in the US. And that's if everything was perfect and everyone WANTED to switch.
Manufacturers can't MAKE enough electric cars to replace half the fleet even if everyone wanted them. And at the present rate of developemnt, even if everyone wanted electric cars it would take well over 20 years of manufacturing to even come CLOSE to getting to half the total fleet on the road.
So I don't even know why car guys protest them coming, when it's simply not going to negatively affect us in any way in the forseeable future, just from a manufacturing standpoint alone.
Hydrogen is a non-starter in this game, however. Electrics are still the best bet for replacing gasoline/diesel, as oil becomes scarcer and more expensive (or runs out entirely)
Range is still the limiter. A gas car has a range of 400-500 miles, and even then, you can hike out for an emergency fuel supply---you can't carry spare cans of electricity. I'd feel uncomfortable driving anywhere off the main highway grid with a car that doesn't have much range.
So would most agree that totally gas driven cars will still be the most common in say 20 years?
Even if everyone wanted to switch and electric cars were perfect for everyone, it would take longer than that to be able to manufacture enough electric cars to replace all the gas cars.
I don't think anyone has considered that once a large percentage of vehicles are electric the electrical grid will be impacted. Where will the additional electricity come from? Nuclear? Coal Fired plants? we aren't investing anything in improving the grid
Anyone want to guesss when more electric and hybrid vehicles will outnumber gas vehicles? I am thinking that especially new car purchases will still be mostly gas powered for at least the next 10-15 years, but I don't any stats or proof.
Range is still the limiter. A gas car has a range of 400-500 miles, and even then, you can hike out for an emergency fuel supply---you can't carry spare cans of electricity. I'd feel uncomfortable driving anywhere off the main highway grid with a car that doesn't have much range.
There may be electric cars with a 200-mile range, but hot the kinds of cars you would drive to Alaska.
Who drives to Alaska, even once in their lifetime?
I agree range is still the big problem. If you could recharge batteries as fast as you can fill up a gas tank, it wouldn't be a big deal. But the Nissan Leaf - which I see every day now in Austin, can only go 75-100 miles on a charge. My commute is 55 miles round trip. If I ran an errand during the day, I would be close to out of range. I don't want to drive a car that leaves me unable to deal with an unscheduled trip.
So for me a car with just ~ 100 mile range doesn't work. 200? Probably more than good enough.
Who drives to Alaska, even once in their lifetime?
I agree range is still the big problem. If you could recharge batteries as fast as you can fill up a gas tank, it wouldn't be a big deal. But the Nissan Leaf - which I see every day now in Austin, can only go 75-100 miles on a charge. My commute is 55 miles round trip. If I ran an errand during the day, I would be close to out of range. I don't want to drive a car that leaves me unable to deal with an unscheduled trip.
So for me a car with just ~ 100 mile range doesn't work. 200? Probably more than good enough.
Until they get the charging times down, I wouldn't consider 200 good enough. It still means the car is an 'around town' only car. You can't even take a weekend trip on 200 miles. Boston to NY - 225 miles. Wash DC to NY - 215 miles. Forget Pittsburgh - NY, or Austin - Dallas. Austin - Houston? Be ready to spend the night.
If they made an electric car with a 200 mile range that could charge in under 10 minutes, I would buy it.
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