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Old 04-01-2016, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Pikesville, MD
2,983 posts, read 3,055,380 times
Reputation: 4552

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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveklein View Post
Elon Musk has literally made 11 figures because of government subsidies. If it weren't for the $5 billion his companies have received from the taxpayers, none of his companies would exist today.

Hasn't Tesla been in the red for 40+ straight quarters? After a decade or so, shouldn't a company stand on their own?

Tesla has been running in the red because they sink every penny back into the company and into things like the Gigafactory and rolling out the Supercharger network. The Model S and Model X are funding the Model 3 and the Gigafactory, as well as the vertical integration with Solar City.


So yeah, when a company sinks all it's profits into R&D and expansion, it shows losses. That's how it works anywhere, not just at Tesla.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:02 PM
 
Location: Pikesville, MD
2,983 posts, read 3,055,380 times
Reputation: 4552
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
It'll get cheaper, but it's not good my to surpass ICE any time soon. Battery density is the problem. There have been few strides in making it better in the past 100 years. Battery limitations are the reason hybrids never took off. Asking a battery to pull a boat 100 miles and back is asking a lot. 40 minute charge times just for a sedan is pathetic. Try charging a semi truck. Fuel cells are far more scalable. EV is just a technology appropriate for a hand full of cars, nothing more. !ts not going replace ICE anytime soon.
You don't need rapid charging for the most part when 99% of your daily driving is within the 100-200 mile range of the batteries and you can start each day out with a full charge, because your car is charging at night while you are sleeping. That's the part so many people don't get. Living with an EV for a couple years was eye opening as to the possibilities. I'd love a Model 3 or a Bolt next.


As for battery density, a few years ago, 35-60 mile range was it. then 100 miles. Now Tesla's hitting 250 miles+ in the Model S and GM has gone from a 80 mile Spark EV to the 200 mile Bolt and battery tech is evolving FAST. NiMH was supplanted by Li, and now Li is about to be supplanted by Lithium-Air and Aluminum-Air batteries that have much higher densities yet. 300-400 mile ranges with fast charge capabilities are a lot closer than you might think. And with regulatory choices in place for CAFE standards here in the US and countries around the world starting to ban ICE cars in urban areas (and places like the Netherlands requiring only EVs to be sold new by 2030) you're going to see a much more rapid shift to EVs. They will still be fun to drive, practical to commute in, and cleaner for the air (as we phase out coal for natural gas, cleaner yet, and it's easier to keep a central power source running clean than a million individual point sources that are, by their nature, getting dirtier the more they are used...).


Now, on the practical side, it'll take decades to even MAKE enough EVs to start to supplant ICE cars in a place as large as the US, with it's 200 million cars now. Every manufacturer would have to switch entirely to EV production right now and produce at current rates, in order to replace most of the 200 million cars we have in the US in the next 3 decades. That's not going to happen, but not because EVs aren't ready yet or because they are a bad idea, or because there isn't infrastructure for them yet. Just the realities of production capabilities.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:07 PM
 
3,253 posts, read 3,734,693 times
Reputation: 4465
Quote:
Originally Posted by iTsLiKeAnEgG View Post
I wouldn't expect them to be out of the red until they are well into Model 3 deliveries (or beyond) because they reinvest heavily into R&D and product development. Negatives look awful on paper but its important to consider where the money is going (as opposed to an established long term business being constantly in the red with nothing ground breaking or new to chew up resources). It's an interesting way to run a business for sure but not awful if you can keep investors reasonably happy/confident. I believe Amazon is in a similar situation due to all of the constant expansion.
Amazon has made a profit in 45 of the last 50 quarters. So no, their situation is nothing like Tesla. (though I would agree that so many people buying things tax free gives them a leg up on brick and mortar retailers that perhaps they should not have).

Tesla's stock has soared in large part due to government subsidies. That is in effect a transfer payment from the taxpayers to Elon Musk and other big Tesla shareholders.

I get it, to a point... but there just seems something wrong with the idea that Musk can make 11 figures from a business that isn't sustainable on its own. And that is fine to some point. But shouldn't some of those subsidies be returned to the taxpayers instead of Musk just basking in billions?

I like where Tesla is going, and the idea of electric, self-driving cars is tantalizing... but I find it absurd that everyone wants to make pariahs out of Wall Street types but aren't afraid to get on their knees for Elon.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
21,676 posts, read 24,828,364 times
Reputation: 18907
Quote:
Originally Posted by harhar View Post
Trips, as we like to go on them often. But the sooner we can ditch ICE for our commuters, the better.

(I'll still have an S2000, Miata, or Porsche in the garage, especially when I hit my mid-life crisis though. )
Yeah, that's kind of an idea I'm tossing around. Sell the Prius, get a Tesla Model 3, buy a weekend car for when I need range or want something fun. I regret selling the S2000. It'd cost me at least as much for the same year I sold seven years ago with more miles, probably more. AP2 especially is now P car money. Boxster S you could pick up cheaper, Cayman base for maybe a bit less Cayman S for a bit more but around the same amount. Despite the cost of ownership, I'd lean towards a Cayman (S preferably although the base isn't a slouch either).

I really can't afford to do Model 3 + Cayman or S2000. So that's kind of my down the road dilemma when the student loans are paid off and car loan, both in about 3 1/2 years. Replace the Prius with a Model 3 and maybe pick up something cheap like an NB Miata (or just use rental cars) for when I need the range or keep the Prius and get a Cayman or possibly F-Type. Or just another motorcycle. I think I may have fallen off the horse there though. Bent swing arm 6" from where my leg was from an old geezer pulling out of a parking lot on top of me... that bikes dead, still have the 250, but I've barely ridden in the last six months.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Whittier
3,004 posts, read 6,246,721 times
Reputation: 3081
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Yeah, that's kind of an idea I'm tossing around. Sell the Prius, get a Tesla Model 3, buy a weekend car for when I need range or want something fun. I regret selling the S2000. It'd cost me at least as much for the same year I sold seven years ago with more miles, probably more. AP2 especially is now P car money. Boxster S you could pick up cheaper, Cayman base for maybe a bit less Cayman S for a bit more but around the same amount. Despite the cost of ownership, I'd lean towards a Cayman (S preferably although the base isn't a slouch either).

I really can't afford to do Model 3 + Cayman or S2000. So that's kind of my down the road dilemma when the student loans are paid off and car loan, both in about 3 1/2 years. Replace the Prius with a Model 3 and maybe pick up something cheap (or just use rental cars) for when I need the range or keep the Prius and get a Cayman. Or just another motorcycle. I think I may have fallen off the horse there though. Bent swing arm 6" from where my leg was from an old geezer pulling out of a parking lot on top of me... that bikes dead, still have the 250, but I've barely ridden in the last six months.
Lol. Switched at birth?

I had a 2006 S2000, but had to sell in 2008 because of a move. I think I sold it for 27,5. I think I was looking recently for a similar one and they're like 22-25k for a lower mileage one. Crazy.

My wife currently has a Prius, I have a GTI. I'll take her Prius, as she's in line to get another car. Probably an SUV/possibly hybrid SUV...possibly Volt.

Then after the leases end in 2020-21 I'll most likely sell the Prius and get a used Model 3. Her car should be paid off by then, and we should be in a position where I can get a toy. *crosses fingers*

If I get a Porsche it'd most likely be a project car, like an 80's Targa. I do like the recent Boxters, and I really don't see too many of them.

Never got into bikes. I mean I was into them, just never rode. Wife's not a fan, and honestly I'd be to chicken anyway.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:38 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiffer E38 View Post
Tesla has been running in the red because they sink every penny back into the company and into things like the Gigafactory and rolling out the Supercharger network. The Model S and Model X are funding the Model 3 and the Gigafactory, as well as the vertical integration with Solar City.


So yeah, when a company sinks all it's profits into R&D and expansion, it shows losses. That's how it works anywhere, not just at Tesla.
That's how most companies work, especially automotive. You're never done investing. Soon the Model S will need a new generation, then then more dealers, more chargers, more batteries and so on...forever.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:44 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
5,994 posts, read 19,921,773 times
Reputation: 4078
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
That's how most companies work, especially automotive. You're never done investing. Soon the Model S will need a new generation, then then more dealers, more chargers, more batteries and so on...forever.
I'd argue that for a company like Tesla the investment is significantly heavier early on. They're learning so much from building the basic product portfolio that subsequent generations will be less intensive to develop as a ratio of sales. The car business is expensive and doubly so when you're the only one making electrics.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:45 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by iTsLiKeAnEgG View Post
Energy density isn't an issue at this point and its only going to get better. The Model S gets close to 300 miles and my 2010 Hyundai Genesis Sedan V8 gets about 330 miles per tank if I'm light on the throttle. The Model S was never built as a track car as that isn't the intended purpose although you're bound to see more legitimate electric sports cars as electrics become more mainstream. I personally haven't bothered with hybrids as the math never panned out but they are a bridging technology and the benefits of electrics are far greater.
Model S does not get 300 miles. That was they were pumping initially, but EPA slapped them with a 265 range. Of course that was charged to 100% which of course Tesla does not recommend due to battery degradation, so it's actuall 80% of that (212). In winter you can burn up almost half your range in electric heating (106 miles now), then of course you really only have a radius of half that unless you gave a supercharger right at the end of trip. So that's really 53 miles one way range in winter. Wanna tow something? Forget it. The limitations of batteries are clear even for an expensive sedan. For trucks, buses, or even race cars Batteries are a terrible choice. You also have to deal with the fact it degrades every day.
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Old 04-01-2016, 03:52 PM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,864,792 times
Reputation: 6842
Quote:
Originally Posted by iTsLiKeAnEgG View Post
I'd argue that for a company like Tesla the investment is significantly heavier early on. They're learning so much from building the basic product portfolio that subsequent generations will be less intensive to develop as a ratio of sales. The car business is expensive and doubly so when you're the only one making electrics.
It's even more expensive when your am funding your own dealer network and global refueling infrastructure. Needless to say there are some foolish moves made by Tesla. They're learning the hard way because they assume other automakers don't do things simply because they're not progressive enough and not because they have over a century experience and know better.
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Old 04-01-2016, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
21,676 posts, read 24,828,364 times
Reputation: 18907
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveklein View Post
Amazon has made a profit in 45 of the last 50 quarters. So no, their situation is nothing like Tesla. (though I would agree that so many people buying things tax free gives them a leg up on brick and mortar retailers that perhaps they should not have).
If you look at the last five years, 2011 to 2015, Amazon has made a profit in three of those five years. Both are growth stocks, not mature ones. You're looking at future earning potential far more than present earning potential.
Quote:
Tesla's stock has soared in large part due to government subsidies. That is in effect a transfer payment from the taxpayers to Elon Musk and other big Tesla shareholders.
I get it, to a point... but there just seems something wrong with the idea that Musk can make 11 figures from a business that isn't sustainable on its own. And that is fine to some point. But shouldn't some of those subsidies be returned to the taxpayers instead of Musk just basking in billions?
Public company. Buy some shares and you get the same benefit. (Note: I do not own Tesla stock. I do own Amazon stock, one of the handful of stocks I own directly mostly invested in index funds, one of which does include Tesla.

Quote:
I like where Tesla is going, and the idea of electric, self-driving cars is tantalizing... but I find it absurd that everyone wants to make pariahs out of Wall Street types but aren't afraid to get on their knees for Elon.
Wall Street is one scandal after another. M&A buy and strip and S&L of the '80s, P&D of the dot com era with Enron and Worldcom, MBS collusion with the big IBs shopping the ratings companies for AAA ratings while fully knowing they were selling junk rated at AAA and not caring because they were short and the junkier their AAA rated junk was and the more it failed the more profit they made, straight out Madoff levels of fraud. It's not the majority of Wall Street but it's ever present.

Not a huge fan of the corporate welfare Tesla has benefited from myself, but Tesla isn't nearly at the level of A123 or Fisker or GM. Tesla/SolarCity operate in the same market everyone else does. If it didn't go to Tesla/Solar City, it'd go somewhere else. Better it go to the best company than A123 or Fisker or other flops. Comperatively, Tesla/SolarCity are still relatively small fry. The Big Three, Boeing, Intel, and the mother of all corporate welfare Boeing. The perplexing one to me is Nike. Why does Nike get corporate welfare? While I see the collective interest in other areas, I don't see it. There's definitely a collective interest in clean energy, domestic auto production, aeronautics... but cheap athletic shoes? I don't see it. Not the hugest fan of it in general, but if you're going to subsidize something clean energy and electric cars makes more sense than basketball shoes.
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