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Unlikely. If there is oil in the ground, there will be ICE's. Electric will not fully take over till you can get 300+ miles to a charge, and you can recharge in under 5 minutes.
absolute nonsense. The paradigm shift that is already happening is cars will have a small engine whose sole purpose is to charge the battery. You could drive as long as you want. The only problem they need to figure out is how to prevent the gas from going stale from short trips where the tank of gas doesn't get used up quickly enough.
Imagine a small diesel or natural gas powered charging engine and many hundred of miles per gallon is just around the corner.
Recently read this book: Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030
The author says conventional cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) will become obsolete by 2030.
Unless something drastic happens, I will never buy another ICE vehicle again.
My 2012 Honda Accord is the last ICE vehicle I will ever own. It just turned 36,000 miles, and the way that I drive, this car should last a long, long time.
I plan to buy an electric car, sometime in the 2019-2020 timeframe. By then, there should be a lot of affordable models on the market with a minimum range of 200 miles. I will keep the Accord for long road trips.
Anyone else with this plan? You're not planning to buy any more ICE vehicles?
Some 25 years ago, an acquaintance quit his well-paying job as a mechanical engineer and got a degree in ceramic engineering because mechanical engineering designing metal parts was going to be obsolete. I think he retired last year after having designed his last truck transmission.
Location: San Ramon, Seattle, Anchorage, Reykjavik
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gunslinger256
absolute nonsense. The paradigm shift that is already happening is cars will have a small engine whose sole purpose is to charge the battery. You could drive as long as you want. The only problem they need to figure out is how to prevent the gas from going stale from short trips where the tank of gas doesn't get used up quickly enough.
Imagine a small diesel or natural gas powered charging engine and many hundred of miles per gallon is just around the corner.
Regarding fuel going stale - that's an straightforward fix. Although straight unleaded / hydrocarbon fuel will stay stable for 10 years or so, the E10 - E85 we get in the US is good for about 6 months, even lower if there is any water in the fuel. However, AvGas, 100LL, has a shelf life of a minimum 1 year and is typically stable for 10 years with no degradation. The fact that they include a small amount of lead in AvGas could be fixed. So, a straight hydrocarbon unleaded or AvGas would work.
Used 2017 volts are a joke. $35 k or more. They take the tax credit and then resell it at a profit?
2016 volts with 10,000 plus miles are mostly listed for $30K and above, a few in the high 20s but mostly in California for some reason. Probably because California gave volt buyers an additional tax credit.
Very few 2015s. Generally in the $22 - $26K range.
2013s and 2014s seem to really drop and there are a lot of them. They are in the 16 - 17K range with a few in the 20-22 and one for 30K (Why?). I wonder if there is some reason the 2013 and 2014 volts are less desirable. Did something change? Were they missing something later volts have?
The problem with buying used, if you finance, is the interest rates are much higher for used, and that eats up a lot of your savings for buying used. When I bought my truck, the interest rate used was 13% compared to 1.9% if I bought a new one. That is a huge difference in the total amount paid, although I can now probably refinance it at a lower rate now.
Still as long as the van is functional and free (as to payments anyway) even a used volt cannot be justified by the savings in gasoline. Except on long trips we do not use much gas for the van because it does not go very far. A volt would use no gas on those short trips, but would be impractical for long trips, so we would have to rent something if my truck was not available.
did you really expect a used volt to be under $5000? especially ones that are just a few years old?
Are making and recycling batteries and making electricity actually more environmentally friendly? Just asking?
I also have this funny picture in my head of all the cars on the freeway piled up in a rest area looking for a plug, like scenes at the airport or at a conference ballroom, where people line the walls looking for a phone charge.
Own a pure electric vehicle (Leaf) and a non-plugin Hybrid (Prius V). Both cars have their plusses and minuses. Our Leaf is our commuter car. Never gas up, never have to change the oil, no radiators, etc. Did I wish it had a bit more range? Absolutely. 150 or 200 would make me feel a little better.
The Prius V (the big Prius) gets over 45 MPG, and since it's an ICE has a range of about 460. So that's our car for longer trips.
In the end I think the market will be dominated by 2 types of cars. Pure Electrics and Plug-in Hybrids that get 50+ miles in electric mode and can kick over to an ICE engine when needed/wanted (like Volt or CMax Energi). As time goes on I think the pure electric range of these Plugins will just keep getting longer and longer.
Lots of people here seem to think they have exclusive use of a working Crystal ball.....perhaps they should spend more time trading the stock market then writing here.
Lots of people here seem to think they have exclusive use of a working Crystal ball.....perhaps they should spend more time trading the stock market then writing here.
And some people (actually, just you) don't seem to understand that people are just posting their opinion. Some people agree with their opinion and some don't. It makes for a nice discussion, but my crystal ball tells me that you don't seem to understand that.
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