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Human drivers suck. Even good ones. You might be a race car driver, but throw in a long day, kids screaming in the back, rain, sun in your eyes, fatigue, etc and now you're a sucky driver. A computer never gets tired, drunk, distracted, and it can see everywhere at once.
And if you have a multi-million car cloud computer with swarm intelligence that can recall every decision it's ever had to make, every human driver its ever driven next to, every condition it's ever been exposed to simultaneously... being better than Joe IQ 100 is easy.
Something like the Tesla autonomous fleets circa 2025 could be a global multi-million car cloud with swarm intelligence attached to a low-latency 4,425 satellite internet constellation that maps and remembers every single road every day and will know when something is wrong.<> Autonomous EVs are coming, and when they do, they will bankrupt traditional OEMs faster than anyone would have thought possible.
Something like the Tesla autonomous fleets circa 2025 could be a global multi-million car cloud with swarm intelligence attached to a low-latency 4,425 satellite internet constellation that maps and remembers every single road every day and will know when something is wrong. It will remember specific patterns on that road a learn from it. It will probably remember specific (human) drivers and learn from that as well ("License #222-A432 is often erratic, take extra caution). It will be attached to weather radars a know incoming weather before it happens. Fleet operators could also hire hundreds of remote human pilots for when the computer is stumped, and the swarm will learn from human operator's decisions.
Autonomous EVs are coming, and when they do, they will bankrupt traditional OEMs faster than anyone would have thought possible.
No. Autonomous cars are coming. Traditional OEMs will not be bankrupt because they're pioneering the technology. Autonomous cars do not have to be EV. EV's are not popular nor necessary while autonomous vehicles have an enormous comfort and income potential.
That's like 40 years ago saying fuel injected cars will bankrupt traditional OEMs.
What concerns me most is security. A few days ago there was massive cyber attack in Europe which shut down banks, stores, airports and mass transits systems. Imagine such an attack on an automated vehicle system, I shudder to imagine.
Yep, the problems are already there. You already can hack into some cars and disrupt their throttle and brakes, thats already been done. Hacking into Automated vehicles shouldnt be anymore difficult.
Yep, the problems are already there. You already can hack into some cars and disrupt their throttle and brakes, thats already been done. Hacking into Automated vehicles shouldnt be anymore difficult.
Have you tried hacking into an airplane?
You don't need an internet connection to make an autonomous vehicle.
No. Autonomous cars are coming. Traditional OEMs will not be bankrupt because they're pioneering the technology. Autonomous cars do not have to be EV. EV's are not popular nor necessary while autonomous vehicles have an enormous comfort and income potential.
That's like 40 years ago saying fuel injected cars will bankrupt traditional OEMs.
EVs last much longer (500,000+ miles), have energy costs 3x lower(at residential electricity prices, fleet operators will probably be able to buy at industrial rates, so it'd be even lower) and have maintenance costs that are just a fraction of ICE vehicles(100 times less moving parts, no oil changes, less wear on brakes, etc.). Ride-hailing will cost *much* less in a EV so that's why fleets will use them.
Because of all this, using an autonomous EV will cost a fraction of owning your own car. It will even cost less than an old paid-off car (gas, insurance, maint.) in terms of cost per mile.
The reason OEMs of traditional individually-owned will disappear is because each autonomous car will be able to take ~10 regular cars off the road in terms of being able to satisfy demand. When fleets are growing by just a few million a year, that's taking 10's of millions of cars' worth of individual travelling capacity. 5 million a year (easily possibly by 2024)? 50 million cars worth. Used cars will drop in value, because people won't need them (supply and demand) and eventually the depreciation curve on individually owned ICE cars will be so steep that most people who want to buy new wont be able to because their trade-ins will be worth way less than before and finance companies will no longer loan them the money to do so.
Sales of new ICE cars will crash, to around nothing... "Toy" cars will probably be the only survivors (Sports cars, motorcycles, ATVs, etc. Individually owned commuter cars? dead. Rich people will probably even only lease their cars for a year or two then give them to premium ride-sharing services when they're done.
EVs last much longer (500,000+ miles), have energy costs 3x lower(at residential electricity prices, fleet operators will probably be able to buy at industrial rates, so it'd be even lower) and have maintenance costs that are just a fraction of ICE vehicles(100 times less moving parts, no oil changes, less wear on brakes, etc.). Ride-hailing will cost *much* less in a EV so that's why fleets will use them.
Because of all this, using an autonomous EV will cost a fraction of owning your own car. It will even cost less than an old paid-off car (gas, insurance, maint.) in terms of cost per mile.
The reason OEMs of traditional individually-owned will disappear is because each autonomous car will be able to take ~10 regular cars off the road in terms of being able to satisfy demand. When fleets are growing by just a few million a year, that's taking 10's of millions of cars' worth of individual travelling capacity. 5 million a year (easily possibly by 2024)? 50 million cars worth. Used cars will drop in value, because people won't need them (supply and demand) and eventually the depreciation curve on individually owned ICE cars will be so steep that most people who want to buy new wont be able to because their trade-ins will be worth way less than before and finance companies will no longer loan them the money to do so.
Sales of new ICE cars will crash, to around nothing... "Toy" cars will probably be the only survivors (Sports cars, motorcycles, ATVs, etc. Individually owned commuter cars? dead. Rich people will probably even only lease their cars for a year or two then give them to premium ride-sharing services when they're done.
Um, no. I'm not "sharing" a ride with anyone, nor do I want to ride in a vehicle that's had some filthy person riding in it 30 minutes ago. I like my own car, sitting in my garage, waiting on me whenever I decide to go somewhere.
Now if you live in an urban area, feel free to share all the rides you want, you're probably used to public transit anyways. For those of us in rural and suburban America, we like our freedom.
EVs last much longer (500,000+ miles), have energy costs 3x lower(at residential electricity prices, fleet operators will probably be able to buy at industrial rates, so it'd be even lower) and have maintenance costs that are just a fraction of ICE vehicles(100 times less moving parts, no oil changes, less wear on brakes, etc.). Ride-hailing will cost *much* less in a EV so that's why fleets will use them.
Because of all this, using an autonomous EV will cost a fraction of owning your own car. It will even cost less than an old paid-off car (gas, insurance, maint.) in terms of cost per mile.
The reason OEMs of traditional individually-owned will disappear is because each autonomous car will be able to take ~10 regular cars off the road in terms of being able to satisfy demand. When fleets are growing by just a few million a year, that's taking 10's of millions of cars' worth of individual travelling capacity. 5 million a year (easily possibly by 2024)? 50 million cars worth. Used cars will drop in value, because people won't need them (supply and demand) and eventually the depreciation curve on individually owned ICE cars will be so steep that most people who want to buy new wont be able to because their trade-ins will be worth way less than before and finance companies will no longer loan them the money to do so.
Sales of new ICE cars will crash, to around nothing... "Toy" cars will probably be the only survivors (Sports cars, motorcycles, ATVs, etc. Individually owned commuter cars? dead. Rich people will probably even only lease their cars for a year or two then give them to premium ride-sharing services when they're done.
Keep dreaming. How many EV's you know have made it to 500k miles?
Lower operating cost? What's cheaper a Civic or a Model 3?
Most importantly, 99% of the world doesn't agree with you, hence EVs are still a niche. 40% of Americans don't have a garage. Charging stations? Imagine all of I 95 on July 4th charging at the same time.
Car sharing will never take off. What people never seem to understand is Americans love car ownership. Even poor people buy cars and modify them. A van pool is one of the cheapest ways to commute and people still drive themselves. An autonomous Uber is only going to take people bar hopping and to the airport, just like they do now.
Reality is Americans like to go where they want, when they want and not wait for public transportation.
Um, no. I'm not "sharing" a ride with anyone, nor do I want to ride in a vehicle that's had some filthy person riding in it 30 minutes ago. I like my own car, sitting in my garage, waiting on me whenever I decide to go somewhere.
One intriguing idea I heard was you would own your own cabin. The base of the car would be rented or whatever and show up to mate with the cabin. While this wouldn't solve the instant get in the car situation and would certainly have limitations it may make a lot of sense for some people. If it could prove less costly it could make driving around more affordable to those that can't afford the full car. Certainly would make sense in a dense urban environment.
In both of those cases an automated car is best option given the faster reaction time. It should know to stop for a school bus in the first place. Humans don't necessarily ask themselves ethical questions in the middle of an emergency.
Right--and the reality is that the human may not have even seen the children because they were looking down at their phone, changing a radio station, etc.
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