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Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,551 posts, read 81,103,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens
Ouch, $2.19 here (for credit cash is cheaper) and Michgian is more expensive than many other places (Ohio and Missouri tend to be considerably cheaper for example). It is amazing how widely it varies state to state. Some variation makes sens, taxes mixtures and whatnot. But that is a huge difference.
Based on our rate of about .10/kWh, and kWh required per the Tesla website, charging from totally flat to full charge runs about $10. Assuming a 300 mile range, that could take a day, a week or a month depending on driving habits/commute, but it does work out to less than the cost of gas. I usually fill my car with gas at just over 300 miles, and at 21-22 mpg and $2.69/gal it's going to be over $40.
Or, if you have a free fast charging station nearby (Tesla or otherwise) or a destination charger at your workplace, you can cut out that expense altogether.
SpaceX is almost as risky. First, he still only has one mega customer (NASA) and NASA is politically fickle these days. One wrong election result and SpaceX's best customer can walk away leaving Elon with no profitable business plan. His launch record is terrible and his method of testing rockets through actual failure as opposed to solid analysis is a bit alarming for someone hoping to fly humans.
Not to belabor the point that Musk's SpaceX is doing really well, but I thought this article was notable. In 2017, SpaceX will have 45% of the market share for all commercial (non-government) launches in the world. Next year should be 60%, which by definition is more than all other companies combined.
Batteries may well rival or surpass engines for longevity at least in terms of miles. There is not enough data to say, but the whole "you will have to spend thousands to replace the batteries" myth appears to be a myth. Sure with a million or so EVs and hybrids out there, there must be some that have needed battery replacement, but it seems pretty rare. Look at older used EVs/hybrids (but not too old). See how many are offered with "new batteries" If you go back to 1998 or so, when technology was just getting going, there were EVs that required fairly frequent battery replacement this is probably where the myth comes form, or maybe the oil companies just hired people to spread it around and make it look like a fact.
Fast charging does wear the batteries much more quickly. I would not fast charge regularly. Recharge times are a PIA and if you want a faster charger to use at your house, it is very expensive.
What bothers me the most about pure EVs is there is not easy fix if you run out along the way. Someday you are going to mess up and forget to check. You cannot call home and have someone bring you a bottle of electricity. The highway patrols who in some sates will give you a gallon of gas if you run out, cannot give you a gallon of electricity. You cannot walk to a service station and buy a battery and some electricity. OK so you rarely run out of gas in a gas car, I have maybe 10 times in 38 years of driving and maybe a million miles or more, but it will happen. Everyone makes mistakes. When it happens in an EV a tow truck it your only option. Because of this and range limitations, I would never get a pure EV, at least not with today's configurations and support. When batteries are standardized and you can just go to a gas station and exchange for a full battery, and/or carry a spare, then it might be practical for me. However I would love to have a volt and never have to sit at a gas station waiting for 26 gallons to transfer again.
If you add up all the time you spend waiting for the gasoline tank to fill up and compare it to the time you spend actually waiting for a re-charge (letting it sit overnight while you are sleeping does not count as waiting). The EV may actually be more time efficient.
I would not worry about the environmental issue. Because of all the fake, slanted and other data and studies out there, you will never know the truth of which one has less impact on the environment when you factor in all of the complex impacts that occur. (including, mining, shipping, manufacturing, disposal etc). The fact is, you cannot know the truth, so there is no point in worrying about it. In any event, your personal choice of EV or gasser is not going to have any significant impact on global warming, waste quantities, or anything else. Even a few million people's choice is not going to make any significant difference. Get it because you like it, or it makes you feel better, or it is fun, or you hate going to gas stations. . . . not because what other people want you to do.
Did you mention that used replacement batteries are much cheaper? As with Prius there have been many more wrecks then batteries dying on their own. Used on eBay might be $1000 and less.
It's typical for people without money to worship those with money. He may be smarter than your typical blue collar guy on the street, but from a CEO standpoint he's at the bottom of the heap.
Remember, Elon's net worth is 100% tied to his unprofitable companies and an insanely valued stock price.
Last week alone he lost $1.7 Billion in 2 days. Remember hearing financial advisers tell you not to invest too much in your own companie's stock for retirement? Tesla has been known to recede $150 a share for no particular reason. Imagine what would happen if an actual negative catalyst materializes? Like the reality that Tesla will possibly never be profitable even after the highly speculative Model 3 hits the road?
Part of the catch in secondary offerings is that you're not allowed to massively sell off your companies stock for a specific amount of time after the offering. When the market tanks, you can sell off and get out of it. Elon is commited to riding that thing to the bottom.
On the plus side, your 9-5 job is probably far less dramatic and stressful. Imagine working 24/7 and risking bad news that can erase billions of your worth and reputation with it?
Word. It's not like Musk can write a $15B check and not expect a visit from a sheriff. That pile of paper certificates is worthless when (((wall street))) says it is.
Besides, smart guys don't typically have to beg for money after a divorce.
I would not be surprised if the next market correction comes out of a company like Tesla. There's something telling about how a company can lose $400 million dollars in a quarter and the stock still goes up. The fed has kept rates so low for so long that people are chasing unicorn farts over the rainbow. I'm sure some will grumble about how I must hold a short position, but I don't.
The stock is highly overvalued
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