Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
So I would say the first driverless car will be sold in 2030. 50% of cars will be driverless by 2070, 90% will be driverless by 2100.
I think the market saturation will happen MUCH faster than cellphones, much less microwaves, because the technology is much more tightly connected at a system level. Whether your neighbor owns a microwave or not has zero impact on you and how you cook in your kitchen. Whether your neighbor owns a cell phone or not has little impact - you might notice a difference in clarity, or ability to send SMS messages - but certainly no safety impact. Whether your neighbor owns a driverless car or not will have a huge impact on you when you drive on the same roads at the same times. If the reduction in accidents is nearly as significant as predicted, it will only be a matter of a few years before it starts being mandated and not subjected to free market forces.
The first driverless cars sold are on the road already in various areas. Waymo, the autonomous vehicle division of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reached an important milestone recently: since mid-October, the company has been operating its autonomous minivans on public roads in Arizona without a safety driver — or any human at all — behind the wheel. They've been used as taxis in Arizona already, and will soon be used by Avis and Lyft across the country. So I"m going to say your 2030 prediction is going to be a bit off.
I am amazed at the predicted timelines. I'm in automotive design and am still floored, and in my mind think 8-10 years would be a plausible timeline. Now they are talking next year.
I just want to see how a driverless car handles a snow and ice covered road here in MI while it's snowing and with traffic scattered about in a construction zone.
I know my lane keeping assist goes bonkers in snow covered roads, especially if there is construction and lanes are moved around on my 2017 vehicle.
So the technology must be drastically different than what we have on current vehicles to send these out to market next year.
I am amazed at the predicted timelines. I'm in automotive design and am still floored, and in my mind think 8-10 years would be a plausible timeline. Now they are talking next year.
I just want to see how a driverless car handles a snow and ice covered road here in MI while it's snowing and with traffic scattered about in a construction zone.
I know my lane keeping assist goes bonkers in snow covered roads, especially if there is construction and lanes are moved around on my 2017 vehicle.
So the technology must be drastically different than what we have on current vehicles to send these out to market next year.
It doesn't have to be rolled out in subarctic conditions to be rolled out at all, as there is a wide swath of the nation that barely gets any snow if at all. And a couple years ago, Ford already had autonomous cars working in city conditions in limited snow in Michigan, by using sensors and millimeter-capable GPS with accurate maps.
So YOU may not get it in Michigan, but it'll be active and in use in a lot of the southern and western states for a few years before it gets to the NE and upper midwest, at which point it'll be pretty much ready to go in bad weather, too. Yeah, I don't see widespread adoption anytime soon, but the first commercially available cars in use will be happening much sooner than a lot of people here might think, as they can be rolled out in California and Arizona and other southwestern states pretty easily in the next year or two. This is a VERY rapidly advancing tech, and as DARPA has shown, works offroad as well already...
It doesn't have to be rolled out in subarctic conditions to be rolled out at all, as there is a wide swath of the nation that barely gets any snow if at all. And a couple years ago, Ford already had autonomous cars working in city conditions in limited snow in Michigan, by using sensors and millimeter-capable GPS with accurate maps.
So YOU may not get it in Michigan, but it'll be active and in use in a lot of the southern and western states for a few years before it gets to the NE and upper midwest, at which point it'll be pretty much ready to go in bad weather, too. Yeah, I don't see widespread adoption anytime soon, but the first commercially available cars in use will be happening much sooner than a lot of people here might think, as they can be rolled out in California and Arizona and other southwestern states pretty easily in the next year or two. This is a VERY rapidly advancing tech, and as DARPA has shown, works offroad as well already...
That makes sense on the rollout. The only thing scary, and I've been in this business 26 years, is when things are pushed out in a race to be the first bad things can happen. Hopefully I'm just overthinking it.
As far as DARPA, I'm willing to say they are 20 years ahead of vehicle OEM's.
I honestly don't think we'll ever get there. Not that the technology won't be there, because it's almost there now. The issue is demand.
At any given time we have four generations of drivers on the road. Most of those on the road today won't accept fully autonomous cars, many because they don't trust the technology, but most because they simply like to drive and won't want to give it up. So we'll probably have to cycle through two generations to reach a point where we'd have a majority of drivers who would accept a fully autonomous car.
I just think that by the time that happens - and we're talking 50 years down the road - something else will come along that seems like an even better idea to most folks and will be even more efficient. By that time I could see personal vehicles banned from our largest cities, replaced by a more user-friendly mass transit system, and expanded commuter bus or rail systems running between towns. Given that the highest anticipated demand for autonomous cars would seem to be from city drivers tired of fighting traffic and those who commute to another town for work, it seems like advances such as this would put a huge dent in demand for autonomous cars.
The more user friendly transit very likely will be an autonomous vehicle in some form. There will be small vehicles to hire for personal trips, larger vehicles for groups, small shuttles with set routes and stops with which you share the cost and the decreased convenience for the cheaper fare. This will take over transportation in cities and traditional public transit will have to evolve to keep its ridership. The street infrastructure is already there so there will be all kinds of companies looking to make a buck by providing their own niche. Of course there will be a shake down and only a few concepts will survive but it’s gonna be a free for all in five years or less in some big cities.
The first driverless cars sold are on the road already in various areas. Waymo, the autonomous vehicle division of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reached an important milestone recently: since mid-October, the company has been operating its autonomous minivans on public roads in Arizona without a safety driver — or any human at all — behind the wheel. They've been used as taxis in Arizona already, and will soon be used by Avis and Lyft across the country. So I"m going to say your 2030 prediction is going to be a bit off.
BS Where do I buy a Waymo? Oh wait, I can't. Because they are not being sold. They are in development.
Also I believe the story about Waymo cars operating in Arizona without a safety driver is a scam. If you have some proof of that fact, preferably video, I would love to see it. And I don't mean highly edited promotional videos showing Waymo cars from a distance with dark tinted windows. Ask yourself this, if the cars are really driving themselves, why is there limo tinting on the windows? Wouldn't they want nice clear windows, so everybody can see that nobody is inside the car? Unless... it's a scam.
One company has already sold autonomous vehicles to bus/taxi companies and are on the road now, not in 2030. And had theri first accident, as well (got backed into by a delivery truck).
Guess you've never really thought about flying then, eh? Get on a commercial airliner and you're traveling WAY faster and being controlled by computers.
You'll get used to the idea, just like you got used to hauling around a smartphone and being connected every second of every day. Plenty of time for you to get used to the idea, it won't happen for quite awhile.
Look up in the sky at any time. How many planes do you see? Now go look at a highway like I-95 just about any time of day. Cars, trucks etc, a few feet, and often inches apart.
One company has already sold autonomous vehicles to bus/taxi companies and are on the road now, not in 2030. And had theri first accident, as well (got backed into by a delivery truck).
Point is, you may not be able to buy one as a private citizen, but private companies are buying them already. Fleet sales count.
Oh good, I'm glad you brought Las Vegas up. It's a scam. It's a scam. Those vehicles are 100% human driven shuttle busses. Here is a picture of it. The guy standing with the controller in his hand is the bus driver. Every one of these vehicles has a driver in a blue uniform on it, holding a controller. If something happens to the bus driver, that shuttle ain't going nowhere, without him. Unless another human takes control of it. In the video of the wreck you can see the bus driver in the blue uniform texting his boss to tell him he just wrecked his shuttle. It's all a scam. You are being scammed, and you are falling for it.
Last edited by Cloudy Dayz; 01-16-2018 at 05:42 PM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
it's a scam.
