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Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,550 posts, read 81,117,303 times
Reputation: 57750
Quote:
Originally Posted by John-UK
I go along with the likes of the The Economist and Seba. I advice you look at the advances in battery, supercapacitor and EV technology, and those under R&D. And also look at the vids and links I gave. Seba talks about the exponential curve and tipping point. You are projecting in a linear way.
More than 90% of adults in the USA have a cell phone, 97% of those under age 44. All of those people have experienced the loss of battery life in their phone over time, even 1 year. If there is going to be a tipping point it will be after there is a proven track record of these advanced batteries, at least 5 years with minimal loss of charge capacity, no fires, and access to charging stations. Even then people will continue to buy the gas powered SUVs and trucks for when they need them, and use the EV for their commute. There is some fear of new technology, but also range anxiety, common news reports of failures, and many enjoy driving a loud, powerful engine.
I think pushing EV right now is a folly. We're not there yet technologically. Great, there's development in the works. But people are buy cars now, and when they see that range with uncertainties in charging, the higher initial price, and all the other drawbacks, $3/gallon doesn't seem that bad. And they will remember all those drawbacks.
What we should be doing is making more hybrids. I'm thinking of getting a hybrid (plug in maybe?). If more cars went to a hybrid drivetrain, we could reduce our fossil fuel usage without drastically altering people's lifestyle.
You do not need that with an EV either, but it is there to make life easier.
Not that one again..."the overall grid would collapse due to demand."
Tony Seba goes on about "peaker" power stations, and that none will be built. Interesting....
As the above video shows, Tesla built a grid battery storage facility to eliminate building a natural gas "peaker" power station in "88 days". It is a matter of running the existing generating stations at full capacity, or near to, and storing the surplus electricity to cope with peaks. Power stations tend to be at their maximum efficiency at near to or at full electricity generation.
Companies are paid to use electricity as at times too much is being generated. This surplus can be stored not wasted.
The head of National Grid in the UK said no more generating capacity needs to be built if the country went over to all EVs in a short time period. Petroleum refining uses a massive level of electricity to produce the fuels. This generation would simply transfer over to charging EVs directly.
It has been suggested that where practicable, government buildings, including schools, should incorporate solar panels, with all new buildings having them incorporated into the design, coupled to storage batteries. Here is a school that produced 'more' electricity than what it used.
"Turning homes into mini power stations could help reduce energy bills by more than 60 per cent, according to a new report."
"The concept has already been deployed on a building in Swansea, where an ‘Active Classroom’ combines integrated photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage with solar heat collection. Saltwater batteries can power the classroom for two days, and over six months of operation the building has produced more energy than it has used."
All this can easily be implemented quite quickly and quicker than building new 'peaker' power stations. It should result in the decommissioning of fossil fuel power stations.
It is all about storage, 'buffering'. The utilities of: water, gas and sewage have done this for a few hundred years to even out distribution flow. Electricity could only buffer using water, now batteries are capable of storing enough electricity for peak grid use . The UK has a few grid battery storage facilities. The latest facility was opened in Barrow.
All well and good. Who's going to pay, and it still doesn't justify a 300% premium on the vehicle.
Many counties and cities want fossil fuel burning, of any sort, out of their locations. All they need do is legislative against fossil fuel cars then the private sector will step in to fill the gap. That is happening. The price of EVs and especially batteries is dropping, and fast.
They may not have a choice when faced with the cost of upgraded electrical infrastructure. Currently they hope the private sector can roll out technology as quickly as they would like them to, however technological progress is not linear. It plateaus over time. Looking at the last 5 years of battery price reductions and assuming that will continue at that pace just in time to meet arbitrary requirements is foolish. The raw material prices required for the infrastructure upgrades is going up, not down.
It's easy to assume at a time where less than 5% of the world's cars are electric that it will be practical to make all cars electric with no negative consequences and that prices will perpetually decline at the same rate, however educated people should know better.
That's entertaining. "electric cars are useless winter time. " #72 above. guess, that's why they are so popular in Russia with its harsh long winters. So far, no one there complained about them being uselss that way.
Anyhow. As you all KNOW, I have no doubt, China and some other developed countries of the world, is shutting down all ICE vehicles by 2030, which is only 11 years from now. And few months, yet. That said, China being the largest market in the world, have no doubt, the rest will follow.
That said, entire thread here is pretty pointless. Decisions were already made, no one will really ask about CD forum opinion what to do - or not.
Most people do not live in such places. For place like that hybrids will be the answer until full rapid chargers are at all filling stations. Look at the whole video of Tony Seba, re: technology uptakes. Wherever there is a gasoline filling station, there is no reason rapid chargers cannot be there. You can also charge up your vehicle from your house while you are asleep - electricity is everywhere. The latest EVs are getting over 300 miles range. You can also get a charge from another EV and he will charge you automatically via each others EV accounts via smart phone apps. It is all here. Try doing all that with a gasoline vehicle.
Look at the big picture.
I've always found it a bit self centered when people who live in a place where EVs are popular or even practical assume it will work for everybody. It comes off as disconnected from reality the rest of the world actually lives in.
Here's the reality, trucks and SUVs dominate the US market. Hybrids and fuel efficient cars have never been popular. Electricity is everywhere but it's slow and impractical for almost everybody. If you live in a suburb and commute downtown, sure, but if you live in an apartment downtown you're parking on the street with no outlet. If you live in a rural area, the long distances between chargers make them impractical.
I live in a suburb, have a garage with power, I have money to make it happen, and I still won't buy an EV because it'll take up a spot in my garage that's reserved for when my roof is off my Jeep.
The fastest rapid charger still takes 30 minutes or more. During holiday season interstate traffic or hurricane evacuation, there's a line for even gas that only takes 5 minutes to fill up. There is no simple "replace all gas stations with EV chargers". The technology for that does not exist.
Those EVs with a 300 mile range have a 150 mile range during winter. That 300 range battery is not cheap and you're basically lugging it around just to cure range anxiety. It's the ultimate in gluttonous waste of resources.
With disruptive technologies, the rate at first is flat then the tipping point comes. Then sales rocket. Look at the graph for colour TV sales. As Seba says, the graph is never linear, as you are projecting.
Tong Seba and the The Economist both say the tipping point is this or next year.
EVs need no servicing with only about 20 moving parts. Total cost of ownership is what matters. They will outlive fossil fuel engined cars by a wide margin. After 10 years maybe a battery set change, however by then technology and mass production will have brought the costs of batteries right down. I can see a big market in replacing drivers seats though.
If people were worried about total cost of ownership, the entire world would be driving Toyota Corollas. Don't underestimate how shallow we are.
There has been no disruptive technology. The lithium battery performs much the same way as it has for 30 years. The energy density is exponentially worse than fossil fuels, it's not cost effective to recycle, the cobalt required to built it comes from African mines that use child labor, and it tends to combust for no reason whatsoever.
You do not need that with an EV either, but it is there to make life easier.
Not that one again..."the overall grid would collapse due to demand."
Tony Seba goes on about "peaker" power stations, and that none will be built. Interesting....
As the above video shows, Tesla built a grid battery storage facility to eliminate building a natural gas "peaker" power station in "88 days". It is a matter of running the existing generating stations at full capacity, or near to, and storing the surplus electricity to cope with peaks. Power stations tend to be at their maximum efficiency at near to or at full electricity generation.
Companies are paid to use electricity as at times too much is being generated. This surplus can be stored not wasted.
The head of National Grid in the UK said no more generating capacity needs to be built if the country went over to all EVs in a short time period. Petroleum refining uses a massive level of electricity to produce the fuels. This generation would simply transfer over to charging EVs directly.
It has been suggested that where practicable, government buildings, including schools, should incorporate solar panels, with all new buildings having them incorporated into the design, coupled to storage batteries. Here is a school that produced 'more' electricity than what it used.
"Turning homes into mini power stations could help reduce energy bills by more than 60 per cent, according to a new report."
"The concept has already been deployed on a building in Swansea, where an ‘Active Classroom’ combines integrated photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage with solar heat collection. Saltwater batteries can power the classroom for two days, and over six months of operation the building has produced more energy than it has used."
All this can easily be implemented quite quickly and quicker than building new 'peaker' power stations. It should result in the decommissioning of fossil fuel power stations.
It is all about storage, 'buffering'. The utilities of: water, gas and sewage have done this for a few hundred years to even out distribution flow. Electricity could only buffer using water, now batteries are capable of storing enough electricity for peak grid use . The UK has a few grid battery storage facilities. The latest facility was opened in Barrow.
Tesla can't even make their own cars on time much less replace the entire grid's power plants.
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