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View Poll Results: What Car Company Will Go Bankrupt Next?
Ford 3 3.23%
GM 1 1.08%
FCA 26 27.96%
VW Group 1 1.08%
Daimler 3 3.23%
BMW 1 1.08%
Tesla 51 54.84%
Honda 0 0%
Nissan 2 2.15%
Toyota 1 1.08%
Mazda 2 2.15%
Volvo / Geely 5 5.38%
Other 5 5.38%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
Old 08-28-2018, 12:49 PM
 
219 posts, read 54,970 times
Reputation: 145

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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Tesla was able to raise money by selling stock using tech company valuations rather than auto company valuations. I think that is unlikely to continue. Tesla doesn't have any particularly unique intellectual property. If you don't have IP and you're not profitable, you don't survive. 10 years from now, I think they'll be a footnote as the EV pioneer that vanished.
Why don't you think they will be profitable?
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Old 08-28-2018, 01:42 PM
 
1,953 posts, read 752,771 times
Reputation: 7779
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeApelido View Post
Why don't you think they will be profitable?
It's not that I think they won't be profitable. It's that I think they will crash and burn before that point can be reached.

I live near the Tesla battery factory. Which is only to say I probably hear more from people who ACTUALLY have personal experience with the place than the average USian. I'm not pulling an "I-can-see-Russia-from-my-house" maneuver.

The problem is Elon Musk. He delegates poorly and spends more time playing around than running his company. He is constantly in the news, which is where he wants to be. He feeds on attention. He should be focusing on implementation of his "ideas" but his method of "leadership" is to showboat.

I'm all for electric cars, but the problem is the CHEAP version is 35k, batteries are expensive to replace ($10k last I heard), and he has had problems recently with batteries catching fire and setting the entire car on fire because he's been shoving stuff out the door without proper oversight or testing. These cars have little resale value - right now they may be ok because most of them are still relatively new and the batteries haven't worn out yet. But I'm certainly not in the market for a car that you essentially have to pay enough to BUY ANOTHER CAR before you can get it to run once the batteries need replacement. It's WORSE than having to replace an entire engine every few years. They've got an 8 year warranty but that warranty only kicks in if the battery stops working ENTIRELY. The capacity will deteriorate long before that. And that means less range per charge.

In the meantime I can buy 3 or 4 perfectly good used gas vehicles for just the price of a replacement battery for the Tesla.

He is all about the kluge and last-minute histrionics. He robs Peter to pay Paul. Recent example:

https://business.financialpost.com/t...uilding-sprint

He is a bad planner and apparently also fails at hiring someone to actually do all the management and hard work required to make this thing work. He is in the habit of writing checks his a$$ can't cash. Sooner or later the bubble WILL burst.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...ry-cost-2018-1

(link will throw up a nag overlay which can be removed in Firefox with the Overlay remover addon - if you still have a version of FF that will run it)

All of these obstacles CAN be overcome eventually. Musk just isn't willing to put in the hard work. He yells at his employees who are the only ones doing real work instead.

Last edited by Pyewackette; 08-28-2018 at 02:17 PM..
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Old 08-28-2018, 02:04 PM
 
1,953 posts, read 752,771 times
Reputation: 7779
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eumaois View Post
That word is a synonym for "amateur". Sounds about right with Mr. Musk. My thanks to you for mentioning a word I am not sure I had heard of previously.
Yes, but dilettante has some connotations that go beyond merely being an amateur.

An amateur is someone who does something for the love of it, rather than for money, or rather primarily for money, even if they have formal training in the field.

A dilettante is someone who DABBLES. Their efforts are superficial but they exaggerate them to make said efforts seem more serious than they are. A dilettante is more of a poseur. Someone who pretends to more competence than they actually have or are even interested in obtaining.
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Old 08-28-2018, 02:06 PM
 
Location: NY
8,992 posts, read 14,187,334 times
Reputation: 11325
Based on right now, with no cataclysmic economic events, I'd say easily Tesla. I would not guarantee it, but they sure have burned thru a lot of cash this year. Profitability is a huge challenge for them.


FCA... maybe, but something will have to ruin the car market first. Right now their earnings are thru the roof. They are out earning Ford with a smaller product portfolio and market share. Suddenly, money is not a big problem for them.... but it all hinges on Jeep.


I feel there are problems at Ford right now to be honest, and may rank them above FCA. They are throwing a ton of money at future mobility technologies which could pay off in the long run, but I think their passenger cars are a causality of these investments which are not yet giving them any return.
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Old 08-28-2018, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Pikesville, MD
2,983 posts, read 1,334,339 times
Reputation: 4552
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bailey340 View Post
With a fully electric 3 series (based on the new generation coming 2019) coming in 2020, they will be a Tesla competitor in the EV market. BMW has a much better dealer network too.

The problem other EV companies have is that Tesla set up a nationwide (well, international) network of fast charging stations that help their cars be able to be used for longer trips. Until BMW and VW group match that, the dealer network will be of minor concern. I want to see them succeed (and I really want to see the finalized version of the Porsche Taycan EV sedan) but Tesla has more than just hype going for it.


All that being said, yes, Elon is not the best CEO around, but, he has created a number of successful companies that are moving us forward in many ways and causing disruption in a number of different fields. Tesla the automotive company is still in growth mode. A LOT Of people were naysayers back in 2011 when the Model S was introduced and said Tesla wouldn't be around in 5 years. Well, 5+ years have passed and they are still growing. Has he delivered on his promises? Not on time, but mostly they've come through. The cars do exist (except for the not really profitable basic $35k Model 3). I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on unconventional thinking. I'd rather have his version of shaking up the status quo rather than what seems to be happening in politics these days... He's gotten farther in an established automotive market than Preston Tucker was allowed to do...
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Old 08-28-2018, 03:15 PM
 
219 posts, read 54,970 times
Reputation: 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyewackette View Post
It's not that I think they won't be profitable. It's that I think they will crash and burn before that point can be reached.

I live near the Tesla battery factory. Which is only to say I probably hear more from people who ACTUALLY have personal experience with the place than the average USian. I'm not pulling an "I-can-see-Russia-from-my-house" maneuver.

The problem is Elon Musk. He delegates poorly and spends more time playing around than running his company. He is constantly in the news, which is where he wants to be. He feeds on attention. He should be focusing on implementation of his "ideas" but his method of "leadership" is to showboat.

I'm all for electric cars, but the problem is the CHEAP version is 35k, batteries are expensive to replace ($10k last I heard), and he has had problems recently with batteries catching fire and setting the entire car on fire because he's been shoving stuff out the door without proper oversight or testing. These cars have little resale value - right now they may be ok because most of them are still relatively new and the batteries haven't worn out yet. But I'm certainly not in the market for a car that you essentially have to pay enough to BUY ANOTHER CAR before you can get it to run once the batteries need replacement. It's WORSE than having to replace an entire engine every few years. They've got an 8 year warranty but that warranty only kicks in if the battery stops working ENTIRELY. The capacity will deteriorate long before that. And that means less range per charge.

In the meantime I can buy 3 or 4 perfectly good used gas vehicles for just the price of a replacement battery for the Tesla.

He is all about the kluge and last-minute histrionics. He robs Peter to pay Paul. Recent example:

https://business.financialpost.com/t...uilding-sprint

He is a bad planner and apparently also fails at hiring someone to actually do all the management and hard work required to make this thing work. He is in the habit of writing checks his a$$ can't cash. Sooner or later the bubble WILL burst.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesl...ry-cost-2018-1

(link will throw up a nag overlay which can be removed in Firefox with the Overlay remover addon - if you still have a version of FF that will run it)

All of these obstacles CAN be overcome eventually. Musk just isn't willing to put in the hard work. He yells at his employees who are the only ones doing real work instead.
Interesting points. None of which point to clear reasons why Tesla can't be profitable. Saying Tesla can't be profitable because of Elon Musk is so...lame. No depth of analysis.

Side note on batteries - Tesla's old batteries in S&X seem to degrade to 85-90% of initial value and stay flat (so far at least). It is claimed that the new batteries (in Model 3) will perform even better.
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Old 08-28-2018, 03:16 PM
 
219 posts, read 54,970 times
Reputation: 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Checkered24 View Post
Based on right now, with no cataclysmic economic events, I'd say easily Tesla. I would not guarantee it, but they sure have burned thru a lot of cash this year. Profitability is a huge challenge for them.

Why do you think it's a huge challenge?
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Old 08-28-2018, 03:18 PM
 
219 posts, read 54,970 times
Reputation: 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
Tesla is not really a car company, and EV's don't sell well anyway. Other real car companies can make EV's better, and more efficiently, but people really don't want them. Tesla is a novelty/scam.

How is Tesla a scam?

How do other manufacturers make EV's more efficiently? The data so far suggests the opposite.
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Old 08-28-2018, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,890 posts, read 1,243,116 times
Reputation: 6440
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeApelido View Post
Bankrupt, or bailed out by their home government, or bought for scraps after stock crashes, you get the idea.

Make a vote, and explain why you think so.

IMO Tesla would be a bad guess, growing very rapidly with high margins, and have financial support from big spenders (including VW apparently) to value them at over 60 billion. But if stock crashes, it could happen.

I would look at ones on sketchy financial ground with sensitive demand for vehicles, or low margins. Fiat Chrysler would be a decent guess.

BMW would be a decent guess as they are smaller size with a target market being directly hit by the newcomer (Tesla) which could punish their margins.

Ford is in a general downtrend, but still hugely profitable on their trucks, but that is really their main business now, so they would be in trouble if that market were to be disrupted (ahem, Tesla pickup). If that happened it wouldn't be for 7-10 years from now though.

I guess I would go with BMW for now. In 5 years.
LMAO, BMW has been around for 102 years and will be for another 100 years. Also the largest exporter of American made cars.
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Old 08-28-2018, 03:20 PM
 
219 posts, read 54,970 times
Reputation: 145
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Tesla was able to raise money by selling stock using tech company valuations rather than auto company valuations. I think that is unlikely to continue. Tesla doesn't have any particularly unique intellectual property. If you don't have IP and you're not profitable, you don't survive. 10 years from now, I think they'll be a footnote as the EV pioneer that vanished.
Would you agree that other car manufacturers also don't have any unique / valuable IP?
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