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Old 02-22-2019, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
7,681 posts, read 5,661,689 times
Reputation: 10562

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
You're making the wrong correlations. Car ownership at the turn of the century was largely dependent on a growing middle class which was the result of many other factors. Most people didn't actually own horses. They went straight from walking to the car and skipped the horse completely.

A more appropriate analogy is the smartphone. 10 years ago few people had them now everybody has them. It's just a feature that doesn't require radically changing economic conditions and demographics. It's just a useful gadget.
I was thinking about the Horse/Car comparison...If you lived in a city or town you were unlikely to have horse unless you were rich or needed them for work (pulling a cart or whatever.) Rural folks had them because you otherwise had to walk a long ways to get anywhere.

My Grandmother remembers when her dad bought the first car. Previous to that they had to take mules and a wagon to town as a family, or individually they could ride.

Before he bought the car, he had a tractor for a solid 10 years on the farm. Combines have been self driving for about that long...
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Southern West Virginia
373 posts, read 108,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
If the car has radar and GPS, it's going to drive better in the snow than a human can. It knows exactly where it is on the road and it knows exactly where all the other cars and obstructions are. It can monitor the coefficient of friction on the road collecting data from other cars around it far better than a human. It's not like you have to invent new technology to solve the problem.
No, it’s not. How will a car be able to distinguish a white road due to dried salt, versus a road that is actually snow covered?

How will a car distinguish between leaves blowing on the road versus a tree that has fallen and blocked the road? The technology isn’t even close to that point yet. Look at that “self-driving” car that hit and killed a guy that was crossing the road on a bicycle. A person was supposed to be monitoring the car, but failed to do that, and the car wasn’t smart enough to know to hit the brakes.

So many people are misled about where this technology is at the current time. There are tons of problems that do not yet have a solution.
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:28 PM
 
7,530 posts, read 2,889,652 times
Reputation: 5083
Quote:
Originally Posted by user491 View Post
No, it’s not. How will a car be able to distinguish a white road due to dried salt, versus a road that is actually snow covered?

How will a car distinguish between leaves blowing on the road versus a tree that has fallen and blocked the road? The technology isn’t even close to that point yet. Look at that “self-driving” car that hit and killed a guy that was crossing the road on a bicycle. A person was supposed to be monitoring the car, but failed to do that, and the car wasn’t smart enough to know to hit the brakes.

So many people are misled about where this technology is at the current time. There are tons of problems that do not yet have a solution.
It’s actually further along than humans are. Lidar can see 3D even at night and in poor weather. Cameras and radar can detect objects and distance. They can see everywhere at once. Humans can only see one direction optically if they’re even bothering to pay any attention at all.
Face it: humans have proven we’re not really that good at driving and we have the fatality record to prove it.

Humans have the advantage of intelligence and only two eyes for sensors (sometimes). Judgement and driving experience is earned over time. Computers have experience and judgement immediately regardless of age. They always pay attention and are never drunk or tired or otherwise impaired. They have more sensors. Due to gps they know where the road is or should be, and they can see better than we can in several locations at once. Most human accidents are caused during good weather. Even great drivers are at a threat of terrible drivers which means we can only function at the lowest common denominator of the worst of all drivers We’re just not cut out for this sort of thing.

Last edited by Ziggy100; 02-22-2019 at 01:36 PM..
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:47 PM
 
11,664 posts, read 4,285,550 times
Reputation: 5087
Quote:
Originally Posted by user491 View Post
No, it’s not. How will a car be able to distinguish a white road due to dried salt, versus a road that is actually snow covered?

How will a car distinguish between leaves blowing on the road versus a tree that has fallen and blocked the road? The technology isn’t even close to that point yet. Look at that “self-driving” car that hit and killed a guy that was crossing the road on a bicycle. A person was supposed to be monitoring the car, but failed to do that, and the car wasn’t smart enough to know to hit the brakes.

So many people are misled about where this technology is at the current time. There are tons of problems that do not yet have a solution.
AV does not care what is on the road. It knows precisely where the road and the lanes are. And it knows what kind of traction it has.

Video or LIDAR can easily tell the difference between blowing leaves and a down tree. Utterly different images.

The Uber casualty was an unbelievable error on the part of Uber. The target was of the simplest sort and well captured. But the software ignored it. Simply a monumental screw up by Uber.

The CA accident reports make it clear that the AVs are more than 10 times safer than human drivers. That bodes very well for a large reduction in accidents and fatalities as AV is adopted.

No it will not be perfect. But it will be enough better to make it worthwhile.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:30 PM
gg
 
Location: Pittsburgh
17,407 posts, read 17,688,303 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easy62 View Post
5 reasons why autonomous cars aren't coming anytime soon
https://www.clickondetroit.com/autom...-anytime-soon_
I see several everyday in Pittsburgh.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:26 PM
 
1,847 posts, read 1,256,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user491 View Post
So many people are misled about where this technology is at the current time. There are tons of problems that do not yet have a solution.
The article lists 5 major sticky points and yet we have 'experts' here call BS on it. And then there are those who see autonomous vehicles in the snow, in the jam-packed malls, in traffic jams, in heavy rain, yeah basically everywhere there's bad weather and obstacles.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:44 PM
 
11,664 posts, read 4,285,550 times
Reputation: 5087
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stockyman View Post
The article lists 5 major sticky points and yet we have 'experts' here call BS on it. And then there are those who see autonomous vehicles in the snow, in the jam-packed malls, in traffic jams, in heavy rain, yeah basically everywhere there's bad weather and obstacles.
They are not challenged by parking lots or such or anything slow. They have excellent high density maneuverability. They also have close to infinite patience. There is substantial effort going on with respect to heavy weather and they very well may start out picking places that have little. But they will grow into the bad conditions over time. And they will eventually end up much better at inclement weather situations than humans. They simply have better and much more complete information.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:52 PM
 
1,847 posts, read 1,256,208 times
Reputation: 3114
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/rode-u...mous-vehicles/

Driverless Cars: On A Road to Nowhere - The London Publishing PartnershipThe London Publishing Partnership
This guy is more credible than any poster here.

https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsbu...t?oid=13242378
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Old 02-23-2019, 05:06 PM
 
8,397 posts, read 2,095,996 times
Reputation: 5789
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidt1 View Post
There are still too many kinks to be worked out. My estimate: 30 years. Other than some greedy long-haul trucking companies looking to cut labor cost, I don't see the point of self-driving cars.
Yes, the trucking companies are the ones who started all this, it makes sense for them and their industry, it would probably save them billions over the course of a decade.
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Old 02-23-2019, 05:16 PM
 
11,664 posts, read 4,285,550 times
Reputation: 5087
He is a writer and would be politician who specializes in railroads. Note that new railroads will no longer be rational in an AV world. He has no particular credentials. I can outpoint him on the technical end and running large engineering endeavor.

There certainly are large areas of uncertainty on the AV front. Schedule could be off by years. But I would think there are far too many different things underway for a flop. I still am of the position that trucks will be first. There may be other specialty things like slow speed limited geography implementations. Or I can see a taxi on the Las Vegas strip.

The AV in every garage is going to come later as both the technology and cost are gotten under control. And we still have the lunatic fringe like Musk trying to implement under resourced solutions.

So going to be a fun ride. Lots of blind alleys. But it ain't gonna fail.
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