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I believe however the end of the human driver will occur rather swiftly...and it will be driven by the insurance companies.
Ah here it is. How swiftly are you talking about here? I have a car that will last me at least 10 more years if there are no major accidents. When will you tell me I can't drive it anymore? And why will I listen to you?
I don't see that happening. Too many perfectly fine cars on the road that would not be suitable for upgrading. e.g. if you had really old truck that is fanatic shape mechanically but is only worth $2K you would not install modern emissions on it if it was required. You'd scrap it. Same thing would apply to retrofitting for self driving.
The Comm Package is cheap. $100+ or so add on. Basically a GPS and processor. Class of a smart phone.
I would expect to see them on bikes and pedestrians.
Ah here it is. How swiftly are you talking about here? I have a car that will last me at least 10 more years if there are no major accidents. When will you tell me I can't drive it anymore? And why will I listen to you?
Less than a decade after the AV become dominant. When will the AVs become dominant? In 5 to 15 years.
The Comm Package is cheap. $100+ or so add on. Basically a GPS and processor. Class of a smart phone.
You still need all the senors installed and the mechanics that physically manipulates the vehicle. I would expect such kits when it becomes mandatory but the market there will be for classic cars where the value and desire of the vehicle is high.
You still need all the senors installed and the mechanics that physically manipulates the vehicle. I would expect such kits when it becomes mandatory but the market there will be for classic cars where the value and desire of the vehicle is high.
Why?
Simply a locator beacon with direction vectors. I see no reason why anything else is needed. Max might be to warn of an impending collision but that is about it. May give data like slow down for the next light. Or define the order at a four way stop.
All advisory stuff. No direct ties to the mechanism.
When the first one hits something/someone, watch the scumbag lawyers have a field day.
I suppose you think the "scumbag lawyers" should just allow accidents and mayhem to happen all around this country and just do nothing huh? Because you probably think lawsuits are worse than death and serious injuries? Pretty twisted thinking, but some people do it.
Last edited by markg91359; 02-10-2019 at 07:18 AM..
I've spoken out against self driving cars in the past but really I think someday they will be a wonderful thing. My problem with them is how aggressively their proponents want to implement their ubiquitous usage on us. We've got people saying that between 5-10 years not only will they be commonplace, but you won't even be allowed to drive your old car anymore. You'll either have to purchase an extremely expensive self driving car, or, as some suggest, you won't even be able to own one and you'll be forced to ride share. (But it will be great we promise!)
I don't think the technology will be ready for such a drastic changeover in such a short amount of time and even on the off chance that the tech is ready, society won't be. I know, I know, muh horse and buggy, but this is not the same thing. Not everyone is going to want this ride sharing autonomous vehicle utopia and for people who don't live in large cities it won't even be practical. And no, you won't be able to force everyone to abandon the countryside and move to your urban paradise. There are people who will literally fight and kill/die before allowing themselves to be forced to do that. It's simply not a lifestyle for everyone.
This sums up my view. I think the potential for AV is large. There are all kinds of people like the elderly who could benefit from a car that could drive for them. Many people in business would like to just in the back of their car and work during long trips. The potential for cutting fatalities and serious injuries is large.
What I disagree with is that too much leeway is being given to private interests to develop this technology. Such technology should be carefully overseen and tightly regulated. Unfortunately, there are cities and states literally bending over backwards to get these companies testing AV on their streets. The technology should never be commercially available until there are statistics showing that it is perhaps twice as safe as driving your own car. Private interests will inevitably try to distort safety statistics to make a buck. Once the genie out of the bottle I don't know how it can be put back in. The trick is to let the genie out slowly and only after it proves itself a little at a time.
No discussion is taking place about critical issues. What are we going to do with the two million people who are employed as long haul truck drivers, short haul truck drivers, and cab drivers in the USA when this technology begins to replace their jobs?
My concern is not that this is happening, but its happening too quickly with too little discussion.
Last edited by markg91359; 02-10-2019 at 08:11 AM..
I wonder if autonomous cars have a fail-safe and shut down automatically when it starts snowing. Has anyone seen one in the snowy states yet or is it still only in extremely safe warm terrains like Arizona and California? Maybe they will eventually only be allowed where there's mild weather all year round.
Less than a decade after the AV become dominant. When will the AVs become dominant? In 5 to 15 years.
I think it will be more phased than that. The first thing will be banning humans from HOV lanes. With computers, you can run everything bumper-to-bumper at 65 mph and push all the autonomous cars through. As soon as you inject one human, you can't do that. Eventually, you'll have more and more lanes dedicated to autonomous vehicles. If you want to drive yourself, you're banished to the right lane in stop & go. It doesn't take many months of that before every commuter on the planet either buys an autonomous vehicle or they install the retrofit kit.
In rural places, who cares? If someone wants to drive a 30-year-old pickup or a 911, it's not a menace. There will eventually be some kind of transponder requirement just like on airplanes but I think it will be a very long time before you can't drive your own car in less congested circumstances.
I can imagine a time 10 years from now where all new cars are required to be built with computer-initiated emergency braking where there's a cellular modem and the network can command the car to do an emergency brake. You'll have to do that to make human-driven cars co-exist with the network of self-driving cars that all talk to each other.
I guess part of what I'm saying is that I don't think cars will be "autonomous". That implies that they make all their own decisions. Rather, I think that computer-driven cars will communicate with each other and will have a more centralized control, at least in highly congested urban places. Your speed, route, and separation will all be at least negotiated with all the cars on the road around you and probably under more centralized control. Today, some cities have traffic metering lights at on-ramps. I can foresee a much more sophisticated version of that to prevent traffic jams. It could solve the perpetual traffic jam problem.
I wonder if autonomous cars have a fail-safe and shut down automatically when it starts snowing. Has anyone seen one in the snowy states yet or is it still only in extremely safe warm terrains like Arizona and California? Maybe they will eventually only be allowed where there's mild weather all year round.
If the car has radar and GPS, it's going to drive better in the snow than a human can. It knows exactly where it is on the road and it knows exactly where all the other cars and obstructions are. It can monitor the coefficient of friction on the road collecting data from other cars around it far better than a human. It's not like you have to invent new technology to solve the problem.
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