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Then will the automakers build the electric generation plants, and infrastructure needed to fuel EV's?
If utilities can make money, they'll build.
It's not going to happen that fast.
IMO, it'll be like weed eaters. They used to all run on gas or had cords.
Then they introduced cordless ones. I was an early adopter... once I tried it I never went back.
Push a button and it went. Maintenance free, no fuss.
So it will go with cars. Once the price, range and charging is right, people will try them and never go back.
That time is not now. They're too expensive... without incentives, sales collapse.
one more thing to consider, infrastructure. it took us over one hundred years to get where we are now. d you really think that someone is going to snap their fingers and suddenly have the necessary infrastructure available to run thismassive fleet of electric cars you seem to envision OP?
sorry it wont happen. to get where we are now with EVs, it will take another one hundred years to get there, unless of course you want to try and force businesses to spend the trillions of dollars needed to suddenly build the necessary infrastructure to handle the EV fleet you envision.
and that means no only high level charging stations, and battery exchange stations, but all the necessary power plants and major improvements in the electrical grid to handle all the new amounts of power running through the lines to handle the massive increase in electrical loads at all time of the day.
You make several good points. Gasoline may still be around in hybrid vehicles, while vehicles needing real power will use diesel. Hydrogen doesn't seem to be taking off perhaps because people are tired of the squeeze that gasoline producers have put on us.
Manhattan has just adopted a congestion toll if you drive south of 60th street. If other major cities follow suit, just having a car in a large metropolitan area will become a luxury. As it is parking for the day in Manhattan is sixty bucks.
You make several good points. Gasoline may still be around in hybrid vehicles, while vehicles needing real power will use diesel. Hydrogen doesn't seem to be taking off perhaps because people are tired of the squeeze that gasoline producers have put on us.
hydrogen has its issues, mostly in creating it in large quantities, and transporting it. right now making hydrogen fuel is done using natural gas. and you really cant transport hydrogen through pipelines like you can other fuels, even natural gas has transportation issues. storage is another issue with hydrogen.
and of course there are people like me that would make their own fuel, ethanol or bio diesel or even SVO, to fuel their ICE powered vehicles if gasoline and diesel got real scarce. but by that time pretty much all the kinks will have been worked out of electric cars, and it will be like your current gas powered cars for your daily commute.
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Manhattan has just adopted a congestion toll if you drive south of 60th street. If other major cities follow suit, just having a car in a large metropolitan area will become a luxury. As it is parking for the day in Manhattan is sixty bucks.
and his is why i prefer smaller cities, like the one i live in now, or small towns, like luray VA and others.
i still use VHS and cassette tapes as well as a landline. and many people i know also use these things. i also still have eight track tapes as well.
as for your assessment that half the population will bedriving electric cars in twenty years, not very likely considering the low sales volume compared to fossil fuel powered cars, in fact i pointed that out in an earlier post. sorry but with a mere 361,000 cars sold per year, you are not going to get 50% of the US population to be driving electric cars in twenty years, considering that fossil fuel powered cars are being sold in the US ALONE at the rate of 17.5 MILLION PER YEAR.
No offense, but the "many people you know" is an anecdote and not statistics. I'm talking about VHS/Cassette & 8 Track. Just because I know a lot of people that go horseback riding doesn't mean our roads are filled with people commuting on horses to work. The fact that you bring up VHS/Cassette/8Track....I don't even want to get into it. Many could be a lot of your old time friends, but most people do not use these. And yes I have a couple cassettes and a VHS sitting in my house. I don't ever use them.
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you mean building new power plants, running all new lines, building new relay stations, as well as all the rest of the infrastructure necessary? and how much do you think this will cost? answer=in the several TRILLION dollar range. sorry but government and business does NOT have the necessary capital to unload that vast amount of money on one infrastructure project to the detriment of ALL other projects. they MIGHT be able to do it in as little as fifty years, perhaps, but compromises will have to be made, and environmental laws will have to be radically changed to make that happen.
If the demand is there it could be built up. The market dictates what can happen, not a "not possible" mentality.
actually the first cars were built in 1886 simultaneously by carl benz and the team of gottlieb diamler and wilhelm maybach. benz got to the patent office first though so he is credited with building the first viable automobile. but europe was starting to mass produce cars in the 1890s. granted not as fast as henry ford ultimately did, but they were building them in factories before the US started building viable cars, like the duryea.
and here is a reality check for you, henry ford didnt create the assembly line that we know today until 1913. i will also note that at that time there were still three different power systems competing for dominance in the car market, gasoline, steam power, and electric power. as we know gasoline power won out, but that really didnt happen until around 1925, as steam power was still viable to that point.
and at that point we really didnt have the roads we do today either. people rarely traveled between cities in their shiny new cars because while the cities had gas stations, there were not many out in the country between the cities, that took time. and dont forget that the road system wasnt built in a day either, that also took lots of time to build. in fact we are still building roads today. the modern highway system wasnt built until the early 70s as we know it today. yes they started building the interstate system in the mid 50s, but back then road construction was not as efficient as it is today.
Ok, i'm not sure if you're arguing against yourself at this point. Mass production didn't start in 1886. The U.S. started mass production, as you said in 1913. In your previous post you said it took us 100 years, which it did not. The infrastructure we have in place for gasoline cars happened in ~50 years. Yes major improvements have occurred since the 60s/70s but it was in place.
The fact is, and this is important--- the roads are there, the manufacturing plants are there, the technology is there. Obviously, the main difference between a gasoline car and an EV is the powertrain. The Automotive industry and the world has perfected, more or less, the craft of building cars, the roads and highways, and the servicing of vehicles, etc. People who take 20 minutes to learn, also can fully grasp how to use and charge an EV. The driving part of it is really no different.
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add to that the necessary refinery capacity, the necessary fuel transportation systems, etc. so yes it DID take over 100 years to get where we are today. i will grant that building refineries and roads wont be necessary, so that will take time off the change over, but builing new power plants to handle the demands for electricity, building basically an all new electrical grid to handle the increased demands for electricity, building al the necessary charging stations, setting up how to purchase electricity from those charging stations, setting up battery exchange shops, and all the other necessary bits to properly run electric cars will take both time and money. and lots of both.
Scale. That's what you're saying? We had the infrastructure in half the time! It did not take 100yrs! The infrastructure GREW as demand GREW. Yes more refinery capacity, better more efficient ways to do things and the industry evolved from the mid 60s/70s to today as cars evolved, i.e. catalytic converters, emissions testing, Just-in-time production, labor, plants, distribution, etc.
But the system was in place.
As for EVs, The system is in place and/or getting there for the 300k or so people who drive EVs, otherwise they wouldn't be able to drive them. Obviously they can drive them.
There are companies that manufacture, sell/distribute, and repair EVs, there are public stations, there are companies that sell/install home chargers, there is a grid in place to support the current drivers. There are roads. You said that yourself.
The gasoline vehicle industry started from scratch and it did not take 100 years.
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sure we can trade one for the other to a point, for example spend a ton more money and we can cut the amount of time needed to build the infrastructure by 10% or so, or spend more time and save some money.
but until some huge changes in electric vehicles are made, you are not going to stop in at your local electron station and say fill it up and be out in 10 minutes or so. more like 2 hours at best. and that means that your local electron station will have to be huge in order to handle the number of car charging up everyday. and by huge i mean instead of your local exon station with say 9 double sided pumps sitting on a half acre of land, you are going to need more like 30 double sided charging stations with the complex sitting on 3-4 acres of land.
Additionally more and more shopping centers and workplaces are installing charging stations. It doesn't have to be at a centralized station anymore like your gas station used to be.
Even if sales took off, we can't physically make enough cars in the next 30 years to replace half the fleet, as I just mentioned. There are 200 million+ cars in the US alone. At current automotive production levels, it would take 50 years to replace all of those cars.
There were 17million cars sold in the US last year. If theoretically all vehicle sales were instantly 100% EV, the manufacturing capacity is already there to build 200million cars in a 10-15 year.
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Originally Posted by ZeApelido
On this side, I find it hilarious about the judgments coming from some who haven't even experienced EV driving. Like literally the only thing that matters is recharge rate on long-distance trips (definitely a weakness) and that's it!
Like, if the world had EV cars first and ICE was a new technology, they would be laughed away except for the long-distance commuting crowd. More noise, slow, sluggish response, worse driving dynamics? Eww. Oh wait its pollutes the air, and I have to stop at a gas station every week to fill it up?
How archaic.
Thank you!
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Originally Posted by southernnaturelover
Battery degradation is one of my biggest concerns with EVs. Heat kills lithium ion batteries, and where I live its pretty much impossible to avoid. If you use your EV to drive to work it’s going to be sitting in a hot parking lot all day long where temps can get up to 110 degrees. Another battery killer is ‘deep discharges’, which again, if you do a lot of driving it’ll be pretty hard to avoid that.
That’s not acceptable to me. Imagine buying a ICE powered car being told that your range on a full tank could be reduced by 30% at 100k miles.
Used to be that engines didn't last that far past 100k before needing an overhaul or replacement. And this was after being in mass production for more than 50 years as our main source of transportation.
Additionally more and more shopping centers and workplaces are installing charging stations. It doesn't have to be at a centralized station anymore like your gas station used to be.
That’s all you do is commute to work and go back home? You never go anywhere else?
I observe a lot of people’s behavior. I see a lot of people leaving work to go eat on their lunch breaks. After work many are only home for an hour or so and then they leave again to go run errands or go to their kid’s football practice or whatever. I see some people come and go five times in one evening, so not much time for recharging there.
As far as charging stations at shopping centers, I have never seen that (other than a Tesla supercharger station at a mall). I also don’t know of anyone that has a charging spot where they work.
Used to be that engines didn't last that far past 100k before needing an overhaul or replacement. And this was after being in mass production for more than 50 years as our main source of transportation.
So you’re saying it may take 50 years before we have batteries that don’t degrade in the heat?
That’s all you do is commute to work and go back home? You never go anywhere else?
I observe a lot of people’s behavior. I see a lot of people leaving work to go eat on their lunch breaks. After work many are only home for an hour or so and then they leave again to go run errands or go to their kid’s football practice or whatever. I see some people come and go five times in one evening, so not much time for recharging there.
As far as charging stations at shopping centers, I have never seen that (other than a Tesla supercharger station at a mall). I also don’t know of anyone that has a charging spot where they work.
Ok. If the largest average daily commute in that link I gave you was 13 miles (round trip then of 26 miles), is football practice 100 miles away? It's probably in the same city or neighborhood you live in.
Let's put it another way, average yearly mileage on a car is 12,000 miles, or 16,550 for a male according to this https://www.carinsurance.com/Article...-by-state.aspx
If everyone drove electric cars, how would you be creating all that new electricity that is very in-demand now? How are all those batteries created?
You need to answer that question first before you pat yourself on the back as being green.
Solar power which is becoming more and more advanced.
And batteries and the manufacturing process for batteries is becoming more and more advanced and more and more efficient.
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