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Originally Posted by k350
And?
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And what? Is this supposed to be a meaningful refrain?
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Originally Posted by k350
How do you figure ANWR has even close to the amount of oil we need at our current consumption rate?
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I don't usually respond to demands that I substantiate arguments I never made. But in this case, I'll make an exception: ANWR is one piece of the puzzle. Your same response is given about
every potential drilling project in this nation that has been stifled. Well gosh, put them all together and maybe we can actually get somewhere.
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Originally Posted by k350
Also, why do you think anyone would want to spend billions to pump oil to drive prices down and make less of a profit? Everyone is making record or near record levels, why would they care to stop doing that? Oil companies are for profit organizations, shareholders demand that they maximize profit, not invest in driving it down.
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Because profit margins isn't the driving factor in large-scale business. Revenue growth is. Let me ask you this: would you rather make a 7% profit margin or a 20% profit margin? Now, allow me to re-frame the question: would you rather make a 7% margin on revenues of $100,000,000 or a 20% margin on revenues of $100,000?
Do the math. You grow a business by increasing your revenues, not by chasing a profit margin. You increase your revenues by increasing the supply of your product. If businesses were only interested in protecting static profit margins, nobody would ever bother reinvesting in the growth of a business. If restricting supply as a means of boosting margins were the end game of the oil industry, no oil company would have ever increased supply, and oil certainly wouldn't be the cyclical industry that it is.
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Originally Posted by k350
Biofuels are a joke, what biofuels are we importing? considering no new diesels can even run anything over b5 without voiding the facotry warranty makes it null and void. We through a huge tarriff on ethanol imports for protectionism reasons.
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First, let me state, yet again, that I never said anything about importing ethanol. So please, stop trying to deflect an argument I didn't even make, because it wastes both my time and yours. 'Kay? Thanks.
Second, you strike me as a pretty intelligent person, so please don't try to play ignorant with me. I suspect you know damn well that an infinitesimal amount of diesel consumed in this country is done so by passenger vehicles restricted to B5 and that most diesel machines in use here can operate on much higher blends than B5. I'll grant that very little diesel consumed here is biodiesel. But some is. And we import palm-oil-based biodiesel from South America to meet much of that demand. That's a fact. Get comfortable with it, because the policies you advocate will strengthen the demand for it and there's a hell of a lot of diesel machinery out there that can burn it, even though it appears that consumption/production of biofuels is a policy you do not advocate.
But at least we can agree on one thing: Biofuels, for the most part,
are a joke. I just wish you'd stop advocating policies that make biofuels more attractive to idiot populists and the idiots they enchant.
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Originally Posted by k350
Yes, the tech to drill does make a small foot print, but the foot print made by everything else is huge, I have been on a few projects for BP in Azerbijian, I have seen the "small footprint" made by exploration.
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Ah yes, Azerbijian [sic], that well-known steward of sound environmental policy. You've been there and therefore you know how exploration will be conducted in coastal Alaska.
The fact remains that drilling versus preserving ANWR is nothing close to the either/or proposition that so many envirotards make it out to be. We can preserve 99% of the Alaskan wilderness
and drill for oil there. Like I said... balance.
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Originally Posted by k350
And again, us drilling oil is not going to drive prices down, the only way prices will get driven down is if there is an excess world supply, which i bet the oil companies, both private and national, will do there best to prevent.
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I don't know what "excess world supply" even means, because it's an economically meaningless term. There has never been an "excess world supply" of oil because the world has always consumed or intends to consume every drop of oil that has ever been produced. Otherwise nobody would have ever bothered to increase supply.
And yeah, oil companies are doing their best to prevent the creation of "excess world supply" which is why they're begging to be allowed to drill in places like, say, ANWR, the Gulf coast, and coastal California.
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Originally Posted by k350
If we pump out 5%, then someone is going to reduce by 5%, thus keeping world supply levels the same.
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This analysis ignores the fact that the oil industry has been volatile and cyclical more or less since its inception. If the industry had any idea how to keep prices high by keeping supply levels the same (presumably, artificially low), they would have done so.
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Originally Posted by k350
The ANWR argument would come into play if there was a physical shortage, but there isn't, it is an artificial one with a combination fo other effects like the dollar and specualtion which is driving prices up.
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Tell me, how else do you alleviate a so-called "artificial" shortage but to put more of the real thing on the market, or at least credibly threaten to do so?
And as for oil speculators, what the hell do you think they base their judgments on? A crystal ball? No. They research supply and demand signals, lest you think they're willing to lose their fortunes for sport. And lets face it: have they generally been wrong over the last, oh, say, 50 years?
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Originally Posted by k350
Plus, there is always the danger of countries doing something drastic, could you imagine investing billions ine xploration then having OPEC flood the market in return? Oil companies would lose billions in the process.
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Wait a minute -- didn't you just tell me a few sentences ago that bringing more production online here would be met by a
reduction in production elsewhere? Make up your mind, dude. Will increased investment in production
increase or
decrease production from other sources? And tell me, don't we
want OPEC to flood the market and bring some relief?
At any rate, oil companies already know how to hedge themselves against this contingency. It's called retained earnings -- the same thing Dick (aptly named) Durbin recently pilloried oil companies for doing in recent kangaroo hearings in the Senate.
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Originally Posted by k350
We can not be oil indepednent with our current consumption, it is impossible to do.
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No, but as the third-largest oil-producing nation in the world with the capacity to produce even more if Washington would allow us, we certainly do have the ability to affect oil prices.
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Originally Posted by k350
Oil companies are not going to pump oil here and magically give it to us at a reduced rate, if that was the case then Alaska should have the cheapest fuel around. Point is all oil, even ours, is sold at global prices, it was only up till 2000 or so that we stopped, by gov order, from exporting oil to Japan from Alaska.
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Yes, the oil we produce is sold on a global market at the global rate. I'm not one of those rubes who believes we will ever return to oil independence. So long as the world is an oil economy and ours is an energy-intensive economy, we will be net oil importers. So be it.
Nonetheless, we
do have the ability to affect oil prices by increasing our output of oil. And as the world's third-largest producer of oil with an abundance of proven reserves, we should impress upon our elected officials to do so
now.