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Sorry, but I have to weigh in here. Im an airline consultant by trade and I feel like I want to set the record straight on a few things.
1) Cincinnati will probably not see a flight to Asia in our lifetime. The market is very small to Asia and there is no substantial hub to back it up. Ditto for Memphis, KC, St. Louis, New Orleans, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc. Of those St. Louis is most likely to make a flight to Europe work, but its pushing it. Cincinnati used to have many flights to Europe because of the Delta hub, but one flight to Europe is all they can really support. Forget flights to Asia or the Gulf.
2) The hubs themselves have a symbiotic relationship with their cities. The hubs are where they are because the cities they reside are, themselves, have large amounts of international O&D traffic. A city like Atlanta or Dallas generates about 5-6x international O&D (meaning passengers that are destined for that city, no connections counted) than a city like Cleveland, Cincinnati, or KC. Thats why those cities support hubs and the others dont. Even Detroit and Minneapolis generate 3-4x the international traffic of said cities.
3) You need one of two (but ideally both) things to support a long haul flight:
-Enough passengers to fill the plane on O&D alone.
-A large hub to fill the plane based off of connections.
Honestly, a city like Memphis or Kansas City has neither to anywhere. Memphis used to, but not since DL downsized.
4) People seem to think that their cities are capable of more than what they are. I see it all the time. On another site that Im active on (airliners.net), there was a huge discussion of why Cleveland doesnt have a flight to Europe. Simple answer is that it cant really support it on its own. Cincinnati cant really either, but they still have a decent sized hub to help fill the plane. Plus Cleveland is not far from Detroit which has a niced sized international portfolio. The closest city to Cincinnati that has a flight overseas is Atlanta. Not exactly driving distance. That said, the market still isnt that big.
5) The best way to gage how international a city is based on air traffic is to combine the following factors:
-Total international passengers
-Total international destinations
-Total number of foreign flag carriers
-Distance from other international airports (the further the distance, the less internation it could make the actual airport. If they have they option, many people will drive from one city to another for the airport. If two international cities/airports are within 300 miles or so of each other, that shows that the pull is coming more from the city and less from the region making the city more international).
^^So your saying a city like Birmingham chances of getting a flight from here to Germany are slim to none?
The reason I ask is because the city is trying to negotiate with Bremen, Germany for a flight between the two cities. Bremen is home to Airbus and a major supplier to Mercedes Benz. Both have their NA plants in the state.
^^So your saying a city like Birmingham chances of getting a flight from here to Germany are slim to none?
The reason I ask is because the city is trying to negotiate with Bremen, Germany for a flight between the two cities. Bremen is home to Airbus and a major supplier to Mercedes Benz. Both have their NA plants in the state.
If the city puts the flight on subsidy, then any flight can happen. Bremen doesnt even have a flight to London, so no I dont think Birmingham would work.
Im aware of the BHM-STR traffic. Birmingham is actually one of the top 5 markets to Suttgart in North America (after New York, Toronto, and Miami). That said, its still only about 30 people a day. This market is captured through Atlanta which also can fill the flight with many other markets which the hub serves. Birmingham cant fill a flight to Germany (or even all of Europe) by itself. It need something else (like feeder flights) which it doesnt have.
For that reason, I would not see a flight between Birmingham and Germany profitable unless there is a subsidy involved.
Sorry, but I have to weigh in here. Im an airline consultant by trade and I feel like I want to set the record straight on a few things.
1) Cincinnati will probably not see a flight to Asia in our lifetime. The market is very small to Asia and there is no substantial hub to back it up. Ditto for Memphis, KC, St. Louis, New Orleans, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc. Of those St. Louis is most likely to make a flight to Europe work, but its pushing it. Cincinnati used to have many flights to Europe because of the Delta hub, but one flight to Europe is all they can really support. Forget flights to Asia or the Gulf.
2) The hubs themselves have a symbiotic relationship with their cities. The hubs are where they are because the cities they reside are, themselves, have large amounts of international O&D traffic. A city like Atlanta or Dallas generates about 5-6x international O&D (meaning passengers that are destined for that city, no connections counted) than a city like Cleveland, Cincinnati, or KC. Thats why those cities support hubs and the others dont. Even Detroit and Minneapolis generate 3-4x the international traffic of said cities.
3) You need one of two (but ideally both) things to support a long haul flight:
-Enough passengers to fill the plane on O&D alone.
-A large hub to fill the plane based off of connections.
Honestly, a city like Memphis or Kansas City has neither to anywhere. Memphis used to, but not since DL downsized.
4) People seem to think that their cities are capable of more than what they are. I see it all the time. On another site that Im active on (airliners.net), there was a huge discussion of why Cleveland doesnt have a flight to Europe. Simple answer is that it cant really support it on its own. Cincinnati cant really either, but they still have a decent sized hub to help fill the plane. Plus Cleveland is not far from Detroit which has a niced sized international portfolio. The closest city to Cincinnati that has a flight overseas is Atlanta. Not exactly driving distance. That said, the market still isnt that big.
5) The best way to gage how international a city is based on air traffic is to combine the following factors:
-Total international passengers
-Total international destinations
-Total number of foreign flag carriers
-Distance from other international airports (the further the distance, the less internation it could make the actual airport. If they have they option, many people will drive from one city to another for the airport. If two international cities/airports are within 300 miles or so of each other, that shows that the pull is coming more from the city and less from the region making the city more international).
My two cents....
interesting perspective. But my thinking (and apparently Boyd concurs) regarding Cincinnati is not only in regards to the city itself but to the surrounding area. Right now, if someone from Louisville, Lexington, Dayton, Columbus is traveling to Asia or Europe, they'd probably connect through Chicago, NY, or SF/La, have a layover...and arrive in their destination significantly more exhausted than if they could drive two hours to Cincinnat for a direct flight.
The population within 2-3 hour drive on Cincinnati is huge, more than enough I'd think to support international travel.
Within just 100 or so miles you have four million person metros in Lousiville, Coulmbus, Indianapolis and Dayton....I'd estimate nearly 10 million people, more than Sweden. much easier to drive from Louisville to Cincinnati for a direct flight to Europe than having to fly to a domestic hub, layover, immigration...etc.
my guess is some airline will give it a shot and see if they can bleed the hubs of such passengers. time will tell.
interesting perspective. But my thinking (and apparently Boyd concurs) regarding Cincinnati is not only in regards to the city itself but to the surrounding area. Right now, if someone from Louisville, Lexington, Dayton, Columbus is traveling to Asia or Europe, they'd probably connect through Chicago, NY, or SF/La, have a layover...and arrive in their destination significantly more exhausted than if they could drive two hours to Cincinnat for a direct flight.
The population within 2-3 hour drive on Cincinnati is huge, more than enough I'd think to support international travel.
Within just 100 or so miles you have four million person metros in Lousiville, Coulmbus, Indianapolis and Dayton....I'd estimate nearly 10 million people, more than Sweden. much easier to drive from Louisville to Cincinnati for a direct flight to Europe than having to fly to a domestic hub, layover, immigration...etc.
my guess is some airline will give it a shot and see if they can bleed the hubs of such passengers. time will tell.
Can you reference where Boyd specifically references Cincinnati and flights to Asia? Cincinnati already has a flight to Europe.
I cannot imagine a credible aviation analyst saying that Cincinnati or anywhere in the region could support passenger service to Asia. The area has few business ties and no ethnic ties.
he only mentioned increased international flights to Cincinnati, didn't specify Asia. Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky may not be major centers of Asian population but there are now more than 400,000 Asians in the three states and growing very fast. Amd universities such as Ohio State and Indiana have huge Asian student populations. There are some 250 Universities within driving distance of Cincinnati and many of them surely have a large Asian student population, University of Kentucky, Miami University, U. Of Cincinnati.
And the economy of the area is globalizing like everywhere else. P&G is arguably one of the most global companies in the world. Asian investors are increasingly looking to invest in the industrial heartland. Maybe the region couldn't support a daily flight yet, but I'd think 2/3 times a week is certainly possible.
3) You need one of two (but ideally both) things to support a long haul flight:
-Enough passengers to fill the plane on O&D alone.
-A large hub to fill the plane based off of connections.
Honestly, a city like Memphis or Kansas City has neither to anywhere. Memphis used to, but not since DL downsized.
5) The best way to gage how international a city is based on air traffic is to combine the following factors:
-Total international passengers
-Total international destinations
-Total number of foreign flag carriers
-Distance from other international airports (the further the distance, the less internation it could make the actual airport. If they have they option, many people will drive from one city to another for the airport. If two international cities/airports are within 300 miles or so of each other, that shows that the pull is coming more from the city and less from the region making the city more international).
The available seat miles or ASM (by foreign carriers) is a good statistic. For instance Qantas will begin Airbus 380 non stop both ways from Sydney to Dallas. This is the world's longest commercial flight using an airframe with one of the highest seat counts.
So (484 seats) * (8,580 miles one way) = 4,152,720 ASM * ( 240 one way trips)= 996,652,800 or almost a billion seat miles.
Looking at ASM (in millions) CY2013 for foreign carriers originating in the following airports:
JFK 43,233
LAX 42,246
MIA 13,685
ORD 13,611
EWR 6,915
IAH 6,196
BOS 5,370
LAS 4,395
ATL 3,375
DFW 3,486
SFO 2,848
DEN 1,376
SEA 711
BWI 288
New Orleans 27
Kansas City 15
Indianapolis 14
Cincinnati 11
Memphis 0
Destination and origin would normally be almost identical. DFW had 3,766 for destination because in the past year the Qantas long haul flights flew into DFW, and stopped for fuel in LAX on return. That will end next week.
By this standard we see that JFK and LAX are the clear leaders for long haul foreign carrier flights with about 42-44 billion ASM's for either origin or destination.
BWI is served by the following International Carriers
Air Canada Express - Toronto-Pearson
British Airways - London-Heathrow
Condor: Seasonal: Frankfurt
Bahamasair: Seasonal: Freeport
BA usually flies (189 seat)*(3620 miles)*(365 dats) = 249.7 million ASMs
Being an Emirates destination really bumps up your ASM by a foreign carrier. The flights are long and the planes have a lot of seats.
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Houston
Los Angeles
New York (JFK)
San Francisco
Seattle
Toronto
Buenos Aires
Rio de Janeiro
Last edited by PacoMartin; 09-19-2014 at 08:17 PM..
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