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Would it be good for consumers worldwide as a whole for this duopoly to be broken and give them a bit of competition? Planes haven't really advanced in speed all that much since, what the 80s? Sure, it is a lot safer to fly these days but there really doesn't seem to be a catalyst for improvement anymore?
What are the chances of Bombardier and Embraer cracking the large airplanes market as they are pretty much the only ones with any airplane experience? How about up and coming companies like Mitsubishi, COMAC (China) and Russian plane companies?
yes, the duopoly can be broken, all it takes is an aircraft at least the equal of airbus or boeing, and at less cost. build a 787 or a380 style aircraft and sell it for 20% less, and the airlines will probably beat a path to your door.
The Russians unsuccessfully marketed the TU-204 (aka the 757-ski); the quality of the build, or at least the perception, was a problem for Western interests. In fact, only Russian and former Soviet bloc operators ever bought the aircraft. As rbohm indicated, it MUST be the equal of Boeing or Airbus in build quality.
The Russians unsuccessfully marketed the TU-204 (aka the 757-ski); the quality of the build, or at least the perception, was a problem for Western interests. In fact, only Russian and former Soviet bloc operators ever bought the aircraft. As rbohm indicated, it MUST be the equal of Boeing or Airbus in build quality.
and not just build quality either. it does no good if the aircraft doesnt match the performance of the airbus or boeing aircraft.
Im starting to think the aviation industry is also very protectionist as well at least on national levels? It looks like this is one of the last industries East Asian has yet to make a foray into properly and the West would likely to keep it that way?
If China and Japan ever developed into serious contenders, I could see at best them dominating the Asian market..Japan may snatch a bit of market share in the USA. Sukhoi and Embraer could possibly dominate third world markets IF their products were nearly there and prices significantly cheaper (at least 10%).
Boeing and Airbus would still likely dominate the developed and mature markets of Europe, Australia, USA, Canada and NZ.
Would it be good for consumers worldwide as a whole for this duopoly to be broken and give them a bit of competition? Planes haven't really advanced in speed all that much since, what the 80s? Sure, it is a lot safer to fly these days but there really doesn't seem to be a catalyst for improvement anymore?
What are the chances of Bombardier and Embraer cracking the large airplanes market as they are pretty much the only ones with any airplane experience? How about up and coming companies like Mitsubishi, COMAC (China) and Russian plane companies?
Others answered most of this, but aircraft in the 60s and 70s (747 and Concorde for example) were faster than later aircraft, so speed has regressed.
The capital that would need to be invested to compete with Boeing and Airbus is the reason the industry remains a duopoly. Literally, billions of dollars would have to be invested in research, development, and production facilities before a single dollar would be earned.
The only reason that Airbus was able to reach the level it did and compete with Boeing is because governments in Europe determined that success in the aerospace industry was vital to their economic future. Airbus has been subsidized in ways that Boeing never was and never will be. A competing company would need at least the same amount of subsidies and benefits. Also, because the market for commercial airliners is international, any corporation entering this market would have to be prepared to locate facilities in multiple nations.
The point is that development of passenger aircraft is an extremely expensive proposition. Whatever new aircraft models are developed will be obsolete some time within 10-20 years after their first appearance in the market. Its a limited time to earn profits and much of that profit must be reinvested in research and development to stay in the race.
My bet is Boeing and Airbus will not see much in the way of competition for years to come for heavy metal aircraft.
Im starting to think the aviation industry is also very protectionist as well at least on national levels? It looks like this is one of the last industries East Asian has yet to make a foray into properly and the West would likely to keep it that way?
If China and Japan ever developed into serious contenders, I could see at best them dominating the Asian market..Japan may snatch a bit of market share in the USA. Sukhoi and Embraer could possibly dominate third world markets IF their products were nearly there and prices significantly cheaper (at least 10%).
Boeing and Airbus would still likely dominate the developed and mature markets of Europe, Australia, USA, Canada and NZ.
think about what it would take to be competitive in the large aircraft industry today, the massive investment of capital, the ability to design and build the aircraft, meeting FAA requirements, and yes, if you want to break into the american or european markets, you have to meet FAA regulations, and then being able to sell the aircraft to companies, and then be able to deliver said aircraft.
you also need a market for these aircraft as well. boeing and airbus have cultivated their markets for many years, decades in the case of boeing, and these manufacturers grew as large as they are today by being the best in their market place, and by buying up competitors when they failed, to increase their capacity to build aircraft. boeing for instance bought up mcdonald-douglas, among other manufacturers, and integrated their product lines into the boeing line of aircraft. even china cannot match the manufacturing capacity boeing has right now.
so in the end, the consumer of these aircraft have a choice of airbus or boeing. if a third manufacturer were to try and break into these markets, they would have to prove that their aircraft are every bit as good as the two majors, and meet all regulations regarding these aircraft, and that will be tough to do. consider that boeing has been around building large aircraft since before world war two, and built two of the finest large aircraft during that war, the B17 and the B29. and has built the best large aircraft in the world since then. that is a tough reputation to overcome for an upstart builder.
the big commercial jet market is fairly small overall. if you want to find real competition, then the private jet market is where you want to look. cesssna, honda, and a bunch of others are competing like the auto industry in the 1930s.
yes, the duopoly can be broken, all it takes is an aircraft at least the equal of airbus or boeing, and at less cost. build a 787 or a380 style aircraft and sell it for 20% less, and the airlines will probably beat a path to your door.
It takes a lot more than that. There needs to be a global support network along with worldwide spare parts and training for local clients.
Embraer and Bombardier make good planes but they are all the small, short-haul variety. I have been on a bigger Embraer plane that was very nice so maybe they have a change but it takes millions in capital to engineer and test a new plane and airlines don't take chances.
It can and will be done in the next 20-25 years by the Chinese who are going to start buying their own planes but until then I would say NO.
Yes, Bombardier are going to surprise everyone in the Aviation industry. Embraer is not far behind.
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