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Also, there is a higher expectation in terms of meal service in Asian regional flights. You can get a meal served on flights between Hong Kong and Taipei - in a very short 90 minute flight. Dual aisle cabins would facilitate rapid service of bevs and food.
That is very interesting. I had no idea that the level of service was that much different in Asia. With that one simple statement you almost definitively answered the question.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nov 12, 2015 Guy Norris | Aviation Week & Space Technology
Boeing may still be years from launching a new midsize airplane (NMA), but clues about the forces shaping its potential design evolution continue to emerge.
The embryonic “757-replacement” NMA study is for an aircraft with more capacity than the 737-900ER/737-9 but with less range than the 787. Speaking at events surrounding the Dubai Airshow, John Wojick, senior vice president of global sales and marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, says: “We see substantial demand. If we can produce an airplane with a range of 4,500-5,000 nm, seating about 220-280 passengers, then there would be an awful lot of demand. I’d say in the thousands. Easily more than 2,000.”
The configuration of the NMA, and even whether the aircraft should be a longer single-aisle or a shorter twin-aisle, remains undecided. “Customers want the most efficient aircraft with single-aisle economics,” says Wojick. Fuel efficiency is a key driver of the design, but if the wider fuselage of a twin-aisle would incur greater drag, then the single-aisle feature could be retained. “If it means two-aisle are less efficient, then they’d be happy with a single-aisle,” he adds.
John Wojick should have commented that the biggest single aisle jet that Boeing ever produced , the Boeing 757-300 (with 55 planes delivered) did not have a single order in Asia.
Orders Ordering Airline First Order
13 Condor (Germany) Dec 9, 1996
1 Icelandair (Iceland) Jun 16, 1997
2 Arkia Israeli Airlines (Israel) Jul 31, 1998
2 Thomas Cook Airlines (United Kingdom) May 3, 2000
12 ATA Airlines, Inc. (USA) Jun 30, 2000
9 United Airlines (USA) Jan 2, 2001
16 Northwest/Delta Airlines (USA) Jan 16, 2001
55
Seats at present
275 Condor (Germany) 15 jets, acquired Thomas Cook jets
213 United Airlines (USA) 21 jet acquired ATA jets
234 Delta Airlines (USA) 16 jets, acquired Northwest jets
The single aisle B757-300 was designed to be a low cost replacement Boeing's first twin engine dual aisle jet, B767-200, most of which were ordered in 1978-1981. There were 128 B767-200s delivered with Japan's ANA airline the largest order (25 planes). Yet the B757-300 sold only 55 planes and only United actually used them as replacements for the B767-200.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 03-15-2018 at 02:26 AM..
That is very interesting. I had no idea that the level of service was that much different in Asia. With that one simple statement you almost definitively answered the question.
That was my experience on flights between TPE - HKG on CX, CI, and BR.
Now, this might be different now with the LCCs that are becoming more popular in Asia, such as Silk Air, Air Asia, Thai Smile and others. These LCCs are largely if not wholly equipped with single aisle narrowbody aircraft.
So in that light, maybe the 757 was a bit too early for its time in Asia.
So in that light, maybe the 757 was a bit too early for its time in Asia.
It's not a black and white decision , it's a "how many airframes can you sell" decision.
Like I said, most Americans prefer to cross the Atlantic in a dual aisle jet, but in a real life situation where you are in Newark and you want to fly to Stockholm, you will probably take the B757 nonstop rather than fly to a hub in a dual aisle jet.
So if Asian customers purchased 83 of 994 B757-200s (all versions) and ZERO of 55 B757-300s (which have an exit limit of an additional seats) one question is was the "757 was a bit too early for its time in Asia".
But the A321neo (exit limit of 240 seats) is about as large as the B757-200 (exit limit of 239 seats). However Asian customers only ordered about 28% of the A321neo, which is better than 8% of the B757-200 but still proportionately low.
The increase from 8% to 28% indicates that Asian LCC have had some influence and the market has matured.
In present day economics, the NMA has to sell well over 40% of orders in Asia. There is no way to meet expected demand of thousands of aircraft.
Statistics are statistics, but you are also selling something. There is no way you can argue the numbers to indicate an all premium upper deck of an A380 makes sense, and even worse if you add showers. But Emirates and Etihad know that their customers will pay a premium knowing that the lower classes are a stairway away, and not just a curtain away.
Airbus % of orders Asia-Pacific
28.9% A320ceo
25.6% A321neo
38.3% A330neo
35.7% A350-900
25.0% A350-1000
24.2% A380
Last edited by PacoMartin; 03-16-2018 at 06:45 AM..
Like I said, most Americans prefer to cross the Atlantic in a dual aisle jet,
This might be part of your answer right here. Asian airlines are famous for their excellent customer service, which means that their managements care enough about their customers that they go the extra mile to please them. Maybe this fact is a factor in single-aisle planes not being popular for long-haul flights on Asian carriers -- because the airline managements know that their customers prefer twin-aisle planes.
This might be part of your answer right here. Asian airlines are famous for their excellent customer service, which means that their managements care enough about their customers that they go the extra mile to please them. Maybe this fact is a factor in single-aisle planes not being popular for long-haul flights on Asian carriers -- because the airline managements know that their customers prefer twin-aisle planes.
I think so. When the B757 and B767 went on sale Boeing didn't think of them as an either/or purchasing decision. They assumed that airlines would buy both jets. Pilots could be certified on both models at the same time. The airline would simply choose which routes were the busiest or longest and assign the appropriate model. Roughly 74% of the B757s and 50% of the B767s were sold to airlines that bought both types.
After about 15 years, Boeing developed a new larger B757 to replace the original generation of B767 since the technology could support a larger single aisle jet. However only 55 of the new B757-300s were sold compared to 128 B767-200s, and only United seems to have been using them as replacements. None were sold in Asia.
The following airlines stayed true to Boeing's vision and purchased a combination of B757s and B767s.
United Airlines
Delta Air Lines
American Airlines
US Airways
TWA
British Airways
TUI Travel PLC
Air China
Shanghai Airlines
But no Japanese airline ever bought a B757. Yet two of the largest orders of B767s went to:
96 All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd.
60 Japan Airlines
But the Boeing 757 planes were last delivered in 2005 and the B767 passenger versions were last delivered in 2013. We can only look at the newest generation of Airbus orders to see if Asian preferences have changed.
The data is not black and white, but it does seem to indicate that the Asia-Pacific prefers the mid size dual aisle jet over the single aisle jet.
Airbus % of orders Asia-Pacific
28.9% A320ceo
25.6% A321neo
38.3% A330neo
35.7% A350-900
25.0% A350-1000
24.2% A380
Boeing is not being particularly open about their plans for the NSA (New Small Airplane), but has been much more explicit about the NMA (New Midsize Airplane). The NMA should be in two variants, with 225 and 270 seats in dual class with a range of 5000-5400 nautical miles. The Boeing 757-200/-300 had exit limits of 239 / 295 seats and ranges of 3,915nmi / 3,400nmi.
In the past the operating empty weight of single aisle vs a dual aisle has usually been about 20% less per seat simply because of the overhead of the extra aisle. In addition the wider body introduces a lot more drag which costs money in fuel.
Without considering engineering design issue, I think that this question about Asian preferences may have forced Boeing into the decision to make the NMA a dual aisle jet.
However, on the flip side, smaller dual aisle jets have been built in the past, but never sold very well. The Airbus 310 is the first example, the first generation of B767 did not sell very well until a larger longer range version was built, and the new engine option A330-800 has lost every single customer.
Boeing's B737-9 and B737-10 are selling very poorly and B777X might shipwreck over freedom of the skies disputes with Mideast airlines. Airbus's A380 program is perennially in trouble, and the A350 production line has so far been very slow.
The B737-Max-8 and the A320neo are the standards with large unfilled orders and plans to increase production rates, but profit per plane is relatively low. These planes might come under direct assault by foreign manufacturers in the next few years.
The closest that we have to certainty in higher profit models is that Airbus is probably going to sell a lot of A321neos, and a possibly a good percentage will be the Long Range version.
My final prediction is that the smaller NMA will not sell very well. It offers only slightly more seats and some extra range over the A321LR and will probably be priced at least 50% higher with higher operating costs per seat. It's not a good combination.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 03-16-2018 at 12:55 PM..
Well, I like 757s, but I don't think I'd want to fly in one of Condor's.... 275 seats in a single-aisle aircraft is just absurd.
The FAA exit limit is actually 295 seats.
The discussions of the NMA is 220-280 seats in two classes with range over 5,000 nm
Qatar Airways CEO thinks that Boeing is making a mistake. Qatar operates their 30 Boeing 787-8s (Range 7,355 nmi) with 22 business class seats and 232 economy seats for 254 total.
The QA CEO thinks that Boeing should modify a variant of the 787-8 so that is cheaper, even if it loses range. It would be less expensive than developing a new plane entirely.
It is pretty clear that Boeing needs to develop a NSA (New Single aisle Airport) as the B737 can't be built forever.
But no Japanese airline ever bought a B757. Yet two of the largest orders of B767s went to:
96 All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd.
60 Japan Airlines
The domestic Japanese airlines tend to fly high capacity aircraft for relatively short distances due to airport capacity/movement restraints. Until recently they often flew modified versions of 747s (747SRs) for major trunk routes. So it's not surprising at least in Japan they'll fly double aisle aircraft heavily for many domestic routes, and not buy up many single aisle planes. Flew a 777 from Haneda to Ota (Kyushu) several years back.
It's not a black and white decision , it's a "how many airframes can you sell" decision.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So if Asian customers purchased 83 of 994 B757-200s (all versions) and ZERO of 55 B757-300s (which have an exit limit of an additional seats) one question is was the "757 was a bit too early for its time in Asia".
But the A321neo (exit limit of 240 seats) is about as large as the B757-200 (exit limit of 239 seats). However Asian customers only ordered about 28% of the A321neo, which is better than 8% of the B757-200 but still proportionately low.
The increase from 8% to 28% indicates that Asian LCC have had some influence and the market has matured.
In present day economics, the NMA has to sell well over 40% of orders in Asia. There is no way to meet expected demand of thousands of aircraft.
Yep, you're right --- airlines in Asia will buy some, just not a lot of single aisle jets, compared with N America or Europe.
Yep, you're right --- airlines in Asia will buy some, just not a lot of single aisle jets, compared with N America or Europe.
Asia has more than 3X the population of North and South America combined. So the potential growth over the next 20 years in airline traffic needs to be considered.
Airbus divides it's orders up by geographic regions, but lease companies are their own category. It is very common for an American or European leasing company to buy an airplane for Latin America or Africa. Total refers to all 18,234 jet orders ever received in the history of Airbus.
Inexpensive dual aisle jets are much higher than normal in Asia.
Total Sales region A330-300
27% Asia- Pacific 46%
23% Leasing 22%
19% Europe 17%
12% North America 6%
7% Latin America 0%
6% Middle East 5%
3% undisclosed 3%
1% Africa 2%
1% Gov, Exec Pri 0%
100% Total 100%
More expensive dual aisle jets are also much higher than normal in Asia.
Total Sales region A350-900
27% Asia- Pacific 36%
23% Leasing 9%
19% Europe 17%
12% North America 13%
7% Latin America 4%
6% Middle East 14%
3% undisclosed 0%
1% Africa 6%
1% Gov, Exec Pri 0%
100% Total 100%
Larger single aisle jets are closer to the same level as Europe
Total Sales region A321ceo A321neo
27% Asia- Pacific 24% 26%
23% Leasing 21% 19%
19% Europe 23% 24%
12% North America 24% 16%
7% Latin America 4% 5%
6% Middle East 3% 6%
3% undisclosed 1% 4%
1% Africa 0% 0%
1% Gov, Exec Pri 0% 0%
100% Total 100% 100%
Airbus's largest jets are dominated by Middle East orders
Total Sales region A350-1000 A380
27% Asia- Pacific 25% 24%
23% Leasing 5% 7%
19% Europe 17% 11%
12% North America 0% 0%
7% Latin America 7% 0%
6% Middle East 45% 55%
3% undisclosed 1% 3%
1% Africa 0% 0%
1% Gov, Exec Pri 0% 0%
100% Total 100% 100%
==================================
As a side note, the current North American orders for the A321neo are still 30% lower than the A321ceo orders. Possibly Spirit Airlines, Air Canada or Virgin America may still place some orders to the detriment of future Boeing NMA sales.
100 DELTA AIR LINES
100 AMERICAN AIRLINES
60 JETBLUE AIRWAYS
34 FRONTIER AIRLINES
16 HAWAIIAN AIRLINES
Last edited by PacoMartin; 03-19-2018 at 02:53 AM..
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