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Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,690 posts, read 57,994,855 times
Reputation: 46171
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I don't think this news changes anything, (yet)
The unusually high airspeed is yet another mystery.
There is a whole investigation to continue.
Many of these systems inter-relate, so any combination of errors can 'break' your chance of recovery. Especially in the first few moments of flight. Remember... the Lion Air jumpseat 'savior' corrected their problem more conventionally than 'turning-off' the MCAS. As would a seasoned / experienced pilot.
From what I have gathered... the 28 yo 'senior' Captain (?) had not done Max 8 training, and the FO with 200 hrs... (Who knows?)
I'll wait for the (complete) findings.
I asked the youngest of my 737-800 pilots today (~40 YO) if he was an ex-military pilot.
Yes is a good answer.
The unusually high airspeed is yet another mystery.
There is a whole investigation to continue.
Many of these systems inter-relate, so any combination of errors can 'break' your chance of recovery. Especially in the first few moments of flight. Remember... the Lion Air jumpseat 'savior' corrected their problem more conventionally than 'turning-off' the MCAS. As would a seasoned / experienced pilot.
From what I have gathered... the 28 yo 'senior' Captain (?) had not done Max 8 training, and the FO with 200 hrs... (Who knows?)
I'll wait for the (complete) findings.
I asked the youngest of my 737-800 pilots today (~40 YO) if he was an ex-military pilot.
Yes is a good answer.
That's what I asked about earlier.
What was said before, to some, by many, was to wait for the investigation like you are. Too many others have already decided they knew everything already.
So hundreds of people's lives on each future MAX flight will now be controlled by some software fix. Not real pilots flying the aircraft.
I'd rather have pilots controlling the plane (instead of some sensor that was damaged upon takeoff by a bird (or ?) per a news story seen on a video on Yahoo news today). Some small blade like sensor that rotates in some way.
What was said before, to some, by many, was to wait for the investigation like you are. Too many others have already decided they knew everything already.
That's a very interesting response to troubling information. Social scientists (and natural scientists) have identified multiple ways of responding to information. One way is "Wait for all the info to come in". I'll call that the Wait position. The other way is "Constantly update as information comes in." I'll call that the Update position.
There are lots of situations where Wait makes sense. Situations where the cost of changing course is high are ideal for Waiting. Also, if the stakes are low, Waiting makes sense.
The possibility of dying in a plane crash is neither of those things. Anyone booking a ticket after the second crash can just book tickets on other airlines. No or minimal financial or even time cost difference. And the stakes are massively high--bet wrong, and you raise the chance your life is over.
In high stakes, low cost situations, it makes a lot of sense to Update as new information comes in. That's what lots of people posting have been doing. So, we have two strategies:
Wait--Those posters would not accuse pilots of incompetence, or even venture a guess about what happened. So, such posters do not exist, because to POST one has to say something. The pure Wait position says nothing.
Update--Those posters have a PRIOR and update as new information becomes available. So, they will engage in serious discussions with as many people as possible to gain new insights. When an official report is released, they will Update again. Some of the accusers fall into this category. We'll see if they Update their claims based on the new information or, instead, stop posting, which would mean they are not Updaters, nor are they Waiters. Instead, they are just Interested Parties rooting for a specific outcome. That's not the same as Waiters or Updaters, for both Waiters and Updaters just want to know the Truth. They just have different strategies for getting to it.
Two key downsides to the Wait strategy are 1)A Waiter may die before for "full" information comes in when there may have been enough information to change course and 2)the Waiter has to avoid Waiting for FULL information because we will never have FULL information. A key downside of the Update position is that it is more cognitively demanding, so it is hard to do well. That said, BOTH Waiting and Updating strategies work, if applied well. So, its not really helpful to tell others "Stop UPDATING! WAIT!" or "Stop WAITING! UPDATE!" Just do the strategy that you feel works for you, and respect other people's strategies as well.
They may recover in that they will be able to resume production, but it is not clear if they will kill all future sales.
They have actually increased production. The current assessment is that if the "fix" takes another six months, which some are saying, Boeing could be sitting on a backlog of over 300 undelivered aircraft. That's a lot of working capital literally gathering dust. If they have to stop production the estimated impact is over 0.1% of US GDP.
That's a very interesting response to troubling information. Social scientists (and natural scientists) have identified multiple ways of responding to information. One way is "Wait for all the info to come in". I'll call that the Wait position. The other way is "Constantly update as information comes in." I'll call that the Update position.
There are lots of situations where Wait makes sense. Situations where the cost of changing course is high are ideal for Waiting. Also, if the stakes are low, Waiting makes sense.
The possibility of dying in a plane crash is neither of those things. Anyone booking a ticket after the second crash can just book tickets on other airlines. No or minimal financial or even time cost difference. And the stakes are massively high--bet wrong, and you raise the chance your life is over.
In high stakes, low cost situations, it makes a lot of sense to Update as new information comes in. That's what lots of people posting have been doing. So, we have two strategies:
Wait--Those posters would not accuse pilots of incompetence, or even venture a guess about what happened. So, such posters do not exist, because to POST one has to say something. The pure Wait position says nothing.
Update--Those posters have a PRIOR and update as new information becomes available. So, they will engage in serious discussions with as many people as possible to gain new insights. When an official report is released, they will Update again. Some of the accusers fall into this category. We'll see if they Update their claims based on the new information or, instead, stop posting, which would mean they are not Updaters, nor are they Waiters. Instead, they are just Interested Parties rooting for a specific outcome. That's not the same as Waiters or Updaters, for both Waiters and Updaters just want to know the Truth. They just have different strategies for getting to it.
Two key downsides to the Wait strategy are 1)A Waiter may die before for "full" information comes in when there may have been enough information to change course and 2)the Waiter has to avoid Waiting for FULL information because we will never have FULL information. A key downside of the Update position is that it is more cognitively demanding, so it is hard to do well. That said, BOTH Waiting and Updating strategies work, if applied well. So, its not really helpful to tell others "Stop UPDATING! WAIT!" or "Stop WAITING! UPDATE!" Just do the strategy that you feel works for you, and respect other people's strategies as well.
I didn't say anyone can't speculate. I commented on those vwho go beyond that and decide that they know what the problem is, and whose fault it is, when we all know that they don't really know because all of the facts are not in. It's one thing to speculate, but to pass judgement without the facts is going too far.
By the way, the planes are grounded so there's no risk of dying in one of them yet.
I didn't say anyone can't speculate. I commented on those vwho go beyond that and decide that they know what the problem is, and whose fault it is, when we all know that they don't really know because all of the facts are not in. It's one thing to speculate, but to pass judgement without the facts is going too far.
Fair enough. Just know that the way people tend to write, one person's "exploration of the issue" is another persons' "crazy passing of judgment without access to the facts."
Quote:
Originally Posted by dkf747
By the way, the planes are grounded so there's no risk of dying in one of them yet.
True. But now we know there are other risks--financial, economic, and criminal. So now its a fascinating story. How did it get to be so?
Well, the U.S. government delayed grounding the planes, and I SPECULATE that that had the effect of spurring interest in speculating. Had they just grounded the plane, the news reporters would have moved on and waited for the report. Instead, by dragging out the process they made it look like there was some massive corruption scandal. And, in fact, it looks like there may have been, which suggest Boeing people and the government actors felt guilty, and by NOT doing what would have been normal (ground the plane) quickly, they just attracted more attention. It led business reporters to flock to the story to cover what it'll mean for the stock, led people to wonder about the airworthiness of Boeing and its viability, and so on. And, now that interest has been ignited, its not going to go away so easily.
Just goes to show, the way to deal with scandal is to get out in front of it, not drag your heels and hope it'll go away. It won't.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,690 posts, read 57,994,855 times
Reputation: 46171
Well... we (c-d posters) do not have all the info needed to determine the exact cause. (Nor do the investigators).
Once all the content is available, there will likely not be enough info to positively identify absolute cause.
There will be elements potentially leading to cause.
Then there will be all the unknowns.
Sure, everyone could speculate on cause / blame, but that does not equal facts.
RE: dying on a flight. I will take those odds (As I do sometimes > hundred of flights / yr. ) for over 30 yrs.
I'm insured, my estate / heirs / charities should come out ahead on that deal.
I have taken a bunch of Max 8 flights, Asia, Europe, and USA.
They should be quite safe soon (but that does not mean the recovery techniques of ALL pilots will be assured)
That's a very interesting response to troubling information. Social scientists (and natural scientists) have identified multiple ways of responding to information. One way is "Wait for all the info to come in". I'll call that the Wait position. The other way is "Constantly update as information comes in." I'll call that the Update position.
There are lots of situations where Wait makes sense. Situations where the cost of changing course is high are ideal for Waiting. Also, if the stakes are low, Waiting makes sense.
The possibility of dying in a plane crash is neither of those things. Anyone booking a ticket after the second crash can just book tickets on other airlines. No or minimal financial or even time cost difference. And the stakes are massively high--bet wrong, and you raise the chance your life is over.
Good post, but I’d like to point out 2 additional issues with the ‘Update’ position in this case.
1) ‘Update’ requires the person to assess the type of information that is obtained. Once you learn a new fact, the only decision you will subsequently need to make is to decide whether that fact is still relevant to your understanding of the issue. On the other hand, the *validity* of commentary/opinion/speculation needs to be continuously reassessed because a subsequent piece of info may prove it is completely wrong and should be deleted. That is much more difficult to do than just assessing relevance, and requires the person to commit to greater processing effort.
2) ‘Update’ is much riskier because if you lose interest in a topic, you will stop gathering new information and your brain will record an erroneous conclusion, which you will still trust is ‘true’ because you exerted so much effort in gathering this (ultimately incomplete) information. In contrast, the worst case scenario with ‘Wait’ is that if you lose interest, your brain will register no conclusion (‘who ended up being blamed for that crash?’). Next time a Boeing plane crashes in a foreign country, how many armchair my-son-is-a-pilot guys will automatically think of improper training as a likely cause, because my son told me this on the way to San Diego?
Well... we (c-d posters) do not have all the info needed to determine the exact cause. (Nor do the investigators).
Once all the content is available, there will likely not be enough info to positively identify absolute cause.
There will be elements potentially leading to cause.
Then there will be all the unknowns.
Sure, everyone could speculate on cause / blame, but that does not equal facts.
RE: dying on a flight. I will take those odds (As I do sometimes > hundred of flights / yr. ) for over 30 yrs.
I'm insured, my estate / heirs / charities should come out ahead on that deal.
I have taken a bunch of Max 8 flights, Asia, Europe, and USA.
They should be quite safe soon (but that does not mean the recovery techniques of ALL pilots will be assured)
Yet you never seem to pass up the opportunity to point out how young the pilot was.
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(Who knows?)
