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Old 03-10-2011, 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by End-User View Post
That matches the general consensus I've heard. Can you link to the studies about only needing 3 homebuyers?

I wonder how you can prevent this decline in property value. Obviously you would need to prop up demand for housing in the area, but do you do that by convincing non-black owners not to sell or do you look for more black home buyers to replace them? The problem with the latter is that the black middle class isn't nearly large enough to make up for the drop in demand. Are there things other than demographics that could be used to increase demand? If not, it might just make more sense for the black middle class to give up on owning homes and just rent their entire lives.
you can't really prevent the decline. at least that's the reality as i've come to see it. the only way to prevent decline in a "black neighborhood" is if "gentrification" happens. For many in the black community, gentrification is just a code word for "middle and upper income white buyers" for the most part. look what's happened in harlem and brooklyn new york. hell look what's happened to most parts of dc? surely all the areas that were "gentrified" weren't comprised of only poor black people. let's look at two maryland counties. prince georges county has one of the highest per capita incomes in the country. montgomery county has one of the highest per capita incomes as well. both border dc. both attract middle and upper income buyers. one predominantly attracts black buyers. the other predominantly attracts white buyers. all things being equal, housing values in montgomery county double on average those in prince georges county. why? populations are roughly the same give or take a 100k, incomes are roughly the same, access to dc is probably better in pg than moco. the reality is that one county is seen as a county where white families move to and the other is seen as a county where black families move to. i agree that the old saying location, location, location is key but there's an unstated truth to that which is location, location, location and how close am i to white folk? that's why upper income black people tend to move to neighborhoods where they are more often than not, 1 of 2 black families in the entire development. it should also be noted that crime and education also plays a role in this as well but that's beyond the scope of this topic so i won't go off into that.
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Old 03-10-2011, 08:41 AM
 
Location: North Baltimore ----> Seattle
6,473 posts, read 10,813,009 times
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Originally Posted by (-) View Post
hell look what's happened to most parts of dc? .
I went to a concert in NE DC last night (H street). Holy crap, you could see the gentrification taking place right beore your eyes!
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Old 03-10-2011, 01:05 PM
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690 posts, read 1,598,317 times
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Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown View Post
I went to a concert in NE DC last night (H street). Holy crap, you could see the gentrification taking place right beore your eyes!
give dc 5 more years and you won't recognize anything. glad i bought my properties when i was young and things were relatively cheap.
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Old 03-10-2011, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,569 posts, read 15,930,981 times
Reputation: 6271
Quote:
Originally Posted by (-) View Post
you can't really prevent the decline. at least that's the reality as i've come to see it. the only way to prevent decline in a "black neighborhood" is if "gentrification" happens. For many in the black community, gentrification is just a code word for "middle and upper income white buyers" for the most part. look what's happened in harlem and brooklyn new york. hell look what's happened to most parts of dc? surely all the areas that were "gentrified" weren't comprised of only poor black people. let's look at two maryland counties. prince georges county has one of the highest per capita incomes in the country. montgomery county has one of the highest per capita incomes as well. both border dc. both attract middle and upper income buyers. one predominantly attracts black buyers. the other predominantly attracts white buyers. all things being equal, housing values in montgomery county double on average those in prince georges county. why? populations are roughly the same give or take a 100k, incomes are roughly the same, access to dc is probably better in pg than moco. the reality is that one county is seen as a county where white families move to and the other is seen as a county where black families move to. i agree that the old saying location, location, location is key but there's an unstated truth to that which is location, location, location and how close am i to white folk? that's why upper income black people tend to move to neighborhoods where they are more often than not, 1 of 2 black families in the entire development. it should also be noted that crime and education also plays a role in this as well but that's beyond the scope of this topic so i won't go off into that.
Agree with most of your analysis. For Owings Mills in particular gentrification will be tough since its not a hot location.

Another variable between PG & MoCo that is a reason for the property values being so disparate between the two even though their income profile is similar are school performance and crime.

Unfortunately the weaker performance of PG in both categories is a direct result of a significant poor black population.
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Old 03-10-2011, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,569 posts, read 15,930,981 times
Reputation: 6271
Quote:
Originally Posted by End-User View Post
That matches the general consensus I've heard. Can you link to the studies about only needing 3 homebuyers?

I wonder how you can prevent this decline in property value. Obviously you would need to prop up demand for housing in the area, but do you do that by convincing non-black owners not to sell or do you look for more black home buyers to replace them? The problem with the latter is that the black middle class isn't nearly large enough to make up for the drop in demand. Are there things other than demographics that could be used to increase demand? If not, it might just make more sense for the black middle class to give up on owning homes and just rent their entire lives.
Bingo. The Black middle class is not only smaller but it's not a monolith. So you will have Black families who will not want to live near other black families. The only thing that can overcome this is location.

If a location is good enough and the crime situation somewhat stable you will see the stirrings of gentrification occur. In which case existing black homeowners benefit. I grew up in Alexandria and the Parker Gray part of Old Town this occurred. The area mostly Black (around 80-90% back in the 70s and 80s) is now mostly white.

What's interesting is the whites still won't put their kids in the neighborhood public school because it draws heavily from the mostly black projects.

So you have white families paying top dollar for smaller space and still have to fork over thousands for private schools. They do this mainly because of the location.
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Old 03-20-2011, 05:53 AM
Status: "I am in action mode." (set 19 days ago)
 
5,535 posts, read 5,596,447 times
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Originally Posted by Miss Crabcakes View Post
I understand what your saying. For me however, it would still be a nice step up. I'm a native Baltimorean who grew up in much worse areas (Pimlico/Lower Park Heights) and have lived in apartments since I was 15. I just moved from a low income apartment in Pikesville to a bigger apartment in Mt. Washington which we love. But truthfully, my husband and I can't afford anything over $150k so the better suburbs like Hunt Valley, Columbia and Towson are way out of our price range.

I also understand how property values can drop depending on the demographics, sad but true. I'm black, BTW but my husband is white. We already shop in Owings Mills and I have co-workers that live there. We kinda figure if we wait to afford the nicer areas, well..we may be life-long renters.

So it may not be ideal but it could be a good start for us.
Good for you. I purchased a property in an ethnically diverse area about 10 years ago and it has paid off. It is all about timing, job stability, affordability and accessibility to work. I know a black woman who bought a condo in a predominately white neighborhood and she is $100,000 underwater. I actually felt the same way when I was house hunting but affordability and accessibility to my place of work won. Thank God! Good luck.
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Old 03-20-2011, 06:11 AM
Status: "I am in action mode." (set 19 days ago)
 
5,535 posts, read 5,596,447 times
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Originally Posted by (-) View Post
i have a good friend who moved out to owings mills fresh out of college with a degree in engineering back in 2000. he brought one of those newly built townhouses with everything in it. i think he paid 150k for it. at that time, owings mills was the "it" spot for young, black, professionals. it was like saying "i've made it". a couple of years later, more folks started moving out there and they started building new schools and what not. i think he had it refinanced for like $250k. times were good. then the crash came. now he has a wife, 3 kids and can't sell his property for anywhere near $250k. the 23 year old baller is now a 34 year old father who wants to move but can't because he's upside down on his mortgage. i don't know how true it is but he claims the property values started coming down when other black families started moving out to o.w. i don't think he was saying that in a resentful way but more in a way that's become a reality for many african americans. middle class black neighborhoods aren't priced the same as middle class white neighborhoods. i think they call it redlining or something like that. i don't know. at the end of the day it's one of the reasons i've never sought out to live in a "black" neighborhood, sad to say, because property value trumps race imo. having said all that to say, don't look at the prices now as if you are getting a good deal, look at the long term potential/investment. choose the area with the best price, best schools, and best long term value regardless of race.
What happened to the $100,000 he took out? I think a $100,000 return on an investment is pretty good, don't you? The bubble burst. Most homeowners of all races are suffering. It is purely economics. Property values are higher in white neighborhoods because white people make more money. Go to work tomorrow and take a good look around. Merit rarely has anything to do with high paying jobs in corporate america. Management likes to promote people who look like them.
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Old 03-20-2011, 06:43 AM
Status: "I am in action mode." (set 19 days ago)
 
5,535 posts, read 5,596,447 times
Reputation: 4252
Quote:
Originally Posted by End-User View Post
That matches the general consensus I've heard. Can you link to the studies about only needing 3 homebuyers?

I wonder how you can prevent this decline in property value. Obviously you would need to prop up demand for housing in the area, but do you do that by convincing non-black owners not to sell or do you look for more black home buyers to replace them? The problem with the latter is that the black middle class isn't nearly large enough to make up for the drop in demand. Are there things other than demographics that could be used to increase demand? If not, it might just make more sense for the black middle class to give up on owning homes and just rent their entire lives.
The decline of property value is happening everywhere. Nevada, Arizona and Florida property values have been decimated by the economic decline. I can't believe that you would suggest for middle-class black families to rent forever considering many companies are no longer offering pensions. Real estate is an important vehicle to building wealth. The average person spends 50% of their income in rent where I live. If that is so, how much is left to invest in their 401K and other investments? You have to look deeper. Our world is changing; blacks and other minorities will be left out in the cold if we do not acquire assets.
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Old 03-20-2011, 02:22 PM
 
251 posts, read 610,415 times
Reputation: 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodlife36 View Post
The decline of property value is happening everywhere. Nevada, Arizona and Florida property values have been decimated by the economic decline. I can't believe that you would suggest for middle-class black families to rent forever considering many companies are no longer offering pensions. Real estate is an important vehicle to building wealth. The average person spends 50% of their income in rent where I live. If that is so, how much is left to invest in their 401K and other investments? You have to look deeper. Our world is changing; blacks and other minorities will be left out in the cold if we do not acquire assets.
Well I wasn't talking about the current decline in property value that resulted from a burst housing bubble. I was talking about "white flight" causing a decline in property value. Without a solution to that problem I question if real estate is in fact a vehicle to building wealth for middle class class black families.

Unfortunately the more I ponder the situation the more it starts sounding like a doctorate paper that I don't have the credentials to write. There are just so many questions to research. Between the 60s and today, what percentage of black homeowners were underwater due to white flight? How do majority black neighborhoods compare to areas where blacks are the minority? How do young buyers who've purchased their first home compare to older home owners? How do new communities compare to established ones? And of course all of this requires us to figure out if white flight was responsible for a drop in property values or if something else was, such as a bursting bubble. You can see there is a lot to examine here, although almost none of the information will be useful to an individual who wants to buy a home.
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