Interesting view on the real estate slump (Baltimore, Gaithersburg: apartment, health insurance)

[Augie]

I wish I had known jojjj was in S.W. Florida last week. I would have liked to meet up with him and maybe go for lunch and show him my area of Punta Gorda. I have enjoyed reading his posts many times, as well as those of Bawlmore, Carolott, and Barante, among others. You all seem like a bunch of nice, interesting people. I hope to meet all of you when I'm in Bmore.

Anyway, a lot of great material and points of view from you all.

In any discussion of real estate, we , of course, must consider salaries vs. prices and the stability of neighborhoods. However, it has occurred to me that I know of plenty of people with money out there (despite the crying) who might buy in Baltimore were it a more desireable place to live. Not everyone desires being an urban pioneer or living a life-style which gives satisfaction by being able to "tough it out and cope". Most folks just want peace, law, order and friendliness. I myself can't envision anyone looking for a great quality of life and easy living, buying in Baltimore; unless they have business there which makes it absolutely necessary, then they buy. Get in, complete your business, and get out! Seems understandable when I read about the rough side of B'more living.

My point? I don't know! We have recently bought in Patterson Park because we have business in Bmore, but quite frankly, my expectations are mixed. I hope I don't have some of the negative experiences others have talked about on this forum. And who knows? Maybe we'll decide to stay forever...

I share your hopes for revitalization, stability and progress. I see positive things about Bmore when I hear good people like you staying, trying your best and being concerned about the city.

I look forward to being your new neighbor and hanging out with you (I'm big on breakfast groups, wine and cheese things, etc.). I'd like to make my B'more experience a "charming" one.

[ablummer]

I just moved to Baltimore and I found that there were a ton of houses available at a wide variety of prices. I would definitely recommend getting an agent because they know the city, you use their gas getting around and with them driving you you can take more time to view your surroundings rather than staring at the map or listening to your Garmin.

My transaction ended up having several hassles that would have been complete nightmares if not for my agent. You can get an agent that just represents your interests, even though they are being paid by the seller. I'd be glad to recommend my agent to anyone buying in Baltimore, she really knew the city and she fought like a tiger for our interests. Send me a message and I'll give you her name and info. I don't want to seem like I am posting just to advertise, I'm not even sure if that's allowed.

[krakenten]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in Baltimore, now that the bubble is burst.

If BRAC does indeed bring so many good jobs, the city will bloom again, perhaps.

But crime and dysfunction are still issues-could be an influx of people who vote and have incomes will cause regime change.

[barante]

I truly believe that life, as we have known it, has ended. People just haven't been hit with this fact yet. We'll all see the fallout of permanently steeper oil prices. People will have to start living again close to their work, as in the past unless they are rich.
Many city neighborhoods will benefit. Among those will be the western and northwestern edge (with the new community replacing the torn down Uplands Apartments off Edmondson Avenue among beneficiaries). I predict revitalization of Irvington (a tough proposal!), higher demand for all inside the Beltway communities. Look for a total makeover in Brooklyn, Curtis Bay and along Route 2.
Another beneficiary will be the whole Mondawmin area, including Ashburton. Access to mass transit now rules.

[jonjj]

I agree and here is a great news story on this:

Yahoo!

[krakenten]

No way!

Inexpensive(at least affordable)transportation is coming, simply because of the mass demand.

Suburbanites are not coming back to the city.

[jonjj]

Originally Posted by krakenten

No way!

Inexpensive(at least affordable)transportation is coming, simply because of the mass demand.

Suburbanites are not coming back to the city.

hehehe--many already have. Not sure where you have been the last few years!

[barante]

Let me amend my previous post, because my focus was too narrow. While some city neighborhoods will benefit, so will many neighborhoods in Baltimore County and in other counties. After all, places like Hunt Valley are very important economic engines. Within the next five years you will see more building there, more high-rises.
So what I meant was that while public transit rules, there are lots of employment centers that are not reachable by public transit (Hunt Valley is, by light rail). In the latter cases, people just have to move closer to their places of employment.

[atlas1882]

Barante, I think you might be underestimating the costs associated with transforming our current living patterns relative to the potential for technological improvements and modest changes in behavior to facilitate the ongoing expansion of suburbs and, yes, even exurbs. Buying more fuel efficient cars and rearranging errands to minimize travel are much more cost effective solutions for coping with increased energy prices than selling a home with a large yard in a depressed real estate market to move into townhouse or high-rise apartment.

[barante]

You may be right. However, I foresee a very difficult economic transition for many. Options are limited. How do you sell a SUV in a market in which the value of gas guzzlers keeps plummeting and factories cannot keep up with the production of hybrids. Also, if you know anything about steel prices, you have to conclude that future car prices will be much higher. This clearly will reduce the number of domestic car makers to two.
Two years ago I talked to a car sales manager whose dealership serves primarily the Perry Hall/Dundalk region. He had done a survey of the client base and he was shocked. As recently as a decade ago, he said, a substantial number of car sales were done on a cash basis, a reflection of the communities' traditional values. Now, he said, a typical client had something like $30,000 in credit card and other unsecured consumer debt. That number was particularly high among 35-50 olds. He told me that a crisis of great severity was just around the corner.
Back to housing. The new economic realities will take some time to sink in. But far-reaching changes are ahead.
Areas close to transit routes are in demand. Two random observations:
Site prep is going on on a vacant lot Taney Road, near Cross Country. For years, it was for sale and there were no takers.
On Patterson Avenue, between Wabash and Liberty, site prep is under way on a big lot as well.