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Only if you believe that one guy who is not on the field has more impact on the outcome of a game than the 9 guys on the field do.
I don't happen to believe that.
I was speaking generally to those in the thread that were giving props to Charlie for winning the game and hyping him up because of it. I do believe that a manager can have a big enough impact on a game that his team would either win or lose based on one or more of his choices throughout the game. An easy example of this would be how Tony Larussa routinely bats his pitchers in the 8 spot in the order instead of the traditional 9 spot. His reasoning is his best hitter(Pujols) bats 3rd in the lineup. So by getting the pitcher out of the way 8th he has a better chance of the bases being loaded or at least more rbi opportunities when Pujols comes up to bat, if the 9th, 1st and 2nd hitters were to reach base. His view is it is like an extra leadoff man in the lineup. Now agree or disagree with his philosophy(mind you he is 3rd all time in wins by a manager and has won a world championship in both the AL and NL) you would have to agree that his action will have an impact on if his team wins or loses. If a situation or two occured during the game where the bases were loaded with 2 outs in the inning and the 8th hitter(the pitcher) were up and struck out, then people would say he cost the team the game if they were to lose. If Pujols hit a grandslam and they won then people would say ahh this guy is a genius for hitting the pitcher 8th and having 2 leadoff guys at 9 and 1 in the order that allowed Pujols to hit the slam.
I was speaking generally to those in the thread that were giving props to Charlie for winning the game and hyping him up because of it. I do believe that a manager can have a big enough impact on a game that his team would either win or lose based on one or more of his choices throughout the game. An easy example of this would be how Tony Larussa routinely bats his pitchers in the 8 spot in the order instead of the traditional 9 spot. His reasoning is his best hitter(Pujols) bats 3rd in the lineup. So by getting the pitcher out of the way 8th he has a better chance of the bases being loaded or at least more rbi opportunities when Pujols comes up to bat, if the 9th, 1st and 2nd hitters were to reach base. His view is it is like an extra leadoff man in the lineup. Now agree or disagree with his philosophy(mind you he is 3rd all time in wins by a manager and has won a world championship in both the AL and NL) you would have to agree that his action will have an impact on if his team wins or loses. If a situation or two occured during the game where the bases were loaded with 2 outs in the inning and the 8th hitter(the pitcher) were up and struck out, then people would say he cost the team the game if they were to lose. If Pujols hit a grandslam and they won then people would say ahh this guy is a genius for hitting the pitcher 8th and having 2 leadoff guys at 9 and 1 in the order that allowed Pujols to hit the slam.
Hitting your best hitter third is, statistically, one of the worst things that you can do. The reason being that your #3 hitter comes most frequently with two outs and no runners on base. This means that you best hitter comes up most frequently with the least opportunity to drive in runs or get into a position to be driven in. Batting the pitcher 8th, and having a 'real' hitter 9th does mitigate this to some extent. I don't have the time to go into that before I go to work
This season, batting mostly third, Pujols has 187 plate appearances with runners on base. Albert has 7 plate appearances with the bases loaded. Pujols has played in 91 games this season and has 400 total plate appearances.
This season, batting mostly fourth, Holliday has 187 plate appearances with runners on base. Holliday has 10 plate appearances with the bases loaded. Holliday has played in 88 games and has 385 total plate appearances.
LaRussa's 'reasoning' hasn't worked out this season. Not to mention that 3 plate appearances over 90 or so games has a very tiny impact on the number of wins a teams has.
My feeling is that 'bad' managers can negatively affect a team much more than a 'good' manager can positively affect a team. I could play the part of 'bad' manager and make a lineup where my catcher is playing centerfield, pitcher is catching, etc. I could have my worst hitter leading off and my best hitter batting ninth. That team team would lose many more games than they would be expected to otherwise.
However, since most managers do things roughly the same, 'good' managers don't have as many options to improve a team. Given any random team most managers are going to pick roughly the same players to start, in roughly the same defensive positions, with roughly the same batting order. They are going to pinch hit at roughly the same times with roughly the same players. There's just not a chance for a manager to have that much of a positive impact on his team.
Well i certainly agree with most of what you're saying and i would definetly say that managers have a better chance at negatively affecting a team than doing something over the top that would help them win. I would also point out that the "very tiny impact" a manager has on his team could effectively cause his team to miss the playoffs, all he has to do is screw his team out of one game especially when you are currently leading the division by 1/2 a game. If anything i think LaRussa hurts his team by doing wierd things like have Pujols hit 3rd, the catcher a lot of times he has hit 6th, and the pitcher 8th is just well you know. If it were my team i would always have Holliday 3rd and Pujols 4th in the order and i would never hit my pitcher 8th unless it were that rare instance where the catcher had a worse batting average against the opposing starter than the pitcher then maybe i would consider it. Can we both agree on that lineup?
Well i certainly agree with most of what you're saying and i would definetly say that managers have a better chance at negatively affecting a team than doing something over the top that would help them win. I would also point out that the "very tiny impact" a manager has on his team could effectively cause his team to miss the playoffs, all he has to do is screw his team out of one game especially when you are currently leading the division by 1/2 a game. If anything i think LaRussa hurts his team by doing wierd things like have Pujols hit 3rd, the catcher a lot of times he has hit 6th, and the pitcher 8th is just well you know. If it were my team i would always have Holliday 3rd and Pujols 4th in the order and i would never hit my pitcher 8th unless it were that rare instance where the catcher had a worse batting average against the opposing starter than the pitcher then maybe i would consider it. Can we both agree on that lineup?
According the The Book (which I recommend every baseball fan read) the best hitters in the lineup should hit 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
There are a few reasons for this. The two most important are on base percentage and the number of at bats per position in the batting order.
The second one first. Each position in the batting order receives about 18 less at bats than the one previous over the course of a season. This is because the batter that makes the last out is fairly randomly distributed throughout the order. Sometimes it's the leadoff hitter, sometimes it's the #7 guy, etc...So you want you best hitters to get the most at bats, hence, they should bat at the top of the order.
Which one should bat where is mostly dependent on on base percentage and power. The batter that makes the least outs (highest on base percentage) should get the most at bats, meaning that he should lead off. But you don't want a guy with power hitting there since the guys making the most outs are batting at the bottom of the order (in front of the lead off guy). His home runs are more likely to come without anyone on base.
Your #2 hitter should be your best hitter (providing you have another power hitter). He needs a high on base percentage because he's getting a lot of at bats
The #3 hitter come up with a relatively low number of runners on base and in scoring position. Your #3 guy should be your 4th or 5th best hitter. He doesn't have a lot of guys to drive in, but he does get a lot of at bats.
The #4 hitter should be the best hitter with power. He's going to come up with runners on base. You don't necessarily want your best hitter here as he's going to get about 40 at bats less a season as your #2 hitter.
Or you could just read this since Sky is smarter and better at conveying information than I am.
I'm a fan of hitting the pitcher 8th. Since your best hitters are hitting #2, #4, and #1 having your worst hitter (pitcher) batting in front of them doesn't make any sense. Having a pitcher who gets about about 82% of the time vs a terrible hitter who might get out 70 - 75% of the time is a big difference in the number of runners on base.
Here's a fun toy to play with. Using On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage it calculates the number of runs a lineup is expected to score. It also finds the best and worst lineups. You'll be surprised at some of the lineups that it spits out. It's not perfect because it doesn't consider speed or handedness of the batter, but it gives an idea.
^^^ Wow you really analyze your baseball. I'm glad to see your views on all of that and respect your beliefs and i will check out the book when i get some time. One thing i could immediately think of when i read your last post is what would you do when your best hitter is also your best power hitter and the guy with the highest on base percentage? I don't know about this season but i'm certain that in previous seasons Pujols for example would have led the Cardinals in obp, slugging percentage, obps, batting average, hr's etc. so pretty much he was the best all around hitter, leadoff guy and power guy. So using him as an example using your beliefs where would you hit him in the lineup?? If i understood you correctly it sounds to me like the ideal spot for him would be 2nd to give him more at bats throughout the season. If you have some free time i would be interested in seeing your ideal Yankees, Mets and Cardinals lineups if you don't mind. You can pm me if you don't want to continue to post here. I don't care either way. Ttyl.
It is a little tricky when you have a guy like Pujols. The good thing is, it doesn't REALLY matter. The only big difference between this and conventional thinking is the #2 hitter. The Book says your #2 guy should be one of your best. Traditional thinking say that he should be a weak hitter who is just trying to get the leadoff guy into scoring position.
For kicks I'd bat the Cardinals like this.
Rasmus .361/.525
Holliday .387/.528
Ludwick .337/.485
Pujols .413/.578
Lopez .341/.398
Shumaker .320/.334
Molina .310/.311
PITCHER
Freese .360/.404
I'll put Pujols 4th because Rasums and Holliday are pretty good hitters who should give Albert plenty of at bats with guys on base. If the Cards didn't have a couple of good hitters to bat in front of Pujols I'd be tempted to bat him 2nd-just to get him more at bats.
I went with Rasmus leading off. He's getting on base and has some speed. Now, in reality I don't think Rasmus is as good as his numbers this year. I don't think he'll end the season with a .360 OBP. Closer to .340 I'd guess.
I bat Lopez behind Pujols but I could have gone with Freese. Two reasons. First, I think Freese is playing out of his ass right now. He's not a .360 OBP guy. I also like Lopez batting in front of Shumaker and Molina because he can run a little. It is more important to have speed on the bases in front of singles hitters instead of power hitters. A guy needs speed to score from 2nd on a single. He doesn't need speed to score from second on a double or homerun.
Freese I bat last. I don't think he's a .360 OBP guy, but I do think he's better than Shumaker and Molina. I'd like to have a better OBP guy hitting last because I have some powerful hitters at the top of the order. Better if they are batting with a guy on base sometimes.
My line up generated 5.02 runs per game
The best line up generated 5.1 runs per game
.08 * 162 = 13 runs. That's 13 more runs the best line up is expected to score over an entire season. About a run every two weeks. So, you can see it's not a huge difference.
The worst line up generated 4.38 runs a game
That comes out to 113 runs a season. But that lineup is ridiculously ridiculous
Quote:
Pitcher leading off
Molina
Ludwick
Shumaker
Lopez
Freese
Holliday
Pujols
Rasmus
Which further illustrates my point from earlier. No manager is going to bat the pitcher leadoff, so there is always room for a manager to do worse than his competition. Any reasonable lineup is going to be scoring 5 runs a game, so there isn't that much room to improve. Managers don't make that much of a positive difference
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