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I was discussing which remaining playoff team had the best starting rotation with some friends and thought I'd share here.
I did this by trying to calculate how many runs each teams' starters would be expected to save relative to the average starter in the post season.
I did this by:
1) Figuring the average number of innings per start for each starter
2) Using an average to FIP, xFIP, and tERA to estimate the average number of runs that each starter would be expected to give up per nine innings.
*each of the metrics has flaws but all have been shown to have better predictive value than ERA.
3) Increasing the NL starters predicted runs given up by .25 to account for differences between the leagues and the DH
4) Calculating how many runs each pitcher would be expected to save compared to the other playoff starters.
5) Adding the saved runs together for each team
The results are as follows: #1 Playoff Rotation: Texas Rangers: Expected to give up .21 runs less per start than the other rotations. Three of 4 starters at or below average. #2 Playoff Rotation: Philadelphia Phillies: Like the Rangers three very good starters. #3 Playoff Rotation: San Francisco Giants (NB4 "Biased!"): The most balanced rotation with no real weaknesses. #4 Playoff Rotation: New York Yankees: The weakest rotation with only CC coming in better than average.
*All data courtesy of Fangraphs.com
*negative numbers represent runs saved
A few notes on some of the players.
The three best starters: (no surprises)
Cliff Lee is expected to save .81 runs per start. Dude is freakin' awesome
Roy Halladay is expected to save .41 runs per start
Tim Lincecum is expected to save .22 runs per start
The three worst:
Tommy Hunter of the Rangers is expected to give back almost all of the runs Cliff saved, .72
AJ Burnett almost as bad at .62
Joe Blanton gives up half a run more than average
That's why these guys aren't expected to start more than one game.
Personally, not using any fancy stats, here are my rankings:
1. Phillies (can't beat a top 3 of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels)
2. Giants (Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez also a formidable top 3)
3. Rangers (Cliff Lee and pray for rain)
4. Yankees (CC can look like Cy Young one start, and Kyle Kendrick the next, Pettite can look masterful or mediocre, Hughes might be dependable, and Burnett is total garbage)
Personally, not using any fancy stats, here are my rankings:
1. Phillies (can't beat a top 3 of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels)
2. Giants (Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez also a formidable top 3)
3. Rangers (Cliff Lee and pray for rain)
4. Yankees (CC can look like Cy Young one start, and Kyle Kendrick the next, Pettite can look masterful or mediocre, Hughes might be dependable, and Burnett is total garbage)
You're vastly underrating Texas' Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson. They don't have the name value of Oswalt and Hamels and they don't get helped out by pitching in the NL in a pitcher's park like Cain and Sanchez, but they have had VERY good seasons.
Personally, not using any fancy stats, here are my rankings:
1. Phillies (can't beat a top 3 of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels)
2. Giants (Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez also a formidable top 3)
3. Rangers (Cliff Lee and pray for rain)
4. Yankees (CC can look like Cy Young one start, and Kyle Kendrick the next, Pettite can look masterful or mediocre, Hughes might be dependable, and Burnett is total garbage)
When did we last hear about the Yankees' awful pitching rotation? Now I remember. It was about a year ago.
When did we last hear about the Yankees' awful pitching rotation? Now I remember. It was about a year ago.
Burnett was decent last year, this year he's a trainwreck. That's a big minus over last year.
And if they do face the Phillies, who have replaced Lee with Halladay, brought in Oswalt, and with Hamels back to his 2008 form, it will be a tougher road for the Yanks. There won't be any Pedro Martinez this year.
Burnett was decent last year, this year he's a trainwreck. That's a big minus over last year.
And if they do face the Phillies, who have replaced Lee with Halladay, brought in Oswalt, and with Hamels back to his 2008 form, it will be a tougher road for the Yanks. There won't be any Pedro Martinez this year.
Good point. But I think the Giants will eliminate the Phils with superior pitching. And as for Burnett, he may not get a postseason start.
As his rate stats indicate, Wilson can be tough on many hitters. The average quality of opponent he faced was .252/.320/.387, but he held them to a .217/.311/.311 line.
Quote:
The average hitter against CC Sabathia this season hit .254/.324/.395 and he held them to a .239/.301/.355 line.
*Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage
This is a very interesting way to look at the stats, and I way I've never seen it approached before.
Dividing Wilson's batting average against by the average batting average he faced gives a result of .861
We can say that Wilson held opposing hitter to 86.1% of their batting average. Applying this division to each of the triple slash lines for both pitchers gives:
Wilson: 86.1/97.1/80.4
Sabathia: 94.1/92.9/89.9
Wilson was better at preventing hits and hits for power, while Sabathia was better at preventing runners in general.
Game Score Performances By Starters In The Post Season (Through the Giants/Phillies Game Three)
Giants:
Lincecum
96
58
Cain
62
75
Sanchez
80
56
Bumgarner
56
Average Game Score: 69
Philadelphia:
Halladay
94
52
Oswalt
47
78
Hammels
86
57
Average Game Score: 69
Texas:
Lee
82
90
73
Wilson
74
55
Lewis
63
52
Hunter
47
Average Game Score: 67
New York:
Sabathia
50
29
Pettitte
62
64
Hughes
74
14
Average Game Score: 48.8
Losers....
Atlanta AGS: 57.7
Tampa Bay AGS: 48.8
Cincinnati AGS: 44
Minnesota AGS: 36.3
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Now I remember.
It was about a year ago.
