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Does not 2010 scream "last hurrah" for superstardom for Konerko? The Sox are paying him the sort of salary that would be consistent with someone putting up a .977 OPS in each of the next three seasons. Is that a realistic expectation for someone who will be 35 years old in the first of those three seasons?
Konerko certainly picked the right year to have a career bust out season. There should be a name for this phenomena, the situation where some player in his early/mid 30's stages a career year just before he becomes a free agent. What all such players would probably have in common would be getting vastly overpaid in his next contract.
Does not 2010 scream "last hurrah" for superstardom for Konerko? The Sox are paying him the sort of salary that would be consistent with someone putting up a .977 OPS in each of the next three seasons. Is that a realistic expectation for someone who will be 35 years old in the first of those three seasons?
Konerko certainly picked the right year to have a career bust out season. There should be a name for this phenomena, the situation where some player in his early/mid 30's stages a career year just before he becomes a free agent. What all such players would probably have in common would be getting vastly overpaid in his next contract.
Paulie has been a hot/cold player his whole career. He is getting older, but PK has the type of game that might not fall off with age (at least not yet). It's not like he is a speed guy, he stays healthy, he approaches hitting like a science and has made a career of it. I don't see him getting MVP votes again, but I no way think he is washed up.
I agree it is weird to peak at 34, but why can't that be a good sign instead of a sign of impending doom? Maybe it just goes to show you he is a bit of an outlier for his career arc.
His contract isn't that bad either he gets 15 mil in year 1, defers 7 million of it until well after the 3 years have ran their course. So if he is terrible in 2 seasons from now, unloading him would not hurt that much. You basically gamble on him for the next year or two.
Last edited by Orangeish; 12-08-2010 at 10:38 AM..
I agree it is weird to peak at 34, but why can't that be a good sign instead of a sign of impending doom? Maybe it just goes to show you he is a bit of an outlier for his career arc.
His contract isn't that bad either he gets 15 mil in year 1, defers 7 million of it until well after the 3 years have ran their course. So if he is terrible in 2 seasons from now, unloading him would not hurt that much. You basically gamble on him for the next year or two.
Your optimism causes no harm in the context of advancing it on a net chatboard. Making roster decisions on the basis of such optimism I believe to be counter productive and far more likely to backfire on the club than it is to justify the faith.
If we summed your position as "It is worth the gamble because Konerko might justify it", then the proper evaluation of the matter would rest with "How probable is it that Konerko will justify it."
Age is a time bomb for professional athletes, most baseball players have reached a point of deteriorating skills by age 35 and do not duplicate their past success very frequently after that. The White Sox eisk would then be hoping for a long shot to come in...and that is fast track to ruin in gambling.
Your optimism causes no harm in the context of advancing it on a net chatboard. Making roster decisions on the basis of such optimism I believe to be counter productive and far more likely to backfire on the club than it is to justify the faith.
If we summed your position as "It is worth the gamble because Konerko might justify it", then the proper evaluation of the matter would rest with "How probable is it that Konerko will justify it."
Age is a time bomb for professional athletes, most baseball players have reached a point of deteriorating skills by age 35 and do not duplicate their past success very frequently after that. The White Sox eisk would then be hoping for a long shot to come in...and that is fast track to ruin in gambling.
Most players don't have a career year at age 34 either. A lot of players have reoccuring injuries that PK does not have. A lot of players base a big part of their game on speed/athleticism, which are the first attributes to decline, and Paulie does not have to worry about that.
Most players don't have a career year at age 34 either. A lot of players have reoccuring injuries that PK does not have. A lot of players base a big part of their game on speed/athleticism, which are the first attributes to decline, and Paulie does not have to worry about that.
How many players have a career year at age 34, and then continue to produce at that level after that age? Is it not better to sign a player just before he has a late stage career year than right after he has had it?
As for the business about Konerko having old player skills, that is not a good sign, quite the opposite. Players with speed and athelticism tend to have longer careers than do those who relied on "old player" skills from the start.
Players with speed and athelticism tend to have longer careers than do those who relied on "old player" skills from the start.
Show your work
I never used the phrase "old player" skills, not even sure what that means. For the short term stuff, his BABIP has been on the rise the last three years, he has been ahead of the curve on BB% since 03, his OBP been has been well above average for 7 straight seasons.
It is not my work, I am not a sabermetrician, I've just read and considered the work of those who are.
By happy coincidence, one such investigation, certainly not the first, came to my attention and I reported on it in the Derek Jeter thread. Forgive me for quoting myself, but I reproduce it here for you.
Quote:
In the recently published 2011 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, Tom Tango has an article called "Three Things I Wanted To Research." (pp.159-163)
The third of the three was the question: "Does A Bad Season At An Old Age Mean More Than At A Young Age?"...a project inspired by the Jeter situation.
He collected and studied players who had experienced a bad year following three good ones, using WAR standards (4.5 to 4.8 WAR for good, 1.1 to 1.2 for bad) to define good and bad. He discovered that there is validity for having greater concern when it happens to an older player.
In the fifth season, immediately following the bad 4th year, players under the age of 30 averaged 2.4 wins, players between 30 and 35 averaged 2.6 wins, and the 35 and older crowd averaged 1.3 wins.
Tango also looked at the outcomes following four consecutive good seasons, and the fifth season outcomes showed that the 35 and over group was still the most likely to to decline among them.
Tango sums things up with "...its not a matter of the most recent/bad season having more impact because the player is old. Its simply the age of the player which is the ominous sign."
I must credit Bill James for being the first to make me aware of the differing career lengths enjoyed by players with "old" and "young" sets of skills.
....but Paulie is coming off a good season. Of course age is scary and everyone breaks down eventually. PK has some things going for him though, that would suggest he still has a productive year or two left (these are stated in previous posts). which is why many people, including myself feel the gamble is justified.
Nobody is saying its not a gamble....BUT it's a +EV move to me, and thats all that matters.
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