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Old 12-21-2010, 08:43 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm2008 View Post
Agreed, but the proper comparison is where crawford was when he signed his contract and where Ichiro when he signed his. I think that comparison is in favor of crawford.
Which contract? The most recent ones for each? Crawford in the last few years has really made a name for himself. Ichiro was solid from the start. Can't blame Ichiro if he's been around a little longer and Crawford is only peaking now. How do we know that Carl will perform like he did in Tampa? Maybe the boston roid show will be too much for him like it was for Manny.
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Old 12-21-2010, 08:55 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Maybe the boston roid show will be too much for him like it was for Manny.
What?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm2008 View Post
Agreed, but the proper comparison is where crawford was when he signed his contract and where Ichiro when he signed his. I think that comparison is in favor of crawford.
You're the one that started comparing them. I just did so more in depth.

Ichiro's first MLB season was when he was 27. Crawford will be 30 next season, meaning that the last two seasons compare to Ichiro's first two seasons.

Crawford may have a higher peak than Ichiro, but it would be bucking the odds for him to be as productive in his mid to upper 30's as Ichiro.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:50 AM
 
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I believe if you give Crawford something he didn't get with the Rays (A good hitting coach), his game will improve.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Which contract? The most recent ones for each? Crawford in the last few years has really made a name for himself. Ichiro was solid from the start. Can't blame Ichiro if he's been around a little longer and Crawford is only peaking now. How do we know that Carl will perform like he did in Tampa? Maybe the boston roid show will be too much for him like it was for Manny.
Yes the most recent ones for each.

Can't blame Ichiro for what? Ichiro is good. Crawford is a little better which is why Crawford makes a little more money. Solid from the start doesn't mean anything. Who cares how good crawford was in 2001? Certainly doesn't mean anything when teams are looking to sign Crawford now. Ichiro was judged on his value at the time of the signing of the contract, the same way Crawford is. Crawford is better now than Ichiro then. People don't pay for the past, they pay for what they think will happen in the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Maybe the boston roid show will be too much for him like it was for Manny.
Aren't you a yankee fan? And Manny did pretty well in Boston as I recall.
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Old 12-22-2010, 04:57 PM
 
4,399 posts, read 10,634,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
What?



You're the one that started comparing them. I just did so more in depth.

Ichiro's first MLB season was when he was 27. Crawford will be 30 next season, meaning that the last two seasons compare to Ichiro's first two seasons.

Crawford may have a higher peak than Ichiro, but it would be bucking the odds for him to be as productive in his mid to upper 30's as Ichiro.
I don't see anything wrong with your comparison. I'm just pointing out Crawford's later years weight more heavily then his earlier ones, thats the jist I got from your post. Maybe I was mistaken.

Ichiro is 37 now and 34 when he signed the contract. Ichiro at 34 compared to Crawford at 30, is the comparisons since those are the actual ages they were signed for is the comparison. And Ichiro's contract was signed for years 34-39 Crawford's 30-37 and since the latter years are usually more valuable brings Crawford's value even more in line with Ichiro(and why his contract is justifiably more lucrative). It's not a stretch to say Crawford will be better from 32-37 than Ichiro 34-39. Which is the apples to apples comparison.

Last edited by jdm2008; 12-22-2010 at 05:12 PM..
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Old 12-22-2010, 05:12 PM
 
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Nice!
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Old 12-22-2010, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,235,519 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm2008 View Post
I don't see anything wrong with your comparison. I'm just pointing out Crawford's later years weight more heavily then his earlier ones, thats the jist I got from your post. Maybe I was mistaken.
No, you are absolutley correct. Of course more recent performance should be weighed more heavily.

Quote:
Ichiro is 37 now and 34 when he signed the contract. Ichiro at 34 compared to Crawford at 30, is the comparisons since those are the actual ages they were signed for is the comparison. And Ichiro's contract was signed for years 34-39 Crawford's 30-37 and since the latter years are usually more valuable brings Crawford's value even more in line with Ichiro(and why his contract is justifiably more lucrative). It's not a stretch to say Crawford will be better from 32-37 than Ichiro 34-39. Which is the apples to apples comparison.
The apples to apples comparison is what performance would reasonably be expected over the life of the contract and what is the market value for those skills over the life of the contract.

According to Cot's, Ichiro signed his contract prior to 08 with an Average Annual Value of $16.1 million for 5 years. Crawford signed his contract prior to 2011 with an AAV of about $20.3 million

According to Fangraphs, Ichiro has produced 12.8 WAR in the first 3 years of that contract. The market value of those wins has been $59.8 million. We can reverse engineer that to conclude that the market value of a win has been about $4.6 million.

With a market value of $4.6 million a win the Mariners must have expected Ichiro to be worth 3.5 wins per season (5 years * $16.1 million / 5 seasons). Ichiro has been better than that so far-4.3 WAR per season.

If we do the same with Crawford we get that the Red Sox expect him to be worth about 4.5 WAR per season ($20.3 million / $4.6 million).

Now, there should be some inflation factored in. I haven't done that, but that's the bones of the discussion.
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,235,519 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
With a market value of $4.6 million a win the Mariners must have expected Ichiro to be worth 3.5 wins per season (5 years * $16.1 million / 5 seasons).
Not sure what I was smokin' when I wrote this

What I meant was $16.1 (dollars)/$4.6 (Dollars/WAR) = 3.5 (WAR)
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Old 12-24-2010, 05:54 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,164 posts, read 15,088,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm2008 View Post
Yes the most recent ones for each.

Can't blame Ichiro for what? Ichiro is good. Crawford is a little better which is why Crawford makes a little more money. Solid from the start doesn't mean anything. Who cares how good crawford was in 2001? Certainly doesn't mean anything when teams are looking to sign Crawford now. Ichiro was judged on his value at the time of the signing of the contract, the same way Crawford is. Crawford is better now than Ichiro then. People don't pay for the past, they pay for what they think will happen in the future.



Aren't you a yankee fan? And Manny did pretty well in Boston as I recall.
Yes I am a Yankee fan and if you remember correctly it hasn't been proven that any yankees in the last 15 years used while in a Yankee uniform. Manny did with Boston as did Big Papi (also while with Boston) but to tell you the truth I was just being sarcastic and actually talking about being on the big stage where fans actually show up for the games. Honestly I think injuries will eventually be the downfall of Crawford. For that reason I didn't want the Yankees to pursue him. We definitely don't need another go around like when Pavano was on our team.
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Old 12-25-2010, 01:51 PM
 
4,399 posts, read 10,634,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Yes I am a Yankee fan and if you remember correctly it hasn't been proven that any yankees in the last 15 years used while in a Yankee uniform. Manny did with Boston as did Big Papi (also while with Boston) but to tell you the truth I was just being sarcastic and actually talking about being on the big stage where fans actually show up for the games. Honestly I think injuries will eventually be the downfall of Crawford. For that reason I didn't want the Yankees to pursue him. We definitely don't need another go around like when Pavano was on our team.
Jason Giambi testified under oath in front of a grand jury that he had taken steroids in 2003 while a yankee. Andy Pettite also admitted to using steroids in 2002 while he was a Yankee. Try again! This time without the pinstripe colored glasses.

Last edited by jdm2008; 12-25-2010 at 02:08 PM..
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