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Old 08-10-2011, 10:21 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Pitching Game Finder -- - Baseball-Reference.com

6 no decisions in which he pitched 7+ innings with 3 or less earned runs

So is that 11 non wins or 6 (ND/L)?

11 is even more insane
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:33 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly View Post
So is that 11 non wins or 6 (ND/L)?
6 no decisions and 5 losses in games where Hamels pitched 7 or more innings and game up 3 or fewer earned runs.

In 2010 there were:
1473 games where starters fulfilled those criteria.
901 times the pitcher was credited with a win.
237 times the pitcher was tagged with a loss.
That leaves 335 no decisions.

Hamels had 18 such games. 7 wins, 5 losses, and 6 no decisions.

Given the major league averages, we'd expect Hamels to have had 11 wins, 3 losses and 4 no decisions.

That would have changed his final line to 16 - 9 from 12 - 11. 16 wins would have tied him for 6th in the league.

Pitcher wins are a stupid stat

Last edited by filihok; 08-10-2011 at 10:42 PM..
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:48 PM
 
Location: The City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
6 no decisions and 5 losses in games where Hamels pitched 7 or more innings and game up 3 or fewer earned runs.

In 2010 there were:
1473 games where starters fulfilled those criteria.
901 times the pitcher was credited with a win.
237 times the pitcher was tagged with a loss.
That leaves 335 no decisions.

Hamels had 18 such games. 7 wins, 5 losses, and 6 no decisions.

Given the major league averages, we'd expect Hamels to have had 11 wins, 3 losses and 4 no decisions.

That would have changed his final line to 16 - 9 from 12 - 11. 16 wins would have tied him for 6th in the league.

Pitcher wins are a stupid stat
I'll take 18 such starts from a pitcher most years - One in 50 such starts without a win were Hamels' - 3 times the expected rate if I use some high level math


Thanks again
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:16 PM
 
Location: Tucson, AZ
1,697 posts, read 3,472,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Winners!!!!
Tim Wakefield. 6.3 innings, 10 hits, 2 home runs, 1 walk, 4 strike outs, 7 earned runs
Tommy Hansen 6 innings, 7 hits, 1 home run, 1 walk, 7 strike outs, 6 earned runs
JA Happ 5.7 innings, 7 hits, 2 home runs, 4 walks, 3 strike outs, 5 earned runs

Losers:0(
CJ Wilson 8 innings (complete game), 2 hits, 0 home runs, 1 walk, 8 strike outs, 0 earned runs
Tim Lincecum 7 innings, 5 hits, 1 home run, 4 walks, 7 strike outs, 1 earned runs

THT Awards

THT does an article every week about statistical absurdities. These games are from the week of 7/18 to 7/24.

I didn't include no decisions in outings like:
Phil Hughes 4.3 innings, 9 hits, 1 home run, 4 walks, 3 strike outs, 7 earned runs
Justin Masterson 7.7 innings, 4 hits, 0 home runs, 0 walks, 6 strike outs, 0 earned runs.

Any stat that values Masterson's and Hughes' games the same, and values those two games plus the games pitched by Wake, Hansen and Happ more than Wilson's or Lincecum's game is a crap stat.
You're so much better at explaining this stuff than me. Thanks for the digging.
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Old 08-11-2011, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Bel Air, California
23,769 posts, read 28,884,581 times
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Twins complete late trade with the Disabled Lists for slugger Justin Morneau for a Player-to-be-Named-Later. Help expected to arrive just in the nick of time for post season push.

Morneau delivers message to get back where he belongs | StarTribune.com
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Old 08-11-2011, 11:51 AM
 
Location: The City
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Yahoo! Sports Minute
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Old 08-11-2011, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,579 posts, read 86,642,947 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mb919 View Post
It's a flawed enough stat that it should never be used to argue for a pitchers effectiveness, or lack thereof. This is an example of that.
The year Gibson barely allowed an earned run per game, he was not the winner in more than 1/3 of his starts. (22-9-3ND)
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Old 08-11-2011, 11:13 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Houston is terrible.
Quote:
Houston Astros 69 - 93
Why is this team interesting? Honestly, they aren't. From top to bottom, this is the worst team in baseball. And from 'top to bottom' I mean they are the worst team in baseball each step of the way. It's a tossup between the Astros and the Royals for who will field the worst major league team this year. I give the Royals a slight advantage because of the possibilities that Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas bring. Since the Astros have the worst minor league system in baseball they have no similar players in waiting. This goes directly to GM Ed Wade who's done nothing to improve the team since taking over in 2007.

The Astros aren't completely devoid of talent. OFers Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn are solid players, but not terribly exciting-unless you really like Bourn's blazing speed. Pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are both better than average but neither figures to get much better than they showed last year.

Unfortunately for the Astros their #1 prospect, C Jason Castro:
A) figures to be more solid than star
and
B) had knee surgery and will likely miss the season.

The Astros have a couple of young players at the corner infield spots; 3B Chris Johnson and 1B Brett Wallace. Johnson put up good numbers in half a season last year but his BABIP was .387 and he struck out about 7 times as often as he walked-doesn't bode well for extended success. Wallace has been traded 3 times in the last 2 seasons; probably because once teams get a look at him up close they see that he can't hit at the big league level.

It's going to be a long time before the Astros are good again.
First, they are 38 and 80 and on pace for a 52 win season.

Second, today wasn't a good game for them
At the beginning of the 8th inning they were leading 5 - 1 and had a 96% win expectancy.
At the end of the 8th inning they were leading 5 -3 and had a 92% win expectancy.

At the beginning of the 9th they were still leading 5-3 and had a 90% win expectancy.
Kelly Johnson strikes out. 95% WE
Xavier Nady singles. 89% WE
Gerardo Parra strikes out. 2 down in the 9th, up by 2. 95% WE
Paul Goldschmidt hits a 2 run home run. Tie gime. 47% WE
Willie Bloomquist groundout. 50% WE

1-2-3 top of the 10th for Houston gives them a 35% WE going to the bottom of the 10th.
Ryan Roberts infield single. 28% WE for Houston
Justin Upton single. 18% WE for Houston
Montero flyout. 28% WE for Houston
Chris Young home run wins the game for the DBacks.

http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/20110811_Astros_Diamondbacks_0_20110811234614_lbig _.png (broken link)
Diamondbacks » Box Score » Thursday, August 11, 2011 | FanGraphs Baseball

Last edited by filihok; 08-11-2011 at 11:30 PM..
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Old 08-12-2011, 07:49 AM
 
Location: The City
22,379 posts, read 38,723,471 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
First, they are 38 and 80 and on pace for a 52 win season.

Second, today wasn't a good game for them
At the beginning of the 8th inning they were leading 5 - 1 and had a 96% win expectancy.
At the end of the 8th inning they were leading 5 -3 and had a 92% win expectancy.

At the beginning of the 9th they were still leading 5-3 and had a 90% win expectancy.
Kelly Johnson strikes out. 95% WE
Xavier Nady singles. 89% WE
Gerardo Parra strikes out. 2 down in the 9th, up by 2. 95% WE
Paul Goldschmidt hits a 2 run home run. Tie gime. 47% WE
Willie Bloomquist groundout. 50% WE

1-2-3 top of the 10th for Houston gives them a 35% WE going to the bottom of the 10th.
Ryan Roberts infield single. 28% WE for Houston
Justin Upton single. 18% WE for Houston
Montero flyout. 28% WE for Houston
Chris Young home run wins the game for the DBacks.


Diamondbacks » Box Score » Thursday, August 11, 2011 | FanGraphs Baseball

Two words - Ed Wade

But he has been very good to the Phils

I think he learned GM skills from watching Philly politics - Ed has done more for the Phils from houston than his tenure as GM in Philly
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Old 08-12-2011, 08:40 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,579 posts, read 86,642,947 times
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How does Carlos Lee keep flying under the radar? Nearly on a pace for a 7th 100-RBI season, which is HoF credentials (Mantle had 4), and he doesn't even get a mention in the Astros story.

Last edited by jtur88; 08-12-2011 at 08:54 AM..
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