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Old 08-26-2011, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Far from where I'd like to be
24,860 posts, read 30,161,465 times
Reputation: 35960
Guess I can't be mad at Jim Thome anymore ... You know how us Cleveland fans like to hold our grudges!

Welcome back, Jim!
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Old 08-26-2011, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,741 posts, read 36,442,720 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Back to the conversation at hand.
Carpenter's ERA on August 22: 3.57
Salas' ERA on Augst 22: 2.45

What does your book tell us about who should have pitched the ninth inning?

If Jay is the better choice to pinch hit because of a .301 batting average than Pujols and his .299 batting average, then wouldn't Salas be a better choice to pitch due to a much better ERA? You also implied that Rhodes and his 5.26 ERA would have been a better choice than Salas.


Yeah. So? You could write a blog, doesn't mean you're correct.
You just don't get it, do you? I can make anything look like good strategy, by cherry-picking the time-frame for bookending the stats I insist on using in order to make my wild guess look logical. That's the benefit of using NOTHING but a selected array of stats to analyze things such that you want them to show, and doggedly refusing to apply any common sense or real world application. If I wasted all my time crunching stat numbers in various permutation, I could find a time frame in which Carpenter is proved to be a better choice than Salas, proven by stats stats stats stats stats, which are indisputable and infallible, aren't they? Carpenter is pitching a shutout and is nowhere near his pitch count, so where is the wonderful stat that proves that at that point in time, somebody else is more likely to retire the next batter? In his previous start, Carpenter would have had his third straight win, except that the save was blown. By SALAS!

Your revisionist post has completely changed the parameters of the July 20 game. Jay was already in the game, not a PH option. Taking Jay out for Pujols weakened the defense, both in RF (Berkman for Jay) and 1B (Pujols for Berkman), with nothing gained offensively by the change in base-hit probability when one was needed. You've changed the game situation in your favor, and you still can't defend your argument. Fast forward to the Aug 22 game, we see that after LaRussa's idiotic lineup changes, who do the Cards send up to bat after Pujols in the bottom of the inning, now behind by a run? Holliday (.309) and Berkman (.290)? Nope. Patterson (.244) and Furcal (.206).

And, finally, no matter what you say, who lost the game on July 20? LaRussas's Cardinals. And who lost the game on August 22? LaRussa's Cardinals. You can't go back and add those games to the win column just by saying LaRussa made the moves that were statistically sound, He did not win them, partly, perhaps, because of his narcissistic and megalomaniacal insistence that he is a genius and has to tinker and micromanage every goddam thing.

Last edited by jtur88; 08-26-2011 at 09:17 AM..
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Old 08-26-2011, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,370,274 times
Reputation: 6513
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
You just don't get it, do you? I can make anything look like good strategy, by cherry-picking the time-frame for bookending the stats I insist on using in order to make my wild guess look logical. That's the benefit of using NOTHING but a selected array of stats to analyze things such that you want them to show, and doggedly refusing to apply any common sense or real world application. If I wasted all my time crunching stat numbers in various permutation, I could find a time frame in which Carpenter is proved to be a better choice than Salas, proven by stats stats stats stats stats, which are indisputable and infallible, aren't they?
Here is the part where I say that YOU are the one who doesn't get it and point out that you have done everything that you are accusing me of doing.

Statistics have to be used correctly to be of use.

Citing a player's batting average over the course of 700 plate appearance and claiming that it is representative of his skill level is not the correct use of that statistic.

How are you showing common sense saying that LaRussa is at fault for a fly ball triple by one of the Dodgers' weakest hitters falling between two outfielders against one of the Cardinals best pitchers?
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Old 08-26-2011, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,741 posts, read 36,442,720 times
Reputation: 28635
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Here is the part where I say that YOU are the one who doesn't get it and point out that you have done everything that you are accusing me of doing.

Statistics have to be used correctly to be of use.

Citing a player's batting average over the course of 700 plate appearance and claiming that it is representative of his skill level is not the correct use of that statistic.

How are you showing common sense saying that LaRussa is at fault for a fly ball triple by one of the Dodgers' weakest hitters falling between two outfielders against one of the Cardinals best pitchers?
Exactly what is the magic number, then? How many plate appearances constitute the ideal number that is representative of his skill level?

You tell me the number, and I'll use the statistic "correctly". No, it only suits your purposes to go to the situation, and choose the "correct number" that enables you to look like a LaRussa-Syndrome genius.

"One of the Cardinals best pitchers" is the one charged with the Blown Save in Carpenters last "win" just six days earlier. Defend that with your stats. While "one of the Cardinals best pitchers" was in fact, already pitching a shutout in the game in question. You just keep right on insisting that Miles still hits the triple, with Carpenter pitching, and that if he can hit a triple against Salas, he can hit it against anyone, because Salas is "one of" his best pitchers.

Do you want proof that I am using statistics correctly and you are using them incorrectly? Well, here is the proof: LAD 2, STL 1. A game result that depends on your obviously imperfect use of stats..

And this is not just the benefit of hindsight. Every fan in the ballpark booed LaRussa when he took Carpenter out (I was watching the game). Everyone in the building (except the Amazing LaRussa) knew that his entire bullpen totally sucks, and this was Blown Save number 23 (the fifth by Salas) waiting to happen. And, of course, it did.

Of course, it's not all LaRussa's fault. They traded Rasmus for Cory Patterson, instead of Heath Bell. The only thing that stands between the Cardinals and a 91-40 record is 23 blown saves. And you think it is "correct use of statistics" to bring in those relievers when a starter is pitching a shutout. Speaking of using stats correctly, has anyone ever pointed out to you that you cannot compare the ERAs of starters with relievers, because the game situation parameters are so different?

Last edited by jtur88; 08-26-2011 at 09:57 AM..
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,370,274 times
Reputation: 6513
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Exactly what is the magic number, then? How many plate appearances constitute the ideal number that is representative of his skill level?

You tell me the number, and I'll use the statistic "correctly". No, it only suits your purposes to go to the situation, and choose the "correct number" that enables you to look like a LaRussa-Syndrome genius.
When Samples Become Reliable | FanGraphs Baseball

Quote:
Without further delay, here are the results of his article as far as when certain statistics stabilize for individual hitters: 50 PA: Swing % 100 PA: Contact Rate 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA 200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB 250 PA: Flyball Rate 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate 550 PA: ISO Cutter went to 650 PA as his max, meaning that the exclusion of statistics like BA, BABIP, WPA, and context-neutral WPA indicates that they did not stabilize.
The reason that batting average takes so long to stabilize for an individual player is that it is highly dependent on things out of a player's control.

Quote:
"One of the Cardinals best pitchers" is the one charged with the Blown Save in Carpenters last "win" just six days earlier. Defend that with your stats. While "one of the Cardinals best pitchers" was in fact, already pitching a shutout in the game in question. You just keep right on insisting that Miles still hits the triple, with Carpenter pitching, and that if he can hit a triple against Salas, he can hit it against anyone, because Salas is "one of" his best pitchers.
No. I don't insist that Miles hits the triple against Carpenter. He probably doesn't.

The thing, though, is that he probably doesn't hit it against Salas either.

Quote:
Do you want proof that I am using statistics correctly and you are using them incorrectly? Well, here is the proof: LAD 2, STL 1. A game result that depends on your obviously imperfect use of stats..
And you accused me of using statistics incorrectly?

No one is saying that using statistics can give you 100% perfect ability to predict the future. Of course not. That's idiotic.

The idea of using statistics is to give you the most likely outcome.

Imagine 2 tubes filled with 10 golf balls. These tubes release a golf ball when you activate a lever on the tube.
The first tube contains 9 red, and 1 blue golf ball.
The second tube contains 1 red and 9 blue golf balls.
If you select a tube and receive a red golf ball, you win; a blue ball-you lose.

I would select the first tube, as it has the highest probability of producing a red ball.

Perhaps I still get a blue ball, but my logic in making that choice was sound.

Which tube would you select?
From your participation in this discussion it sounds as if you would let someone else choose. If that person received a blue ball you would criticize the decision and claim that you would have selected from the other tube. If that person received a red ball, you would say that you would have also chosen that tube.

EDIT:
Quote:
Speaking of using stats correctly, has anyone ever pointed out to you that you cannot compare the ERAs of starters with relievers, because the game situation parameters are so different?
I hardly use ERA at all except when it appears that that is the intellectual level of the person with whom I am discussing baseball. I'd be content to never see ERA cited again-as well as saves and blown saves.

Last edited by filihok; 08-26-2011 at 10:16 AM..
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,370,274 times
Reputation: 6513
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Of course, it's not all LaRussa's fault. They traded Rasmus for Cory Patterson, instead of Heath Bell.
Salas ERA = 2.37
Bell ERA = 2.55

I fail to see how you think that move would help the Cardinals

Quote:
The only thing that stands between the Cardinals and a 91-40 record is 23 blown saves

Even as stupid a statistic saves and blown saves are:
The average NL team in 2011 has a 2/1 save to blown save ratio. The Cardinals have a 3/2 save to blown save ration.

If the Cards had a league average save to blown save ratio they would have a 72 - 59 record.
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,741 posts, read 36,442,720 times
Reputation: 28635
You hate the ERA, and now you have used it in two consecutive posts to defend your argument that Salas is a better pitcher than Carpenter, even when Carpenter is having a good night. And Salas has blown saves in two Carpenter wins in a row. I understand now how you decide to love or hate certain satistics. You hate blown saves, in order to preserve the your myth that a manager who keeps bringing in relievers who have 23 blown saves is using stats correctly.

Carpenter is 7-1 since June 23, and is pitching a 99-pitch shutout, and has been relieved only 3 times in his previous 26 starts after less than 100 pitches. In that same span of time, Salas has been charged with 5 losses or blown saves. And you want Salas, and you have statistics to prove it. Jesus F. Christ.

Last edited by jtur88; 08-26-2011 at 10:57 AM..
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,370,274 times
Reputation: 6513
Quote:
I hardly use ERA at all except when it appears that that is the intellectual level of the person with whom I am discussing baseball.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Salas ERA = 2.37
Bell ERA = 2.55

I fail to see how you think that move would help the Cardinals
.
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,370,274 times
Reputation: 6513
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
You hate the ERA, and now you have used it in two consecutive posts to defend your argument that Salas is a better pitcher than Carpenter, even when Carpenter is having a good night. And Salas has blown saves in two Carpenter wins in a row.
Quote:
I hardly use ERA at all except when it appears that that is the intellectual level of the person with whom I am discussing baseball.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Salas ERA = 2.37
Bell ERA = 2.55

I fail to see how you think that move would help the Cardinals
.



Quote:
I understand now how you decide to love or hate certain satistics. You hate blown saves, in order to preserve the your myth that a manager who keeps bringing in relievers who have 23 blown saves is using stats correctly.

Who else is he going to bring in? He has the relievers he has.
Leaving the starters in may, or may not, lead to more late inning losses.
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Old 08-26-2011, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Behind you
389 posts, read 362,013 times
Reputation: 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohiogirl81 View Post
Guess I can't be mad at Jim Thome anymore ... You know how us Cleveland fans like to hold our grudges!

Welcome back, Jim!
But how do the Twins fans feel about this? I guess their season is done anyways, but it always hurts giving up a huge leader like that for some AA pitcher that probably wont do anything but help the Rock Cats win an Eastern League Championship or something.
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