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OK Filihok. You seem to have a crystal ball and rely on what WILL happen, versus what IS happening. I can't argue with your clairvoyance. Hard for me to prove that something WON'T happen.
I could make lots of empty projections too, but I won't.
On thing I will admit is that Bard did better last night than I expected. He started out shaky and got behind on hitters a little too often, but his walks were down and he went 7 innings on less than 100 pitches. If he keeps this level of performance up, then I could be wrong about him.
Having said that, I still think Cook needs to be with the big team. Maybe Buchholz goes back down or to the pen and works out his issues.
On thing I will admit is that Bard did better last night than I expected. He started out shaky and got behind on hitters a little too often, but his walks were down and he went 7 innings on less than 100 pitches. If he keeps this level of performance up, then I could be wrong about him.
Having said that, I still think Cook needs to be with the big team. Maybe Buchholz goes back down or to the pen and works out his issues.
The problem with a reliever being converted to a starter is that even if you stretch them out, they usually will wear down later in the season because they are not used to all the innings even if they came up as a starter originally.
OK Filihok. You seem to have a crystal ball and rely on what WILL happen, versus what IS happening. I can't argue with your clairvoyance.
I think that you are doing the same.
Perhaps I have misunderstood your position but I thought that you were saying that Cook WILL (in the future) pitch well enough to hold down the 5th starter position and Bard WILL (in the future) be more valuable to the Red Sox as a late inning reliever. Am I incorrect?
Projection systems do attempt to look into the future.
Fangraphs player pages have data from 5 projection systems included.
For Cook the projections systems have him with an average ERA of 4.74
For Bard the projections systems have him with an average ERA of 3.51 as a starter and 3.43 as a reliever.
I feel that, all else being equal, a team that gives up less runs than another team will be better. Do you agree?
Assuming 150 IP for Cook as a starter with a 4.74 ERA and 70 innings pitched and a 3.43 ERA for Bard we get the Red Sox giving up 106 runs between the two.
Assuming 150 IP for Bard as a starter with a 3.51 ERA as a starter we get the Red Sox giving up 59 runs.
For the Red Sox to be better off with Bard starting they only need to find a reliver capable of pitching 70 innings while giving up less than 47 runs. That's a 6.04 ERA.
The average major league reliver last season had a 3.69 ERA.
Perhaps you think the 3.51 ERA for Bard as a starter is too optimistic. I do. Suppose Bard has an ERA of 4.00. That'd have the Red Sox giving up 67 runs. Under these assumptions they'd need a reliver who gave up less than 39 runs in 70 innings. That's a 5.01 ERA.
Bard plus a well below average reliever is still more likely to give up less runs than Cook as a starter and Bard as a reliver.
Harang is similar. Compare his projected numbers
8 - 9 134 innings, 4.31 ERA to these 4 pitchers
Aaron Cook: 4 - 5 88 innings 4.69 ERA. Signed to a minor league deal
Paul Maholm: 8 - 9 159 innings, 4.23 ERA. Signed for 1 year $4.5 million
Jason Marquis: 8 - 8 129 innings, 4.33 ERA. Signed for 1 year $3 million
Joel Pineiro: 8 - 9 141 innings, 4.29 ERA. Signed to a minor league deal
How are these guys significantly different than Harang?
I just disagree that he is better than Bard and that the Sawks would be better with Cook in the rotation and Bard in the bullpen.
You always have to give a guy a chance. Schilling was a bum when he started with houston but eventually became a much better pitcher.
Arron cook is 33 years, and hasn't been good the past 2 years. I'd say he's had plenty of chances.
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