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Old 04-19-2011, 04:46 AM
 
Location: Asheville
7,554 posts, read 7,103,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Team win-loss percentage in Matsuzaka's starts:
2007 .531
2008 .793
2009 .417
2010 .600
2011 0 - 2
CAREER: .600

If the Red Sox had 5 Matsuzaka's in their starting rotation, and if they continued to win games at the same rate they have been winning his starts they would be a (.600*162) 97 win team.
no they wouldn't, they would have 7 burned out bullpen arms by the end of May.

A typical Dice-K start is around 110 pitches and gone by the end of the 5th.

He's got good stuff but he hasn't trusted it, and he often gives the hitters to much respect and because of that he's often in a 2-0 or 3-0 hole.

The last two starts Dice has gone after hitters, so perhaps our new pitching coach Curt Young is getting through to him.

I'm hoping that's the case.
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Old 04-19-2011, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aardvarks View Post
no they wouldn't, they would have 7 burned out bullpen arms by the end of May.
The Red Sox win when Dice-K starts.

Quote:
A typical Dice-K start is around 110 pitches and gone by the end of the 5th.
Dice-K has 101 career starts and has pitched 599.3 innings.

That's 5.93 innings per start. Which gets him to the sixth inning, not the 5th.

He's thrown 10317 pitches in those 101 starts, which is 102.1 per start

Quote:
He's got good stuff but he hasn't trusted it, and he often gives the hitters to much respect and because of that he's often in a 2-0 or 3-0 hole.
In his career Dice-K has faced 2600 batters.

he has gone 2 - 0 to 399 hitters; that's 15% of the time.
He has gone 3 - 0 to 125 hitters; that's 5% of the time

Daisuke Matsuzaka Career Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com
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Old 04-20-2011, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Asheville
7,554 posts, read 7,103,176 times
Reputation: 6939
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
The Red Sox win when Dice-K starts.



Dice-K has 101 career starts and has pitched 599.3 innings.

That's 5.93 innings per start. Which gets him to the sixth inning, not the 5th.

He's thrown 10317 pitches in those 101 starts, which is 102.1 per start



In his career Dice-K has faced 2600 batters.

he has gone 2 - 0 to 399 hitters; that's 15% of the time.
He has gone 3 - 0 to 125 hitters; that's 5% of the time

Daisuke Matsuzaka Career Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com
I'll start with the 2-0, 3-0. So your suggesting Dice-K has been a pitcher who goes after hitters? you do know his career BB rate is aproaching 5 walks per 9innings? are you trying to be a a-hole? OK so he often goes 2-1, 3-1 on hitters.

pitches per game, again whats the the point I guessed 110, you corrected it with 101. Big deal

You had one valid point, he's a 6 inning pitcher instead of a 5 inning pitcher.

Fili I know you're a stat geek, I don't have a problem with stat geeks, many of my friends are stat geeks.

and i remember all of the stat geeks being in 100% agreement about Dice-K's 2008 season.

I heard words like it's an abberation, he was very lucky, it's an outliar, he'll never be that good again, his BABIP was too low, and his strand rate was too high.

and yet your using 2008 as exhibit A, for why the Sox would win 97 game if they had 5 dice-k's.

using your chart, the Sox won 80% of his games that yr. No more that 60% any other year.

There's a reason the Sox have been contimplating giving Wakefield his rotation spot.
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Old 04-20-2011, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardvarks View Post
I'll start with the 2-0, 3-0. So your suggesting Dice-K has been a pitcher who goes after hitters? you do know his career BB rate is aproaching 5 walks per 9innings? are you trying to be a a-hole? OK so he often goes 2-1, 3-1 on hitters.
I didn't suggest anything. I simply stated the facts. Here's some more

Dice-K: 3-0=33.7, 2-0=107.5, 3-1=73.8, 2-1=162.9
League: 3-0=34.0, 2-0=101.0, 3-1=62.5, 2-1=145.0

That shows the number of times per 700 PA's Dice-K and the league go to the following counts.

So, yeah, Dice-K goes to a 3-1 count 11 times more a season than the average pitcher. That's about 1 more 3-1 count every three games.

Quote:
pitches per game, again whats the the point I guessed 110, you corrected it with 101. Big deal

You had one valid point, he's a 6 inning pitcher instead of a 5 inning pitcher.
110 pitches per 5 innings is a lot different than 101 pitches per 6 innings.

Quote:
and i remember all of the stat geeks being in 100% agreement about Dice-K's 2008 season.

I heard words like it's an abberation, he was very lucky, it's an outliar, he'll never be that good again, his BABIP was too low, and his strand rate was too high.
All true

Quote:
and yet your using 2008 as exhibit A, for why the Sox would win 97 game if they had 5 dice-k's.
Because the Red Sox have won 60% of Dice-K's starts in his career.

.6*162=97

YEAR; IP FIP
2007; 205, 4.23
2008; 168, 4.03
2009; 59, 5.09
2010; 154, 4.05

Dice-K has been basically the same pitcher every season except 2009 when he missed a lot of time to injury.

The only year the Red Sox won significantly less than 60% of his starts was 2009 when he was injured and pitched like crap.

There were super high expectations for Dice-K when the Sox signed him. He didn't live up to those expectations, but all the "Dice-K is crap" noise coming out of Boston is ridiculous.

In 4 seasons so far Dice-K has had two much better than average seasons (2007 & 2008), an average season (2010) and an injured season (2009).

Take any 4 year stretch out of a random pitcher and you'll often get a lot worse results than that.
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Old 04-21-2011, 05:31 PM
 
Location: Asheville
7,554 posts, read 7,103,176 times
Reputation: 6939
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
I didn't suggest anything. I simply stated the facts. Here's some more

Dice-K: 3-0=33.7, 2-0=107.5, 3-1=73.8, 2-1=162.9
League: 3-0=34.0, 2-0=101.0, 3-1=62.5, 2-1=145.0

That shows the number of times per 700 PA's Dice-K and the league go to the following counts.

So, yeah, Dice-K goes to a 3-1 count 11 times more a season than the average pitcher. That's about 1 more 3-1 count every three games.



110 pitches per 5 innings is a lot different than 101 pitches per 6 innings.



All true



Because the Red Sox have won 60% of Dice-K's starts in his career.

.6*162=97

YEAR; IP FIP
2007; 205, 4.23
2008; 168, 4.03
2009; 59, 5.09
2010; 154, 4.05

Dice-K has been basically the same pitcher every season except 2009 when he missed a lot of time to injury.

The only year the Red Sox won significantly less than 60% of his starts was 2009 when he was injured and pitched like crap.

There were super high expectations for Dice-K when the Sox signed him. He didn't live up to those expectations, but all the "Dice-K is crap" noise coming out of Boston is ridiculous.

In 4 seasons so far Dice-K has had two much better than average seasons (2007 & 2008), an average season (2010) and an injured season (2009).

Take any 4 year stretch out of a random pitcher and you'll often get a lot worse results than that.
how can you be a much better than average pitcher when your averaging 6 innings a start and averaging 9 batters to reach base per start? his 2007 season was decent and his 2008 was great.

He hasn't done Jack since.

he looked good the other day though.
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Old 04-21-2011, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Asheville
7,554 posts, read 7,103,176 times
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In other news the Sox finally won a game on the road.

and they have won 5 of there last 6
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Old 04-21-2011, 08:23 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardvarks View Post
how can you be a much better than average pitcher when your averaging 6 innings a start and averaging 9 batters to reach base per start? his 2007 season was decent and his 2008 was great.
Most people massively overrate how good the average pitcher is.

I posted this a while ago
Filihok: What is an ace?

Quote:
The average 'ace' had a season line of: 14 - 10 3.23 ERA in 32 starts, 212 innings, 65 walks and 192 strike outs.

The average #2 had a season line of: 12 - 11 3.58 ERA in 31 starts, 193 innings, 62 walks and 148 strike outs.

The average #3 had a season line of: 10 - 8 3.99 ERA in 27 starts, 160 innings, 50 walks, 126 strike outs.

The average #4 had a season line of: 8 - 8 4.51 ERA in 23 starts, 135 innings, 45 walks, 95 strike outs.

The average #5 had a season line of: 6 - 7 4.52 ERA in 18 starts, 102 innings, 35 walks, 72 strike outs.

Adding up all the starts made by the top 5 starts gives 130 starts. That means that an average team can expect 32 starts made by pitchers other than the top 5.

These pitchers had an average season line of: 2 - 4 6.18 ERA in 8 starts, 40 innings, 19 walks, 28 strike outs.
EDIT: Using weighted averages the average pitcher in 2010 did this:
9 - 8 4.35 28 starts, 168 innings, 58 walks, 131 strike outs

2010 was nicknamed 'The Year of the Pitcher'

League ERA
2010: 4.08
2009: 4.32
2008: 4.32
2007: 4.47

So it figures that each level of pitcher would perform worse in 2007-2009 than they did in 2010.

Dice-K's ERA in 2010 was 4.69 well higher than the average but, ERA is terrible for determining how well a pitcher pitched.

I've posted this video. It does a decent job of explaining why.

YouTube - FIP: A New ERA

Also, Dice-K pitches about half of his games in Fenway. Fenway is one of the highest offense parks in baseball. Any pitcher who pitches in Fenway is going to inflated numbers.

In 2010 Dice-K put up these numbers
9 - 6 4.60 25 starts, 154 innings, 74 walks, 133 strike outs. Pretty similar to the average pitcher

Without going through the entire rigamarole, according to FanGraphs in
2007: Dice-K allowed 39 less runs than a replacement pitcher. 29th best in the league.
2008: Dice-K allowed 33 less runs than a replacement pitcher. 41st best in the league.
2009: Dice-K allowed 6 less runs than a replacement pitcher. Not going count all of those guys.
2010: Dice-K allowed 24 less runs than a replacement pitcher. 70th best in the league.
2007-20010: Dice-K allowed 102 less runs than a replacement pitcher. 44th best over that time period.

Last edited by filihok; 04-21-2011 at 08:43 PM..
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Old 04-21-2011, 09:06 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Dice-K doesn't have a pitch like this though



Yikes!

99 miles per hour with Buggs Bunny style movement.

White Sox pitcher Brandon McCarthy was impressed.



over a foot of horizontal movement.

Last edited by filihok; 04-21-2011 at 09:21 PM..
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Old 04-23-2011, 02:14 AM
 
Location: Asheville
7,554 posts, read 7,103,176 times
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yet another win for the Sox

and this time they beat Dan Haren.

after starting 0-6, they're now 8-11
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Old 04-23-2011, 07:30 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
I had the Red Sox projected to win 95 out of 162 games this year-a .586 winning percentage. If the Red Sox are a team capable of winning 58.6% of their games...

They've lost 6. So they are now expected to win [.586*(162-6)] 92 games.

Does it hurt? Yeah. Especially in a division that's likely to be as close as the AL East. Are they out of it? Not by a long shot
(162-(8+11))*.586)=92 expected wins for the season.

This is why there's no reason to overreact early in the season and start firing people for no reason
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