Official 2011 World Series Thread: Rangers vs Cards! (games, record, Brewers)

[Bondurant]

Rangers in 5.

[MountainBiking]

I want the Cardinals to win (as I despise the Rangers and Washington the manager). As such, the Rangers are just too powerful for the mediocre St. Louis pitching. The whole Cardinal line-up has to step up against the Rangers' starting pitching. The Rangers can easily sweep this series but like someone else above mentioned stranger things have happend.

-Cheers.

[filihok]

World Series Projections: Texas over St. Louis in Five - Beyond the Box Score

As of right now, all four St. Louis winning outcomes are less likely than all four Texas winning outcomes.
That means we expect a Texas sweep before we expect a Cardinals win in seven games.

Point of fact: I did not expect the Cardinals to be here, not in August, not in September, not last week. My simulator didn't think any more highly of them. Yet, here we are.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by filihok

World Series Projections: Texas over St. Louis in Five - Beyond the Box Score

I've not the enrgy to go searching for it, but you had a recent post where you correctly explained that the playoffs are a crap shoot because we are attempting to employ data compiled from 162 games to forecast the outcome of short series.

That I have been preaching for decades, so I appreciated your posting it.

But...I find it difficult to reconcile the knowledge that it is a crap shoot with posting the above odds.

So...which is it? Crap shoot or scientific determination? What is the worth of those odds if it is a crap shoot?

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

I've not the enrgy to go searching for it, but you had a recent post where you correctly explained that the playoffs are a crap shoot because we are attempting to employ data compiled from 162 games to forecast the outcome of short series.

That I have been preaching for decades, so I appreciated your posting it.

But...I find it difficult to reconcile the knowledge that it is a crap shoot with posting the above odds.

So...which is it? Crap shoot or scientific determination? What is the worth of those odds if it is a crap shoot?

Originally Posted by filihok

Statistical analysis can tell you the most likely outcomes.

But, for me at least, the randomness of baseball is what makes it so interesting.

The Rangers are better than the Cardinals.

If the Rangers and Cardinals could play 100 7-game series, the Rangers would win about 72 of those series.

But, the Rangers and Cardinals are only playing 1 7-game series. It might be one of those 72, but it might be one of the other 28.

[The Cash Register]

Rangers will celebrate at home. Win the World Series in 5 games.

Or at least I hope so.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by The Cash Register

Rangers will celebrate at home. Win the World Series in 5 games.

Or at least I hope so.

That's the most likely outcome, according to BtB

[square peg]

3 of the last 7 series have been sweeps. 3 others went 5 games and 1 made it to 6. The team that won the first game won 6 of 7 of those series with '09 being the exception when the Phillies struck early against the Yankees. Apparently losing game 1 can set a team back on its heels in a bad way - at least in the above example.

These teams all went through hell (figuratively) to arrive in a WS and then one of them just seems to run out of gas. I hope that is not this year's case. There's nothing like watching two heavyweights slug it out. Going in, I'd give the edge to Cards.

[chickenfriedbananas]

I'm a lifelong Cardinals fan, but realistically, they've got to be considered an underdog against the Rangers. The Rangers have been the best team in baseball the last two years; it was just unfortunate for them that they ran into a buzzsaw of a pitching staff in the SF Giants last season. In terms of balance, though, they're the most balanced team over the most recent two year stretch. Without the shut-it-down pitching that the Giants had last year, it's tough to bet against Texas in this year's WS.

But there is a way the Cardinals can win. I don't think the Cardinals can count on running up the score against the Rangers like they did against Milwaukee, but they can score runs early and hope that their bullpen can hold it late. They also need to hope that Carp can be counted on for at least one 8-inning game, and they'd prefer it even more if they can somehow get Edwin Jackson or Jaime Garcia back on track for at least a game. The Cards are underdogs for sure, but they can win it.

[chickenfriedbananas]

Originally Posted by square peg

3 of the last 7 series have been sweeps. 3 others went 5 games and 1 made it to 6. The team that won the first game won 6 of 7 of those series with '09 being the exception when the Phillies struck early against the Yankees. Apparently losing game 1 can set a team back on its heels in a bad way - at least in the above example.

These teams all went through hell (figuratively) to arrive in a WS and then one of them just seems to run out of gas. I hope that is not this year's case. There's nothing like watching two heavyweights slug it out. Going in, I'd give the edge to Cards.

I don't think losing game one is statistically significant in and of itself, but it can have an impact depending on the pitching match-ups. If the Cardinals drop game one, that means they go into game two knowing they've just lost with their ace on the mound. And they go out there knowing that they have to turn it over to a starting rotation that can't even make it past the fourth inning. That's why, as much as I've loved this amazing run, I can't help but think that, sooner or later, the laws of probability are going to catch up with the Cardinals. There's a reason why the Cardinals are the first team in 100+ years of postseason play to win a post season series without a starter going past the fifth...the reason is because it's damn hard to pull it off even once. Pulling it off twice would be almost unthinkable. Whatever, I've just enjoyed the ride, especially knowing that this is LaRussa's, Duncan's, and Pujols' last year in a Cards uniform. It would be unbelievable if they were to pull off the WS title.