Official 2011 World Series Thread: Rangers vs Cards! (strategy, star, game)

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by filihok

Statistical analysis can tell you the most likely outcomes.

But, for me at least, the randomness of baseball is what makes it so interesting.

You neglected to point out, ten days ago, the "statistical analysis" of the Cardinals bullpen, which would perform so admirably, despite the woeful job and 30 blown saves during the regular season, which somehow must have been excluded from the statistical analysis that led to the "most likely outcome" that that they would be virtually unhittable in the post season.

Statistical analysis is BS, and becomes increasingly useless the shorter the series.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by jtur88

You neglected to point out, ten days ago, the "statistical analysis" of the Cardinals bullpen, which would perform so admirably, despite the woeful job and 30 blown saves during the regular season, which somehow must have been excluded from the statistical analysis that led to the "most likely outcome" that that they would be virtually unhittable in the post season.

Statistical analysis is BS, and becomes increasingly useless the shorter the series.

Speaking of BS, are we now to believe that the previously wretched bullpen performance which you blamed on LaRussa in your lengthy serial of posts on the art of mismangement, have self corrected despite LaRussa? Or did Tony suddenly gain 50 IQ points over the past month?

[PDD]

I picked the Cards because I like real baseball where pitchers have to hit.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by jtur88

You neglected to point out, ten days ago, the "statistical analysis" of the Cardinals bullpen, which would perform so admirably, despite the woeful job and 30 blown saves during the regular season, which somehow must have been excluded from the statistical analysis that led to the "most likely outcome" that that they would be virtually unhittable in the post season.

That makes no sense.
By that, I mean it looks like you stuck a bunch of words together without regard for grammatical rules or a coherent thought.

Statistical analysis is BS, and becomes increasingly useless the shorter the series.

If statistical analysis is BS, why do you post so many statistics?

You did back your way into a correct statement here though.

Sample size is important.

If we give Albert Pujols 600 plate appearances, we know he's going to get on base about 40% of the time. Have a slugging percentage of about .600. Strike out about 9% of the tie. Walk around 15% of the time. Hit a line drive 20% of the time. Hit a groundball 40% of the time. And hit a flyball 40% of the time.

If we give Albert Pujols 1 plate appearance, well, we don't really know what's going to happen.

If we give Albert 4-7 games worth of plate appearances, we also don't know what's going to happen.

So, yeah, sample size is important.

Congrats, you've grasped day one of stats 101

[migol84]

I'm confused. Why do the Cardinals have the home advantage when the Rangers have the better record? That just doesn't seem fair.

The hell! I had no idea, even the Rays had home advantage when the Rangers had a better record. Rangers led their division, while Rays and Cardinals did not. What the hell?!

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by migol84

I'm confused. Why do the Cardinals have the home advantage when the Rangers have the better record? That just doesn't seem fair.
?!

Blame it on Tyler Clippard

[migol84]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

Blame it on Tyler Clippard

Who is that and what's he responsible for?

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

Speaking of BS, are we now to believe that the previously wretched bullpen performance which you blamed on LaRussa in your lengthy serial of posts on the art of mismangement, have self corrected despite LaRussa? Or did Tony suddenly gain 50 IQ points over the past month?

How short a memory you have. I never blamed the bullpen on LaRussa. I blamed LaRussa for taking out a pitcher pitching a shutout after 90 pitches and bringing in that bullpen which had already blown 20-some saves.

Originally Posted by filihok

That makes no sense.
By that, I mean it looks like you stuck a bunch of words together without regard for grammatical rules or a coherent thought.

If statistical analysis is BS, why do you post so many statistics?

Because statistical analysis is the only language you understand, and to a limited extent, if used cautiously in combination with common sense, can be useful. English is not a language you understand, or else you would recognize that my sentence was perfectly grammatical, and your failure to comprehend it is your failing, not mine. Coherent thought is more than just blind allegiance to statistics. (The double-'that' was a typo that escaped my deletion, but would not have thrown off a reasonable reader.)

[filihok]

Originally Posted by jtur88

How short a memory you have. I never blamed the bullpen on LaRussa. I blamed LaRussa for taking out a pitcher pitching a shutout after 90 pitches and bringing in that bullpen which had already blown 20-some saves.



Because statistical analysis is the only language you understand, and to a limited extent, if used cautiously in combination with common sense, can be useful. English is not a language you understand, or else you would recognize that my sentence was perfectly grammatical, and your failure to comprehend it is your failing, not mine. Coherent thought is more than just blind allegiance to statistics. (The double-'that' was a typo that escaped my deletion, but would not have thrown off a reasonable reader.)

I actually speak pretty decent Swedish, as well as having dabled in Danish, French, Arabic, Greek, Russian and American Sign Language. Perhaps one of those languages would put us on more equal footing.

But, for the sake of actually talking about something related to baseball, let's say that I am incapable of understanding English to the degree necessary to comprehend your post.

As I attempt to do when I am discussing a statistical point I break down my thought process into simple steps so that the reader can understand even if they are not as well versed in statistics as I am. So, may I humbly request, that you explain your previous post in language more suited to someone of my limited ability to comprehend English.

While you are at it could I also beg upon you to explain how the Cardinals bullpen, the one that managed to blow 20 or 30 or 100000 saves this season, has pitched so effectively this postseason.

During the season, the bullpen pitched roughly 1/3 of the Cards' total innings. In the series against the Brewers (I have heard, though I haven't checked the data myself) the bullpen pitched over 50% of the total innings.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by migol84

I'm confused. Why do the Cardinals have the home advantage when the Rangers have the better record? That just doesn't seem fair.

The hell! I had no idea, even the Rays had home advantage when the Rangers had a better record. Rangers led their division, while Rays and Cardinals did not. What the hell?!

This time it counts!

The league that wins the All-Star game gets home field advantage in the World Series