2012 ZiPS projections (wild card, win, games, manager)

[filihok]

Originally Posted by kidphilly

What about Papelbon?

Also many rumors that Oswalt and/or Madsen could be back - any word on them

Also am curious on Stutes

All (except Papelbon, he's listed with Boston) are available by clicking the link.

Oswalt checks in at 8% above average, but with some injury concerns limiting him to 150 innings.
Stutes is 6% below average with way too many walks

Madsen is an excellent reliever at 32% above average.
Papelbon comes in at 52% above average, before figuring his move to the NL

[filihok]

BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2012 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

The pitching in SF looks to be a bit better than the hitting next year.

Lincecum and Cain look to each provide 200+ innings of 30% better than average pitching. Madison Bumgarner is projected to check in with near 200 innings of 15% better than average left-handed throwing.

New millionaire, Ryan Vogelsong, came out of nowhere last year to pitch pretty well for the Giants. ZiPS thinks he can do it again, but that shiny sub 3.00 ERA won't be there as an 80% strand rate just isn't in Vsong's future again.

How much time is left on Zito's contract? ZiPS sees him as a solidly below average pitcher now who won't even throw a lot of innings.

Luckily (for Gnats fans), Eric Surkamp appears primed and ready to jump into the rotation. ZiPS likes him for 140 innings of slightly above average ball.


The bullpen should be solid as well. Sergio Romo will continue to be death to right-handed batters. Brain Wilson, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Jeremy Affeldt should also be solidly above average. ZiPS also likes some dude named Heath Hembree (23 year old righty) that I've never heard of before. He K'd a lot of dudes in A-ball last year.

Now the good news, the hitting should be pretty bad

Kung Foo Pandoval made a strong comeback last year, providing 42% more offense than an average hitter. ZiPS thinks that'll scale back a bit-26% better than average. I tend to disagree. I think Pandoval is the real thing.

The Giants hope for a return to from from Buster Posey who ... had this happen. And, yes, Buster Posey is still my pet name for his sister. Anywho, ZiPS likes him for a full season of 16% better than average hitting. That's a drop off from 2010, but that was to be expected.

Brandon Belt never got on track on track in his rookie season, hitting an average .306/.412. ZiPS likes him to improve that to 21% better than average.
Brett Pill, on the other hand, hit 30% better than average in 2011, but ZiPS thinks he'll be
below average (http://tinyurl.com/7to2bgb - broken link)-doesn't take a genius to tell you that though.

Speaking of below average, Aubrey Huff. He was miserable last year. Hitting 16% below average and playing some poor defense. ZiPS doesn't think he'll be as bad, but an average bat and terrible defense doesn't make a good player.

The Giants traded for the MelkMan to help out a terrible OF. Melky had a breakout year last year, hitting 18% better than average-his first season being above average. ZiPS is cautiously optimistic, projecting him for 6% better than average.

SS was a problem last year, and this year looks equally bleak. Mike Fontenot isn't good and Brandon Crawford doesn't look like he can hit enough to be a big-league player. ZiPS thinks he'll be 30% below average.

Another guy to mention is 23 year-old OFer Gary Brown. Brown put the screws to High-A last year hitting .407/.519. That was good enough for ZiPS to project him for a league average line. He's got blazing speed and is a strong defensive player. Doubtful that 2012 is his year, but put him on your radar.

[filihok]

Twinkies

Not really related but...
Twinkies maker Hostess seeks bankruptcy protection - WSJ.com

Anyway,

The Twins sucked last year. A big part of that reason was the lack of awesomeness out of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. ZiPS likes a resurgence from both players with both of them hitting more than 15% above the league average, but with some hits in playing time. Due to the nature of both of their injuries we really can't know what to expect.

Minny brought in Ryan Doumit as insurance at both positions, unfortunately, he's a bit fragile as well and ZiPS only likes him to hit 5% worse than average.

Also new to the team is Jamey Carroll, the new SS. Carroll was a surprise offensive contributor in LA hitting right at league average both his seasons in blue. ZiPS sees him dropping off quite a bit to 82% of the average.

2B should be interesting with Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka projected for similar hitting stats; both players falling into the 10-15% worse than average range.

Young 3Bman Danny Valencia, looked good at the end of 2010. Predictably, he hasn't been able to maintain that pace and is about 10% worse than an average hitter.

The OF will look a bit different with Cuddyer and Kubel moving on. Denard Spahn (7% worse than average with the bat but that's good for a CF and he plays great D) and Ben Revere (23% worse than average with the bat) will attempt to pick up the slack.

The offense looks pretty bad again.

The starting pitching doesn't look particularly impressive either.
Scott Baker is a solid starter (7% above average). Francisco Liriano should be in the rotation, but you never know what you'll get out of him (ZiPS sees him as average). Carl Pavano keeps plodding along pitching a bit below average but supplying some innings-there's value in that. The rest of the rotation will be filled out with below averagers Brain Duensing, Nick Blackburn, and Anthony Swarzak.

One bright spot is Liam Hendricks who should join the rotation at some point.

The bullpen, also not impressive.
Glenn Perkins came out of nowhere last year to post some impressive looking numbers. He should return to nowhere and the averageish pitching we've come to expect. I don't even know of anyone really interesting enough to mention after that.

Not high on the Twins next year

[Grandstander]

[quote=filihok;22507677][

Brett Pill, on the other hand, hit 30% better than average in 2011, but ZiPS thinks he'll be
below average (http://tinyurl.com/7to2bgb - broken link)-doesn't take a genius to tell you that though.

I'd like to see Pill given an opportunity to play this year. I doubt that he has much in the way of long range value, but I am struck by how often guys who first arrive in the majors during their prime, after years in the minors, fool us into thinking that they are going to be really good by having productive seasons. Of course what we are actualy seeing is prime play, not career ability, and these types often are one year wonders who hang around a few more seasons and then start selling real estate or whatever they are actually going to do for a living.

In short, if Pill is going to have value, it will be this year and/or next year, so the Giants may as well try and capitalize on it. I think Huff's 2010 was his last hurrah season and Belt has yet to establish that he can handle ML pitching.

If Pill does have a good season, I would then immediately trade him while the perception of his value was at its highest.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

I'd like to see Pill given an opportunity to play this year. I doubt that he has much in the way of long range value, but I am struck by how often guys who first arrive in the majors during their prime, after years in the minors, fool us into thinking that they are going to be really good by having productive seasons. Of course what we are actualy seeing is prime play, not career ability, and these types often are one year wonders who hang around a few more seasons and then start selling real estate or whatever they are actually going to do for a living.

In short, if Pill is going to have value, it will be this year and/or next year, so the Giants may as well try and capitalize on it. I think Huff's 2010 was his last hurrah season and Belt has yet to establish that he can handle ML pitching.

If Pill does have a good season, I would then immediately trade him while the perception of his value was at its highest.

There's some logic in this, but some problems as well.

While I don't think the Giants are world beaters in 2012 by any stretch, the NL West doesn't look that good. With their strong pitching the Giants may be in contention. Trusting 1B to Pill who may have a useful season in him may be the difference between getting into the crapshoot or not.

There are less and less dumb teams available to be taken advantage of. Ned Colletti looks like he'll have at least a portion of 2012 before the sale of the Dodgers is finalized and he's likely (hopefully) dismissed.

Not sure how much more Belt has to learn in AAA. If he needs to learn to hit major league pitching he likely needs to learn in the major leagues.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by filihok

While I don't think the Giants are world beaters in 2012 by any stretch, the NL West doesn't look that good. With their strong pitching the Giants may be in contention. Trusting 1B to Pill who may have a useful season in him may be the difference between getting into the crapshoot or not.

.

The alternatives are trusting that Huff will rejuvinate himself and return to 2010 form, or sending Belt out there and hoping that he improves. In sum, it will be a crapshoot at firstbase for SF regardless of which of those three is manning the position. Of the three I am the least optimistic about Huff. He has his money now, he has his championship ring, he is the least motivated to do well, he's already at the far right of the defensive spectrum and he turned 35 last month.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

The alternatives are trusting that Huff will rejuvinate himself and return to 2010 form, or sending Belt out there and hoping that he improves. In sum, it will be a crapshoot at firstbase for SF regardless of which of those three is manning the position. Of the three I am the least optimistic about Huff. He has his money now, he has his championship ring, he is the least motivated to do well, he's already at the far right of the defensive spectrum and he turned 35 last month.

Agree that Huff sucks

Now we're down to Belt and Pill

Pill was 7% better than the average AAA hitter last season
Belt was 1% better than the average major league hitter last season

I see no reason to think that, as of right now, Pill is a better hitter than Belt

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by filihok

Agree that Huff sucks


I see no reason to think that, as of right now, Pill is a better hitter than Belt

I don't really either, but his circumstances are such that I think it is worth finding out if that is the case, at least for the very immediate future.

Working against Pill's chances are:
A) Money, as in the ten million dollar salary which Huff will command in '12. The team is already eating the final year of the dismissed Rowan's fat contract and the idea of Huff sitting on the bench or hanging around as a pinch hitter for ten million clams will be annoying to the folks paying the bills. Huff will have to play very badly before they give up on him.
B) Prospect projection. Of course the Giants will be hoping that Belt comes through because a good performance from Belt will yield more dividends than an equal performance from Pill. Belt is younger, will remain under SF control longer, if he pans out he should have a good future. Pill is older and thus whatever he does this year and next, will probably represent the zenith of his contributions, wherever he is playing.

Because of those factors, Pill will be #3 in terms of chances extended to him to be the Giants firstbaseman. He will get the least amount of playing time among the trio, and will quickly get sent down if he doesn't play well right away.

Were I running the show I would extend the chances given to Pill, based on the possibility that he may be one of those career minor leaguers who has one or two good prime years to contribute. If Huff's career looks like it is trailing blue smoke in the first few weeks, I would not keep playing him on the basis of "he costs too much to not use him", I would give Pill a try.

Of course if Belt starts the year hitting the blue bejeebers out of the ball, he renders Huff and Pill inmaterial.

[filihok]

Things are on the verge of getting interesting in Kansas City

The Royals have 3 very good bats in their line up:
Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are all projected to be about 23% better than the average hitter. This represents a bit of regression on Gordon's part and some improvement for Hosmer.

Hosmer's BFF, Mike Moustakas struggled last year but is projected to be league average with the bat this season. I have higher hopes. However, even hitting 15% worse than average, Moustakas was worth about 1 WAR last year in part-time duty.

KC got surprising performances from Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera last year as both were about 15% better than average hitters. Cabrera was shipped off and Francoeur isn't likely to produce at that level again. Cabrera's replacement, Lorenzo Cain, will be about as far below average with the bat as Melky was above it.

2B Johnny Giovatella is another young Royal about to make some noise.

SS Alcides Escobar isn't much with the bat, 27% below average last season, but his defense and the low bar for SS's makes him a productive player. ZiPS thinks he'll be worth about 3 wins this year.

I don't know who'll be catching for KC this season, but 22 year old Salvadore Perez is knocking on the door. ZiPS likes him to hit just 12% worse than the average major leaguer. While that doesn't sound impressive, only 29 catchers (with over 150 PA's) were able to do that last season.


The starting pitching isn't there yet. KC has some excellent prospects, but they are still a year or two away.

Jonathan Sanchez' and Bruce Chen's averagenessish lead the way for KC.
Behind them are Luke Hochever and Felipe Paulino. All of these are useful pitchers but are more 3-5 guys than 1's and 2's.

Now for the youth brigade:
John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and Nathan Adcock are all under 25 and are all projected to pitch within 20% of a league average pitcher. There's also Vin Mazzaro, Jake Odorizzi, Noel Argueles and Will Smith a few steps below.

The Bullpen has some interesting arms.
Notably Joakim Soria. He struggled a bit last year, but ZiPS sees a pretty good rebound. Luis Coleman and Greg Holland also project to above average.

Jon Broxton, former Dodger closer, is also in the mix. I'll be interested to see how he rebounds.

[filihok]

Tampa Rays

Young pitching!!!
Matt Moore, 23, is projected to strike out over a batter an inning and throw 145 innings of 13% above average ball.
Alex Cobb, 24, is projected to be 6% above average
Jeremy Hellickson, 25, is projected to be 16% above average
David Price, 26, is projected to be 21% above average

James Shields and Jeff Neiman are also projected to be above average starters for the Rays. By my count that's 6 better than average starters. There's also Wade Davis who comes in just below average.

The team is stacked with starters.

The bullpen isn't quite as good, but a couple of starters could find their way into the pen.


The everyday guys aren't bad either.

Evan Longoria is projected to hit 40% better than the average major leaguer. He has a pretty good glove as well.
Ben Zobrist, at 20% better than the average hitter, has an excellent stick for a 2Bman. He's also an excellent defender.
New OFer Desmond Jennings looks to have an average bat, and excellent defense. That's a quite productive player.
Despite BJ Upton's proclivity for striking out, he's still better than an average hitter and, like most Rays players, he flashes the leather.
The Legend looks to hit about what he did last year. Reid Brignac and his 29% below average bat doesn't look to be the answer at SS.

This is going to continue to be a very good team