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The Phillies are apparently close to signing Jonathan Phapelbon for 4 years and $50 million.
This after a reported 4 year $44 million deal for Ryan Madson didn't materialize yesterday.
This seems like a lot of money for a reliever.
Papelbon has averaged about 66 innings a year over the last 6 seasons. At that rate Papelbon will pitch (66*4) 264 innings with the Phils. Or about 20 innings more than what Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia will give you in 1 season. Halladay is the best pitching in baseball. Anyone think Halladay is worth $50 million a season?
Now, to be fair, Papelbon does pitch more highly leveraged innings than Halladay. This is measured by pLI
Halladay's pLI for last season was 1.1. His career pLI is 1.05. A number greater than 1 means that he's been involved in slightly higher leverage than average (1.0) situations.
Papelbon's pLI for last season was 1.69. His career pLI is 1.83. His pLI in 2009 and 2010 was over 2.00.
Papelbon has produced 15.1 WAR in 429.3 career innings. That's 2.3 WAR / 66 innings
Halladay has produced 69.8 WAE in 2531 career innings. That's 1.8 WAR / 66 innings
Maybe there is some evidence that Papelbon should be paid a higher per inning rate than Halladay. But over twice as much?
On to the chart...
The chart assumes that the value of 1 WAR is $5.25 million (5% more than last season) and inflation continues at 5% per year. It also assumes that Papelbon produces 2.5 WAR in 2012 and 2013 and decreases to 2.0 WAR in 2014 and 2015. I feel that this is an optimistic prediction.
With those parameters we get Papelbon's expected production to be almost exactly $50 million. Remember, that's if everything goes right. Papelbon has to pitch, for the next 4 seasons, at a level greater than he's pitched the previous six years.
Now, the Phillies do have a lot of money. They are in a position to try and win now with a core of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Howard, Pence, Victorino, Chooch, etc so they do have more reason to 'go for it' than some other teams.
They also have to find a shortstop, outfielder, and part-time first baseman for next season.
An aggressive move for Philly.
For kicks, let's see how the numbers would have looked with Madson.
Madson has produced 1.3 WAR per 66 innings over the last 4 seasons. Quite a bit less than Papelbon.
If we re-create the chart with Madson as a 1.5 WAR pitcher this year and next and 1 WAR in both 2014 and 2015 we get:
Madson produces 5 WAR worth $28 million while being paid $44 million, putting the Phillies $16 million in the hole.
Maybe Phillie Phans should be dancing a little ***
Not to suggest that Minnesota is not the most interesting place in the world...
They've signed Jamey Carroll for 2 years and $7 million.
The Dodger's were panned when they signed Carroll for 2 years and $3.8 million. Now he's making twice that per year.
He certainly helped himself with his play in LA. Prior to coming to LA Carroll averaged 1.8 fWAR per 500 plate appearances. In his 2 years in LA he averaged 2.4 fWAR per 500 plate appearances. The increase was mostly with the bat. Prior to LA Carroll offense as measured by wRC+ was 15% less than the league average. With LA he hit 5% better than the league average. Colletti certainly got his money's worth. Will new Twins' GM Terry Ryan get the same return?
It's hard to predict a player playing his age 38 and 39 seasons will improve upon what he's done. It's hard to say that that player will remain the same.
Let's assume that Carroll's offense will hold constant. He didn't have any crazy BABIPs. He hit line drives. He took walks. He made contact. No out of control power numbers. In fact, Carroll's 2010 and 2011 numbers are pretty similar to his career numbers. Is increase relative to the league, is because the league average decreased. I think this makes it more likely that Carroll keeps on chugging along.
Defense may be a different story. Apparently, Carroll will be the Twins' starting SS.
Carroll was signed to be a backup IFer with LA. He ended up playing more than was likely expected since Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Juan Uribe couldn't stay healthy. Carroll played: 770 innings at 2B, 73 innings at 3rd and 1080 innings at SS. That's not a lot of innings but:
2010 2B: UZR/150 = 11.4
2010 SS: UZR/150 = 4
2011 2B: UZR/150 = -8
2011 SS: UZR/150 = -6
A weighted average gives us -2 UZR/150 at 2B and -1 UZR/150 at SS.
That both went from positive to negative is a concern.
According to Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report
In 2011 Carroll rated 3.34 on a scale of 1 - 5
In 2010 Carroll rated 3.45 on a scale of 1 - 5
Not much difference there.
Hard to draw too many conclusions about his defense.
On to the chart...
If Carroll gets 500 PA's I expect him to be worth about 2 fWAR. He put up 2.2 fWAR in 510 PA's last year. He seems to be able to defy aging, so instead of the .5 WAR dropoff I'm taking .25 WAR off in 2013. Assuming $5.25 million per WAR and 5% inflation, we get the following:
The Twins can expect $13 million of surplus value from Carroll. That's a lot of leeway. Carroll would only need to put up 1.3 WAR this year to earn the money for both years of his contract (1.3*5.25=7). So there's not much risk for the Twins.
Even if Carroll falls apart he sure to be an upgrade over what happened last year. Twins shortstops (Trevor Plouffe, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Matt Tolbert, and Alexi Casilla) combined to hit .238/.292/.320 and produce -1.4 WAR (prorated by innings at SS).
Carroll hit .290/.368/.344 for reference. Spending $3.5 million this year for a 3.5 WAR improvement is pretty efficient use of resources. We won't talk about the $3 million they are paying Nishioka.
Carroll is certainly a better player than Juan Rivera and Rod Barajas. 2011 Dodgers who both signed for 2 years and $8 million this week.
It'll be interesting to see how the market for guys like Clint Barmes and Jerry Hairston pans out.
The Brewers will explore another option for their hole at shortstop on Wednesday when general manager Doug Melvin meets with the representative of free agent Clint Barmes, a player the team has looked at before.
Barmes is a fine player, and that's a decent deal for him but why the Pirates?
First, they have a near major league ready SS in Chase D'arnaud. He looked bad in 150 plate appearances last year, but he should be a decent player. He can play SS for the Pirates for probably 6 years while making the same amount Barmes will in just 2.
Second, the Pirates need to sign high risk guys. Barmes is a steady performer, you know what you'll get-about 2 WAR. 2 WAR does zilch for Pittsburgh. They need to take shots on guys like Sizemore, Bedard, Haren. Players who could go off for 5 or more WAR seasons.
Barmes makes sense on a team like the Brewers where 2 wins might be the difference between playoffs and going home, not on the Pirates where 2 wins is the difference between 75 and 77.
I've been praising the Pirates recent moves but this one doesn't make sense.
EDIT: maybe this is a CBA casualty. Maybe the Pirates were 5 million under the floor and had to sign a player to get above it.
Last edited by filihok; 11-19-2011 at 03:20 PM..
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