Prince Fielder signs...with Detroit (playoffs, Royals, team, contract)

[filihok]

Originally Posted by scolls

Sure no left hander has hit more than 12 HR at Comerica, but lets look at the Tigers lefties since Pena. Granderson is the only one capable of doing it. Who else have the Tigers had from the left side? Carlos Guillen? Victor Martinez? Their not exactly power hitters.

Ganderson as a Tiger
HR's at home: 43 in 1522 PA's. Or 17 per 600 trips to the plate.
HR's away: 59 in 1297 PA's. OR 27 per 600 trips to the plate.

There's no reason Prince can't hit 35-40 HR. Comerica isn't any deeper to RF than most other parks. Right Field in Comerica is 330. Right Field in Miller Park is 345. Right Center in Comerica is 365. Right Center in Miller Park is 374. Comerica is actually small to right and right center. Prince Fielder will have no problem hitting the ball out of Comerica.

The problem isn't so much right-field as it is CF. CF in Miller Park is 400 feet. CF in Comerica is 420 feet.

Katron.org allows you to superimpose hits from one stadium onto another (note: this doesn't consider wind, altitude, weather, etc...)
Here are Prince's 2011 HR's in Miller Park superimposed onto Comerica

Prince Fielder isn't your average overweight player. According to your chart he should've already started to decline and hasn't. He will decline like every player will, but I doubt he'll be a sub 800 OPS player in his mid 30's.

He may or may not decline faster than an average player. We will never know that until after the fact. But, there is a lot of evidence that players like fielder decline faster than smaller players.

[scolls]

So he'll hit more doubles off the left field wall? With Cabrera and his 400+ OBP in front of him, I'll take it.

[scolls]

Oh and Prince Fielder will hit more than 12 HR at Comerica.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by scolls

Oh and Prince Fielder will hit more than 12 HR at Comerica.

Probably

Doesn't change the fact that Comerica reduces HR's by lefties

[scolls]

Originally Posted by filihok

Probably

Doesn't change the fact that Comerica reduces HR's by lefties

But Fielder isn't your typical lefty. He'll be at 35-40 HR by the end of the year. Comerica is tougher on righties than lefties and I don't care about anecdotal evidence of Tiger lefties not hitting HR. The Tigers have predominately been a right handed hitting team.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by scolls

But Fielder isn't your typical lefty.

In what way?

He'll be at 35-40 HR by the end of the year.

Time will tell.

Lefties hit less home runs in Comerica.

Lefties hit more home runs in Miller.

Fielder's home runs
In Miller: 123 in 1711 PA's. 43 HR / 600 PA's
Away from Miller: 107 in 1816 PA's. 35 HR / 600 PA's

Expect some decrease in Prince's HR's

Comerica is tougher on righties than lefties

This statement is not supported by the data

and I don't care about anecdotal evidence of Tiger lefties not hitting HR. The Tigers have predominately been a right handed hitting team.

You didn't read, or didn't understand, how park factors are calculated did you?

[scolls]

Comerica Park had a park factor of 103 which favored hitters. Prince Fielder is a different lefty as he is one of only 4 lefties to hit 50 or more HR in the past 10 years. He was 7th in MLB in offensive WAR last year, 4th in adjusted batting wins, 6th in runs created, 6th in OPS+, 5th in slugging etc. I didn't think I needed to explain that Fielder is a better hitter than most lefties.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by scolls

Prince Fielder is a different lefty as he is one of only 4 lefties to hit 50 or more HR in the past 10 years. He was 7th in MLB in offensive WAR last year, 4th in adjusted batting wins, 6th in runs created, 6th in OPS+, 5th in slugging etc. I didn't think I needed to explain that Fielder is a better hitter than most lefties.

And he did so in a park that boosts left-handed home runs by 18%. Now he's moving to a park that reduces left-handed home runs by 12%

That's going to make a difference.

[scolls]

What's funny is you used baseball-reference park factors which favored hitters in 2011. According to BR, the Tigers pythagorean win loss record should've been 89-73 but they won 95 games. I hate when people put together a bunch of subjective sabremetric stats and pass it off as gospel. There is really no way to say how many wins above replacement is going to be. That's using subjective stats and saying this is how you win a game. You're lumping Fielder in with lefties who are not in his class. Even so, last year Boesch and Avila had more HR at home than on the road.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by scolls

What's funny is you used baseball-reference park factors which favored hitters in 2011.

I used Statcorner's park factors.

According to BR, the Tigers pythagorean win loss record should've been 89-73 but they won 95 games.

Yeah, so?

I hate when people put together a bunch of subjective sabremetric stats and pass it off as gospel.

What is a subjective sabremetric stat?

There is really no way to say how many wins above replacement is going to be.

What does this mean?

That's using subjective stats and saying this is how you win a game.

Why do you keep saying that stats are subjective?

You're lumping Fielder in with lefties who are not in his class.

Where am I doing this?

Even so, last year Boesch and Avila had more HR at home than on the road.

Avila hit 1 more at home, and Boesch hit 2 more. What's your point?