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Old 02-05-2012, 08:47 PM
 
1 posts, read 827 times
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Alex Rodriguez is 36 years old, making $24 million for the next six seasons. After a .402 OBP in '09 he's just been good, not great, with a ~.350 OBP and ~.480 SLG. More worrisome than his lack of production are his injuries: he hasn't topped 138 games played since 2007.

Toss in his poor post-season play and seemingly perpetual distractions and would you even take six years of A-Rod for $15 million? $10 million? http://www.************.com/track.php?u=2 (broken link)
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Old 02-05-2012, 11:52 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevegxd View Post
Alex Rodriguez is 36 years old, making $24 million for the next six seasons. After a .402 OBP in '09 he's just been good, not great, with a ~.350 OBP and ~.480 SLG. More worrisome than his lack of production are his injuries: he hasn't topped 138 games played since 2007.

Toss in his poor post-season play and seemingly perpetual distractions and would you even take six years of A-Rod for $15 million? $10 million?
Since A-Rod signed his new deal prior to the 2008 season, he's produced about 19 WAR. He's been incredibly productive.

He's been worth the contract, up to this point.

Of course, he's aging and his production (and likely, health) will decline. And it is unlikely to be worth the entire contract.



My vote for worst contract.

Ryan Howard. Howard was set to earn about $40 with Philadelphia over the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Prior to 2010 Howard signed an extension paying him $25 million a season between 2012 and 2016. In 2010 and 2011 Howard produced about 3 WAR combined between the 2 seasons. Or about 75% of the production that A-Rod provides during a single season.

Now Howard's torn achilles puts his 2012 season, and future in doubt.

His new contract hasn't even started yet.

I'd take the A-Rod contract over the Howard contract every day of the week.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=2154,1274
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Old 02-06-2012, 08:56 AM
 
Location: NE PA
7,936 posts, read 13,864,869 times
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I'd still take Howard's deal, and I'm not just being a homer as a Phillies fan. He's younger, and if he rebounds from this Achilles injury, which he is expected to, and stays healthy and returns to potential, he will be well worth the deal. At 32, there is no reason he should decline if healthy. Plus, its only a 5 year deal, and I think I would take a 37 year old Howard over a 42 year old A-Rod.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Yuk View Post
I'd still take Howard's deal, and I'm not just being a homer as a Phillies fan. He's younger, and if he rebounds from this Achilles injury, which he is expected to, and stays healthy and returns to potential, he will be well worth the deal.
That just is not correct.

Howard will have to be worth about 5 Wins Above Replacement per season to justify his contract.

In his rookie season Howard produced 6 WAR. That was his only 5 WAR season.

Filihok: Adrian Gonzalez: Contract Analysis

Heres a bit I wrote about him a while ago in comparison to Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Texiera.
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,976 posts, read 18,573,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Yuk View Post
. At 32, there is no reason he should decline if healthy. .
The opposite is the truth, there is every reason to anticipate an aging player making smaller performance contributions.

The typical player peaks between the ages of 27 and 29 and it is the exception rather than the rule that a player after the age of 32, will have seasons as good or better than he had while in his prime.

Further, as players age, they become more susceptible to injuries and are unable to be in the lineup as frequently as they used to be. Playing time is also reduced by the increasing need for rest days. You wrote "...if he is healthy..." but that is a huge factor...they have a much harder time staying healthy.

Howard is showing the signs of conforming to the above described pattern. Below is a list of Howard's games played and OPS at each age since 26.

26..159..1.084
27..144...976
28..162...881
29..160...931
30..143...859
31..152...835

See anything there which would suggest that Howard is immune to the normal pattern of decline?

The argument isn't that it is impossible that Howard won't have another year like his MVP season in '06, but rather that statistics show that such a thing is very unlikely. Despite this, he will be earning the sort of money one associates with that '06 type performance. The Phillies will not be getting much bang for their bucks.
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:17 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
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I think the Giants Barry Zito would be a decent contender.
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Old 02-06-2012, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
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What if Pujols gets hurt bad in the first few years of his contract? Or Prince? Then we will see.
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Old 02-07-2012, 02:32 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The opposite is the truth, there is every reason to anticipate an aging player making smaller performance contributions.

The typical player peaks between the ages of 27 and 29 and it is the exception rather than the rule that a player after the age of 32, will have seasons as good or better than he had while in his prime.

Howard is showing the signs of conforming to the above described pattern. Below is a list of Howard's games played and OPS at each age since 26.

26..159..1.084
27..144...976
28..162...881
29..160...931
30..143...859
31..152...835
One thing about using pure OPS numbers is overall offense has been declining. Better to use OPS+ or wRC+ which relate the players' overall production to the average to get a relative measure.
31...123 wRC+ = 23% more productive than an average hitter.
30...126
29...141
28...120
27...135
26...162

I can.t say Howard is showing any signs of decline yet, what I can say is that his 2006 season skewed most people's thinking leading them to think that he's a better hitter than he actually is.

Hitters Age Like Wine — Power Like Cheese? | FanGraphs Baseball

Quote:
This graph shows that the average hitter's power peaks at 24/25 and starts to drop off rather considerably at 28/29.

So let's see if Howard's ISO has been dropping
31 .235
30 .229
29 .292
28 .292
27 .316
26 .346

There you go. Howard's power peaked at 26 and showed a huge drop at 30. No reason not to expect this trend to continue as Howard ages and comes back from injury.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:55 AM
 
Location: NY
9,072 posts, read 15,041,236 times
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A-Rod is certainly overpaid at this point in his career, but I would not classify it as the worst contract out there.

Howard's contract due to injury is about to turn into a huge liability too.

I think Alfonso Soriano's contract has to be up there ahead of A-Rod. He is still sort of productive too, but not to justify the $18 million he is getting.

The Dodgers signing Jason Schmidt to a 3 year, 47 million dollar deal only to see him pitch a total of 43.1 innings over those three years, going 3-6 with a 6.02 ERA.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
Reputation: 6637
The All Albatross Team
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