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Old 03-11-2012, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Statz2k10 View Post
Everybody always uses the NL West as that example I hate it. NL West has probably had more wild cards than any other division in the NL since the birth of the wild card.
If you look at the records every year, no other division winner has a lower winning percentage as the NL West especially as of recently. Usually after Philly there is a major dropoff normally for the NL as a whole but the NL West frequently has a division winner hovering slightly over .500
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Old 03-11-2012, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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In the NL, the wild card has been from the W and C six times each, and from the E five times. In the AL, from the E thirteen times, from the W three times, from the C once.

In both leagues, the wild card team has won the Division more often than not, by a 9-8 margin.

The Florida Marlins have never in their franchise history lost a post season series (6-0), and have never won a division title, but have won two World Series..
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Old 03-11-2012, 05:05 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,126 posts, read 8,017,991 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
In the NL, the wild card has been from the W and C six times each, and from the E five times. In the AL, from the E thirteen times, from the W three times, from the C once.

In both leagues, the wild card team has won the Division more often than not, by a 9-8 margin.

The Florida Marlins have never in their franchise history lost a post season series (6-0), and have never won a division title, but have won two World Series..
Thank you. Like I said the AL East is the strongest. It kind of loses a little when 3 teams can make it from there. Usually Toronto falls off and Baltimore is out early. This would almost definitely guarantee at least one WC from the east with a possibility of 2.
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Old 03-11-2012, 09:57 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Who said anything about second place teams? It is just the teams with the best record that didn't win a division and it can be from the same divisions. then they have a one game playoff to see who moves. Pretty simple.
I know how the new system is set up. My point is that if the best three teams in a league happen to be in the same division, at first thought there might be some appeal in the idea of having the best teams in the league all make the playoffs, but if you look at the situation more closely it's kind of meaningless when one of those three will automatically be gone after one game while the other clubs wait around for the main body of the playoffs even to begin.
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Old 03-12-2012, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogre View Post
I know how the new system is set up. My point is that if the best three teams in a league happen to be in the same division, at first thought there might be some appeal in the idea of having the best teams in the league all make the playoffs, but if you look at the situation more closely it's kind of meaningless when one of those three will automatically be gone after one game while the other clubs wait around for the main body of the playoffs even to begin.
I know about the 1 game playoff but I don't like the fact that 2 WC's can come from one division. It means that teams can cruise into the playoffs especially if you have a top notch #1 starter that you are obviously going to pitch in that one game.
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Old 03-12-2012, 08:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
I know about the 1 game playoff but I don't like the fact that 2 WC's can come from one division. It means that teams can cruise into the playoffs especially if you have a top notch #1 starter that you are obviously going to pitch in that one game.
Yeah, that is another disadvantage. The reality is that any arrangement that splits leagues into divisions and determines champions through playoffs has its drawbacks. At least a full series is a much better test of the resources an entire team can use, how deep the team is as a whole. The influence that a dominant performance by one pitcher can have on a game makes a one-game round just that much more problematic as a way to determine which teams are better and which teams move on.

Grandstander, speaking of how well one game compares to a series as a test of who is really better, correct me if I have this wrong, but it looks as if your conclusion that there's not a lot of difference unless the series is longer than just a few games is based on numbers alone, and the probability of getting a certain result based on the difference in the numbers as reflected in the winning percentages of good and bad teams, and their respective chances of winning any given game based on those percentages.

However, we're not talking about just numbers here. We're talking about the variations in athletic performance, especially varied in a game like baseball, where some of the key skills are as fine as batting and pitching. This is especially true with batting. Even good hitters have slumps, and even so-so hitters can have hot streaks at the plate. It's the aggregate effect of more and longer hot streaks, and fewer and briefer slumps, over the course of an entire season, that pegs a player as a good or great hitter. In any given game, anything can happen. If several players on a team happen to be cold at the plate on a given day, that team will lose that day's game, no matter how good they may be in general.

I think that perhaps a better way to determine the chances that a team has of winning a single game against a better team would be to look at all match-ups between good and so-so and lousy teams over the course of several seasons. I'm not suggesting that you really do this, because it would take hours, but I'm fairly confident that if you looked at how many times teams with losing records have won some games against above-.500 teams and then compared this to the number of times losing teams have won season series against winning teams, you'd find a substantial difference in the chances that a so-so team can win one game against anyone, versus their chances of sustaining that success over a series.
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Old 03-13-2012, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
10,793 posts, read 6,516,732 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogre View Post
However, we're not talking about just numbers here. We're talking about the variations in athletic performance, especially varied in a game like baseball, where some of the key skills are as fine as batting and pitching. This is especially true with batting. Even good hitters have slumps, and even so-so hitters can have hot streaks at the plate. It's the aggregate effect of more and longer hot streaks, and fewer and briefer slumps, over the course of an entire season, that pegs a player as a good or great hitter. In any given game, anything can happen. If several players on a team happen to be cold at the plate on a given day, that team will lose that day's game, no matter how good they may be in general.

.
1) Your perception of the fairness of a one game playoff will have been based on the records of the teams involved. There isn't a way to quantify odds based on any of the other considerations you mentioned.

2) Assuming all you say above is true, the problem remains that a three game series doesn't change any of it in terms of fairness. Slumps, hot streaks etc, are no more or less likely to determine the outcome of a three game series than they are a one game playoff.

All that is being changed is the perception of fairness, not the actual fairness.
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Old 03-13-2012, 10:51 AM
 
871 posts, read 1,200,935 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
I know about the 1 game playoff but I don't like the fact that 2 WC's can come from one division. It means that teams can cruise into the playoffs especially if you have a top notch #1 starter that you are obviously going to pitch in that one game.
I see that as an advantage for the division winners. If those wild card teams use there Roy Halladays or Clayton Kershaws to make it into the playoffs that means those ACE pitchers likely will only get 1 game in the divisional series instead of 2. I do not like the 5 game series which is why I'm in favor of this expansion. With a 5 game series there isn't enough incentive to win the division if you can just settle for the wild card. A wild card is at an even level when they make it to the divisional series and I think they should be at certain disadvantages.
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Old 03-13-2012, 06:48 PM
 
5,181 posts, read 8,577,909 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
1) Your perception of the fairness of a one game playoff will have been based on the records of the teams involved. There isn't a way to quantify odds based on any of the other considerations you mentioned.

2) Assuming all you say above is true, the problem remains that a three game series doesn't change any of it in terms of fairness. Slumps, hot streaks etc, are no more or less likely to determine the outcome of a three game series than they are a one game playoff.

All that is being changed is the perception of fairness, not the actual fairness.
I'm not sure why you've compared one game to a three-game series in a couple of responses to my posts. I haven't advocated expanding this wild card round to three games. My view is that we should stay with the system that has been in place since the mid '90's and drop this whole idea of two wild cards per league.
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Old 03-14-2012, 12:24 PM
 
3,109 posts, read 2,548,889 times
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i chuckle in disgust because back in the 1990's all this nonsense could've been avoided had they simply said the wild card gets 0 home games in the LDS and only 1 home game in the LCS. then if the WC makes it to the WS, then they are given no penalties (that's the reward - respect, baby). this idea (mine) is also good for each franchise because then the ballpark and each franchise have extra incentive to get as many home games in the playoffs as possible (to sell beer, hot dogs etc etc)

oh well! now it's convoluted! (disgusted laughter)

seeds! buahahahah puke
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