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Old 08-26-2012, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Rough debut for Loney.

First, he's replacing Gonzalez.

Second he had to field a tricky short-hop throw from Ciriaco.

Then had to elude Alex Gordon's broken bat.
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Old 08-26-2012, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Gonzalez starts his Dodger career with a HR.

Loney hits into a double play in his first Red Sox at bet
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Old 08-26-2012, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Just witnessed a double off the Green Monster.

Awesome!
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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In their game against the Marlins today, the first four hitters in the LA lineup went

#1 3 for 5
#2 1 for 3 with 2 walks
#3 1 for 3 with 2 walks
#4 2 for 4

They reached base a collective 11 times..so how come the Dodgers only scored two runs in the game?

Gonzalez has been hitting up a storm, but in his first two games his contributions have been entirely superfluous. He hit a three run homer in the LA 8-2 win on Saturday, which would have been a 5-2 win without him. Today he drove in one of the two Dodger runs in their 6-2 loss which would have been a 6-1 loss without Adrian.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:06 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
In their game against the Marlins today, the first four hitters in the LA lineup went

#1 3 for 5
#2 1 for 3 with 2 walks
#3 1 for 3 with 2 walks
#4 2 for 4

They reached base a collective 11 times..so how come the Dodgers only scored two runs in the game?

Gonzalez has been hitting up a storm, but in his first two games his contributions have been entirely superfluous. He hit a three run homer in the LA 8-2 win on Saturday, which would have been a 5-2 win without him. Today he drove in one of the two Dodger runs in their 6-2 loss which would have been a 6-1 loss without Adrian.
Hanley Ramirez' 0-4 was the killer.

He struck out in the 1st with runners at 1st and 2nd. This play decreased the Dodgers' win expectancy by about 4%.
He lined out in the 2nd with a runner at 2nd, decreasing LA's win expectancy by another 3%.
With the bases loaded in the 5th, he popped up to SS. This decreased LA's WE by 11%
1st and 3rd in the 7th, Hanley struck out, decreasing LA' WE by 11%
Hanley led off the 9th with a walk, his only positive offensive play of the day, a 3% gain for LA.

On the day, Hanley's total 'contribution' to the offense was -.269 of a win. All other Dodger batters combined for +.033 of a win.

Not Hanley's best day.

Adrian Gonzalez' 2-4 increased LA's WE by about 18%.
His 3-run HR in his first game increased LA's WE by 15%. His total contribution in that game was 13%.
In two games Gonzalez has provided about 1/3 of a win.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Adrian Gonzalez' 2-4 increased LA's WE by about 18%.
His 3-run HR in his first game increased LA's WE by 15%. His total contribution in that game was 13%.
In two games Gonzalez has provided about 1/3 of a win.
I understand that the above is the correct way to evaluate a player's contribution, however if one wanted an exact accounting, that is examing the player's contribution day by day relative to what was needed by his team to win on that day, we would have a precise record of what he contributed toward a winning season rather than a well crafted, but still theoretical one.

In the case of these last two games, Gonzalez has indeed, in theory, advanced LA's win chances by the amounts listed above. In reality he was not actually needed, he had two superfluous games.

In the same manner that a particular stolen base, if followed by a home run or several hits in a row, was a supefluous act, a player having a big day can just be making noise if his team is winning or losing by a amount larger than that player's contributions.

And of course this would be an unfair rating system relative to the means you are applying above, unfair because it holds a player accountable for everything that happened in the game, not just what he did or failed to do.

But, it would be the most precise account of how much the player meant to his team.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:32 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I understand that the above is the correct way to evaluate a player's contribution, however if one wanted an exact accounting, that is examing the player's contribution day by day relative to what was needed by his team to win on that day, we would have a precise record of what he contributed toward a winning season rather than a well crafted, but still theoretical one.

In the case of these last two games, Gonzalez has indeed, in theory, advanced LA's win chances by the amounts listed above. In reality he was not actually needed, he had two superfluous games.

In the same manner that a particular stolen base, if followed by a home run or several hits in a row, was a supefluous act, a player having a big day can just be making noise if his team is winning or losing by a amount larger than that player's contributions.

And of course this would be an unfair rating system relative to the means you are applying above, unfair because it holds a player accountable for everything that happened in the game, not just what he did or failed to do.

But, it would be the most precise account of how much the player meant to his team.
A few problems, your method assumes that all the events in a game are independent of each other. That each player would have performed exactly the same had a single event been changed. This is almost certainly false.

First, the events in the game would have been grouped differently. For example, if A-Gon had made out instead of homering in his first Dodger at bat he would have been the first out of the inning.
Hanley's K would have been the 2nd.
Ethier would have singled
Rivera's flyout would have been the 3rd out.

Instead of Ellis singling with 2 out, he would have led off the 2nd inning with a single.
Instead of Kershaw hitting with 2 out and striking out, he would have been hitting with 0 out and a runner at first - most likely he would have sacrificed.
Then Mark Ellis' homer, instead of being a solo shot leading off the 2nd would have been a 2-run homerun...
and so on, and so forth.

Second, we can't assume that each subsequent hitter would have had the same outcome.
When A-Gon homered in the bottom of the first the next batter, Hanley Ramirez, struck out with the bases empty. However, if A-Gon had...struck out...then when Hanley hit the situation would have been entirely different. Johnson would have been pitching from the stretch and not the wind-up, defenders would have been in different positions on the field since they would have been holding runners on, etc... This almost certainly changes the situation and, therefore, the outcome of the at bat.


Third, imagine this scenario. The Dodgers beat the Giants 9 - 0. Each Dodger hitter hits a solo homerun during the course of the game (Kershaw also pitches a perfect game). We can say that Victorino's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others and the Dodgers only needed a single run to beat San Fran. We can say that Eillis' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that Kemp's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that A-Gon's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that Ethier's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that Hanley's HR was superfluous, there were 9 others, we can say that Cruz' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that AJ Ellis' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that Kershaw's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. Every HR was superfluous. But how can that be?

Last edited by filihok; 08-26-2012 at 09:56 PM..
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,028 posts, read 18,583,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post

Third, imagine this scenario. The Dodgers beat the Giants 9 - 0. Each Dodger hitter hits a solo homerun during the course of the game (Kershaw also pitches a perfect game). We can say that Victorino's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others and the Dodgers only needed a single run to beat San Fran. We can say that Eillis' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that Kemp's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that A-Gon's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that Ethier's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. We can say that Hanley's HR was superfluous, there were 9 others, we can say that Cruz' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that AJ Ellis' HR was superfluous-there were 9 others, we can say that Kershaw's HR was superfluous-there were 9 others. Every HR was superfluous. But how can that be?
In the above case we could rule that the first home run was relevant and all that followed were superfluous, running up the score as it were.

Speaking of superfluous, why did you write out the entire scenario batter by batter, when "Each batter hits a home run and we can say each was superfluous" would have served?

Nits having been picked, your points are valid. The inability to assume that following events would remain unchanged moves us from a cold count to the theoretical, frustrating the purpose.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:42 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Speaking of superfluous, why did you write out the entire scenario batter by batter, when "Each batter hits a home run and we can say each was superfluous" would have served?
I misspelled superfluous the first time...


Simpsons Chalkboard Punishment - YouTube
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Old 08-27-2012, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
Reputation: 6637
Today in baseball...

...the debut of Casey Kelly. Kelly is a right-handed starter for the Padres.

Casey has excellent control, never having walked more than 8% of the batters he's faced.
Historically, he hasn't struck out many, around 20%, but since coming back from injury early in the season, he's been K'ing about 30% of hitters.
He gets a good amount of ground balls, 50%

If Kelly could get 50% ground balls, walk 8% of hitters and K 20% of hitters he'd be Chad Billingsley or Edwin Jackson

If the K% gets up to 25%, then he's David Price or Gio Gonzalez

If the K% stays around 30%, then he's, well, Stephen Strasburg with more groundballs.
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