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Old 04-27-2012, 06:56 AM
Status: "Moon landing 50th anniversary July 20." (set 17 hours ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
46,879 posts, read 37,054,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Laker View Post
Marlins just finished off what turned out to be a 5 game road trip. SPs had 5 quality starts and went 6.84 innings on average ... combined ERA of 1.82

Despite that the Marlins found a way to go 0-5
Their offense is slow getting going.
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Old 04-27-2012, 11:04 AM
 
9,029 posts, read 16,438,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by case44 View Post
Their offense is slow getting going.
Yep and the bullpen hasn't helped them a ton

Heath Bell has blown 3 saves and came really close to letting a 4th get away from him .... having an impossible time finding the strike zone with his regular stuff and what he's throwing over is pretty meaty
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Old 04-29-2012, 03:22 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Can you show me the raw data that led to that 98%? He's given up 16 H and 6 BB, which is 22. Four runs and four DP and one CS leaves 13 runners stranded. Which looks to me more like 61%. Even if you count all runners who did not score as "stranded", it's only 82%. How did you get 98%, and what's the MLB average? Last year for Verlander and Halladay it was 69 and 74. If Lynn's "stranded" rate was the same, his ERA would be 2.00, because his Whip is 0.77, which is respectable by anybody's standards.

You can't take a pitcher with a Whip of 0.77 and cherry-pick one isolated stat to diminish that because of his stranded rate. OK, so with average luck, he'd have a whip of 0.77 and an ERA of 2.00 and a record of 3-1 or 3-0 with a ND, because a couple more of his baserunners would usually score. What's wrong with 0.77 and 2.00 and 3-1?
Hmm...Looks like the 98% strand rate was incorrect. I took it from Fangraphs. They now have Lynn with a 100% strand rate, which is, also, obviously incorrect.

The main point still remains though.

I think Lynn is a good pitcher. He strikes out enough, without walking too many and gets a lot of groundballs. He should be successful. No way he's going to end the season with anything like a 2.00 ERA and .77 WHIP.

His peripheral stats indicate that pitchers throughout baseball history who have pitched similarly to how he has thus far have given up between 3 and 3.5 runs per 9 innings.
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Old 04-29-2012, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,034 posts, read 18,583,829 times
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As of this morning, 10 of the 14 AL teams are at .500 or better. Of the four sub .500 teams, three are in the AL Central, the surprisingly inept Angels being the exception. (Angels are already nine games behind the Rangers.)

None of the AL Central teams have outscored their opposition, all of the AL East teams have.

In the NL Central, five of the six teams are below .500.
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Old 04-29-2012, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
72,004 posts, read 83,671,479 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
As of this morning, 10 of the 14 AL teams are at .500 or better. Of the four sub .500 teams, three are in the AL Central, the surprisingly inept Angels being the exception. (Angels are already nine games behind the Rangers.)

None of the AL Central teams have outscored their opposition, all of the AL East teams have.

In the NL Central, five of the six teams are below .500.
Certainly not the same Angels as a few years ago, I wonder what has happened? It looks like the Rangers are on a roll and should be the laeders at the end, just like now, but of course, it is still early. It will be interesting to see how many of the leaders will still be there in about 4 months?
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Old 04-29-2012, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Mequon, WI
7,836 posts, read 19,579,871 times
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Watched the O's game today, really like what I see from Nolan Reimold. Another great comeback win by the O's the original Milwaukee Brewers team. Plus listening to Gary Thorne is a great way to watch a ballgame.
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Old 04-29-2012, 09:56 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,292,936 times
Reputation: 36087
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Hmm...Looks like the 98% strand rate was incorrect. I took it from Fangraphs. They now have Lynn with a 100% strand rate, which is, also, obviously incorrect.
.
The formula for strand rate is

LOB% = (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR))

Which doesn't look like it tells anything whatsoever about runners stranded. Lynn's current strand rate is 18/17.8, which is 101%, which is about as realistic as the square root of -1, and is trying to tell us something that we don't really want to know, which has absolutely nothing to do with runners left on base in the universe we are all familiar with. Looks like the statisticians have pulled (1.4*HR) completely out of their butts. Which how they adjust a statistic that doesn't work.

Lynn has allowed 22 base runners, and only four scored. Divide 18 not scored by 22 on base, and call his strand rate .82, and anything more complicated than that is sabermetric masturbation.

Last edited by jtur88; 04-29-2012 at 10:23 PM..
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Old 04-30-2012, 06:20 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
The formula for strand rate is

LOB% = (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR))

Which doesn't look like it tells anything whatsoever about runners stranded. Lynn's current strand rate is 18/17.8, which is 101%, which is about as realistic as the square root of -1, and is trying to tell us something that we don't really want to know, which has absolutely nothing to do with runners left on base in the universe we are all familiar with. Looks like the statisticians have pulled (1.4*HR) completely out of their butts. Which how they adjust a statistic that doesn't work.
First, thanks for pointing this out to me. I always assumed that LOB% was runners stranded. That's what one gets for assuming.

Not sure what universe you are familiar with but runners allowed (H+BB+HBP) less runs allowed (R) looks like runners left on base to me.

I'm not sure what the rational for 1.4 * HR is (I'd guess the average home run drives in 1.4 runs, but that's a guess) but it's unlikely that the satisiticians pulled it out of their butts.
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Old 04-30-2012, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,292,936 times
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I was referring to the familiar universe in which runners left on base cannot exceed runners put on base.
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Old 04-30-2012, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,034 posts, read 18,583,829 times
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What is confusing about "LOB" is that it may be calculated in differing ways. There is the actual total of runners remaining on base when each inning ends, but then if you calculate by individual hitters, the number is larger because more than one batter can strand the same runner or runners.

Soandso leads off and walks, followed by Jobleau who is hit by a pitch, followed by Moe, Larry and Curly who all strike out. So there were actually just two runners left on base, but they were left stranded first by Moe, then by Larry and finally by Curly. Since they each stranded two runners, that is six runners LOB. If you totaled all the stranded runners by individual hitters, then you wind up with the situation jtur references above, more runners stranded than actually were on base.

Then if you want to get esoteric about it, you could charge a guy who drives in a run when the bases are loaded, with stranding the other two runners.
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